Current Touts

The bullish pattern shown is so fetchingly gnarly that we could expect it to work a second time for a 'mechanical' buy if the futures revisit the green line (x=69.78).  Another feature of the pattern is that it looks likely to reach the D target at 72.31, notwithstanding that the initial upside penetration of the midpoint Hidden Pivot was feeble. A run-up to the target would be a shame, especially if it is merely prelude to an even bigger rally, since gas prices have recently fallen below the $3 level for the first time in a long while. They hit $2.92 last week in the rural North Carolina town I am visiting, but if my forecast has got it right, pump prices will soon be headed once again above $3.00.

The short-term picture is deceptively bullish and also stale, so I've replaced it with a longer-term chart that shows how little there is to hope for.  Nothing impulsive has occurred on the weekly chart since the futures made their low last October in the murky depths of the Marianas Trench. Assuming the Fed continues to tighten for longer than most of us would care to imagine, all of the flouncing around in Treasury bonds since then could turn into a distribution that would send TLT down to the low 90s for a test of support. There could even be a breach of the low, although it seems doubtful that the very high real rates that would imply could be achieved without toppling the global financial system. This poses quite a dilemma -- one that for reasons I've long tried to make clear, can only end in a ruinous debt deflation.

Once again, we look for AAPL to tell us what the stock market might do next. The chart shows last week's high to have occurred just a hair from a key long-term resistance at 189.07, a Hidden Pivot midpoint associated with an ambitious bull-market target at 253.96.  The actual high so far has been 187.56, fully $1.50 shy of the midpoint. That's not quite close enough to warrant buying put options, but it would be no stretch to infer that an important top was made there last week. We'll know soon, especially if the stock's corrections on the lesser intraday charts begin to exceed their p or D supports. _______ UPDATE Jun 26, 11:57 p.m.): This morning's head-fake sevened out $1 shy of the target, possibly because the pattern was obvious enough to attract the attention of riff-raff and mouth-breathers. It could be just organic weakness, though, so be prepared for the so-far modest retracement to pick up tempo. ______ UPDATE (June 27, 9:35 p.m.): With the stock trading just a hair beneath the 189.07 target noted above, subscribers bought July 180 puts expiring 7/14 for 0.50, pennies off the intraday low. Sit tight for now.  

The September contract overshot the 4471.00 target shown by a relatively small 22 points, but that's enough to imply that the so-far modest retracement is just that -- a correction to be bought rather than feared. We should not simply jump back in, though, without testing the water.  Even if the downtrend accelerates, though, it should be easily tradeable in either direction using the reverse patterns that have become our workhorse. For now, use the 4369.00 target shown here as a minimum downside projection and a place to attempt bottom-fishing as the new week begins. _______ UPDATE (Jun 26, 11:53 p.m.): The futures have bounced 12 points after bottoming just two ticks (0.50 points) from the 4369.00 target flagged above. The low occurred at exactly 4:00 p.m., however -- a time of day when I am disinclined to open a position that would put my peace of mind at risk during the evening. If you did the trade, though, I'd suggest being out of at least half of it at current levels. Please let me know in the chat room so that I can determine whether to provide further guidance. ______ UPDATE (Jun 27, 9:43 p.m.): The futures extended the rally with a wilding spree that topped 55 points above the 4369 low where I'd suggested bottom-fishing. With the Fourth of July holiday approaching, bullish seasonality will be at gale force.

The rally's second stage was shaky at the outset in early June, but it now looks as though this T-Bond proxy will reach D=104.41, the minimum upside objective since June 15, when TLT gapped up through a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 102.60. We should play close attention to the way buyers interact with the target, since it could tell us whether the bond rally is likely to get legs. An easy move through 104.41 or two consecutive daily closes above it would be the most bullish sign we've seen since March.

With 'Doc' Copper tiptoeing higher, we should prepare for a possible opportunity to short the July contract 'mechanically' if and when the futures get to the green line (x=4.026). The week ended on a downstroke that would require a last-gasp rally to reach our goal. This is a potential $65,000 winner on four contracts, with commensurate entry risk, so we would want to initiate the trade with a 'camouflage' trigger capable of drastically shrinking the initial exposure. I have no indication that subscribers trade this vehicle, but please let me know in the chat room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (Jun 28, 5:56 p.m.): The shorting opportunity is past, since the futures have sold off hard since narrowly missing our offer. The 2.956 downside target noted here earlier remains in play. 

August Gold looks bound for a minimum 1903.90, but if that Hidden Pivot support gives way, look for the downtrend to continue to at least 1875.00. (A related p2 support at 1906.40 could also engender a precise, tradeable bounce).  Both of those numbers can be bottom-fished with 'reverse' patterns and a theoretical trigger interval of $11. Since that would imply entry risk of more than $4000 on four contracts, you should initiate the trade only via an rABC set-up on the 15-minute chart or less and initial risk held to no more than $200 per contract.

July Silver caught a bounce from the 22.06 secondary Hidden Pivot last week, but that won't save it from a further fall to the 21.205 target shown in the chart (inset). That much is clear from Wednesday's crushing breach of p=22.91.   The pattern looks too obvious to deliver a precise bounce, but a tradeable turn from very near the target seems unavoidable.  So far, the 'natural' trigger interval on a reverse-pattern entry would be 25 cents, but we'll look for alternative ways to get aboard (i.e., 'camouflage'), since the implied entry risk on four contracts would be around $5,000.

Relentless weakness since mid-April finally triggered the 'mechanical' buy at x=35.58 that we've awaited for a month. Such signals are supposed to come at times when they are unappealing, but in this case the opportunity, such as it is, looks so dim that I'll suggest waiting for lower lows before we attempt an entry. With bearish forecasts for both gold and silver futures in force, and the prospect of a further decline in this vehicle to C=32.25, there is no rush to get aboard.