The Dollar Index rallied just enough last week to trigger a 'mechanical' short at the green line (x=102.80). The trade is predicated on further slippage to at least D=98.71, the target of a bearish pattern measured from November 2022. Just to get on record with this, there is room for even more weakness down to as low as 93.55. That's a Hidden Pivot support derived from a higher point 'A', the 113.15 peak recorded a couple weeks earlier in November 2022.
The September contract has signaled an all but certain rally to the 4576.25 target shown in the chart (see inset). The pattern is unorthodox but meets our all of our criteria for usability. Most immediately, it would enable a compelling 'mechanical' buy following a corrective swoon to p=4396.13 (for which a 4336.00 stop-loss would apply). A deeper retracement to the green line (x=4306.06) would be even more enticing as a place to bottom-fish. One or both of these numbers could conceivably be reached, since, as I've detailed elsewhere on this page, two bellwether stocks look ripe for punitive corrections.
AAPL appears very likely to achieve the 191.73 target shown in the chart (inset), since the stock has spent two weeks above the Hidden Pivot midpoint (p=184.53) after impaling it on June 15 with an opening-bar gap. A swooning retracement to the green line (x=180.92) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy that you should not pass up if you trade the stock. Nudge me in the chat room when appropriate and I may be able to craft a risk-averse trigger for playing the bounce with call options.
What looked like the start of a promising rally in early May turns out to have been just a drum-roll for yet another head-fake. The uptrend was mildly impulsive on the lesser charts at first, but the end result was a 'mechanical' shorting opportunity at the green line (x=104.09). This implies the Dollar Index could fall to D=98.71 before it finds a foothold. This should be at least slightly bullish for bullion, but we've seen that the effect is often so feeble as to be negligible.
Last week's Whoopee Cushion bounce came just in time to rescue the faintly bullish pattern on the rightmost side of the chart (inset). If the subsequent selloff resumes this week, causing TLT to land on the green line (x=101.69) with a thud, that would trigger a moderately attractive 'mechanical' buy. It would not be predicated on a run-up to the 'D target, however, but rather on a one-level ride to p that could produce a small gain with good odds nonetheless, even with call options.
The stock market is in the grip of mass insanity, blithely ignoring warning signs of recession and the certain collapse of commercial real estate. How high could it go? To stretch your imagination, I've reproduced the weekly chart to show how 6136 is possible -- 1788 points (41%) above the current 4348. This is not to suggest that a bear market collapse from last week's high is not possible; it could indeed happen. But it seems unlikely, given that the 27% drop from Jan 2022's 4808 peak couldn't even generate an impulse leg. That would have required a further fall of 304 points beneath the 3502 low recorded in October. Under the circumstances, the rally since then seems likely to reach p=4819 at a minimum. Look for a temporary peak there that is tradeable, but don't count on it to work precisely, since the chart is a composite of ABC coordinates from different contract months.
The extravagant, 253.96 target clearly visible in the weekly chart (inset) corresponds to one that I've proffered this week for the E-Mini S&Ps. First things first, though, since AAPL will need to demolish p=189.07 to be rated an odds-on bet to achieve so ambitious a 'D' objective. As an added precaution, and to deny Mr. Market even a small chance of fooling us, we should keep in mind this less ambitious chart, with a 204.01 target extrapolated from a lesser point 'A' low drawn. We need consider this number only if and when 189.07 is exceeded. The chart also allows for the possibility of a correction off last week's high -- or conceivably even the start of a bear market, since a stall has occurred at the secondary pivot (p2), a notoriously difficult impediment for bulls.
Yet another week of tedious slop produced no change in my bullish outlook for the intermediate- and long-term. For now, August Gold's correction is targeted on 1903.90, a 3.5% drop from last week's settlement price. Neither bears nor bulls have shown more than slight interest in bullion since early March, and both will likely be bored out of their minds before the bullish trend resumes in earnest. The first hint of this would come on a pop above 2006.20, the 'C' high of the pattern shown. Otherwise, expect the weak, downward dirge to continue. ______ UPDATE (Jun 16,): The presumably meaningless rally that ended the week triggered the fourth 'mechanical' short since May 30. The first three produced a theoretical profit of $10,000 apiece on four contracts. Here's a fresh chart that shows gold's pooch-screwing price action. _______ UPDATE (June 20, 1:58 p.m.): With gold in its wonted gold-is-garbage mode, the 1903.90 downside target is looking increasingly likely to be reached -- and precisely, given the umpteen bounces the futures have taken from p=1956.10. An arguably even more appealing pattern projecting to 1892.10 will be in play if 1903.90 is exceeded by more than $1.00 or so. I say 'more appealing' because of the pert little alternative one-off 'A' at 2087 recorded on May 4.
The rally from May 26's 22.78 low would become an enticing 'mechanical' short if it touches the green line (x=25.19), as seems likely. Initial risk would be a little more than $4000 per contract, so the trade is recommended only to those of you who know how to cut that by at least 90% using a 'camouflage' trigger. If there is sufficient interest in the chat room, I will provide guidance in real time. We would be shooting not for a drop to 'D', but for a single-level profit predicated on exiting at p=23.946. A fall to D=21.46 would still be a theoretical possibility, however. ______ UPDATE (Jun 16): Yet another week of excruciating tedium told us nothing we didn't know a month ago. Even the crime syndicate that manipulates bullion futures seems too bored to bother. The analysis above can stand as given.
The post-covid bull market begun in the final quarter of 2020 is running out of room, at least on the daily chart. The 184.86 target shown, a Hidden Pivot resistance, is not the highest that can be projected, but it still looks capable of restraining the charge, if only for a short while. Sliding 'A' down to the 118.70 low recorded on March 4, 2021, produces an alternative high at 190.90, but we'll wait to see how buyers handle D=184.86 before we raise our sights. To stretch your bullish imagination, but also to be on record with a seemingly outrageous forecast, let me introduce a 253.96 target with this weekly graph. We'll be better able to make book if the stock exceeds 184.96 and stalls at the 189.07 midpoint. That would make 253.96 more plausible as an objective, especially if AAPL stabs through p=189.07 and closes above it the same week. ______ UPDATE (Jun 5, 2:35 p.m.): AAPL has plummeted from a spike high at 184.95 that missed my target (boldfaced above in green) by nine cents. Because the stock is the most important stock-market bellwether of them all -- "the only stock that matters" -- we should be alert to the possibility that the broad averages have put in a major top today. Addendum, 6:49 p.m.: I doubt it, especially since the selling was triggered by 'news' that was bound to affect mainly rubes, yokels, and riff-raff who trade the stock, but that's no reason to take our eyes off a chart that is incapable of lying or even misleading._______ UPDATE (Jun 7, 5:52 p.m.): Monday's spike on 'goggle news' has left AAPL top-heavy. This chart suggests the stock will need to come down into the range 170-175 range to consolidate for the next thrust toward $200.
