I have outstanding targets on the monthly chart as high as 7499, but this truncated view is the one we should focus on for now, since it is growing clearer and more compelling by the day. It has produced three winning trades so far: a conventional 'buy' at the green line; a short from the red line, and a 'mechanical' buy on the pullback to the green line. This suggests that p2=6621 and D=6749 will also be usable and reliable for producing profits. However, because buyers did not exactly impale p=6494 on first contact, or even on the second, there can be no guarantees the target will be reached. The secondary pivot (p2=6621) ) is another matter, however, and its attainment will become a lock-up if the futures end the coming week resting above it. In the meantime, yet another relapse to the green line, however unlikely, should be treated as an attractive 'mechanical' buying opportunity.
My outlook is still bullish, with a 593.73 target in play that was introduced here last week. This chart offers a different view, however -- one that suggests the stock would become an opportune buy when the correction comes down to p=493.67, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of a pattern I've cloaked for proprietary reasons. You should use a trigger interval taken from the hourly to initiate the trade, but it cannot be calculated accurately until the stock is close to p. As of now, it looks like $2.08 TI should do the trick, but a more timely calculation could help to reduce that number. As always, a decisive breach of the midpoint support would shorten the odds of more slippage to the 'd' target -- in this case 431.89.
October Gold took off last week from a low that missed our stingy bid by $9, or 0.2%. Friday's rally in bullion was of a piece with lunatic buying in stocks triggered by blather from Powell. However, I don't see gold as being on the verge of a melt-up like the one I'm predicting for stocks. I've highlighted Friday's rally to show how insignificant it was amidst four months of meaningless dithering. Yes, the move could conceivably turn into something worth watching. But there is little point in getting all het-up about it now. When that finally happens, the futures should be presumed on their way to 3710.70.
The reverse pattern shown stops short of greenlighting a rally into the void, although it says that a move to at least d=39.865 is practically certain. Move the point 'A' to a visually more obvious place, one low to the left, and it projects a higher 'D' target at 40.605. I am not skeptical that it will be reached, but I'll be curious to see how such an obvious pattern screws with bulls' heads. Our short-term trading bias will remain bullish in any case, but I'd suggest negotiating your entries at p or d pivots of rABC patterns on the hourly chart or less. --______ UPDATE (Aug 31, 1:54 p.m.): Silver lurched on Friday to within inches of the 40.605 target flagged above. This Hidden Pivot resistance is all but certain to show stopping power, presumably tradable and possibly precise, but let's wait and see how buyers actually interact with it before we reassess the strength of the bull trend. ________ UPDATE (Sep 2, 1:42 p.m.): Sliding 'A' down to 32.100 (May 15) yields a new minimum objective at p2= 42.138, or D=44.090 if any higher.
Careful! GDXJ's behavior has been feral the whole way up, albeit with no big surprises. Now it is closing on a 78.28 target that has been three months in coming. That implies the target, a Hidden Pivot, should show tradable stopping power, even if the blunt obviousness of the pattern will likely work against a top occurring precisely where it ought to. If you've held onto a long position all the way up and want to keep it, or part of it, consider writing some near-the-money calls with an expiration date no more than 2-3 weeks out.
Bitcoin's violent price swings have grown tiresome, especially since they are failing to reach obvious Hidden Pivots in both directions. Friday's trampoline low was predictable within less than 0.1%, but I won't say any more than that, since I somehow managed to overlook a glow-in-the-dark feature of the chart that would have told me where to look for it. To get back on track, this week's chart features the simplest pattern that can instruct us gainfully. I've blocked out its origins for proprietary reasons, but the segment shown tells us that if buyers pop this gas-bag decisively past the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=117,605), it'll be bound for a minimum 120,582 (p2), or d=123,560 if any higher.
I've applied my very bullish interpretation of the S&P chart to Microsoft shares this week, producing an ambitious bull-market target at 593.79. This effectively shelves the question of whether the engineered, short-covering spike to 555.45 on July 31 marked a definitive top. It did not, as long as we give sufficient weight to the ease with which buyers surmounted the pattern's 469.26 midpoint Hidden Pivot in June. Looking ahead, if MSFT is going to sync up with the thousand-point rally I've forecast for the S&Ps, it would imply the current correction has significantly further to go, possibly to the 469.29 midpoint, or even to the green line (x=407.04). A 'mechanical' buy at either would be an opportunity we should not pass up, so be ready.
I wouldn't touch this little hoax until it comes down to the 113,924 Hidden Pivot target shown. Bitcoin would be a spec buy there, tightly stopped, although I've masked the predictive pattern's coordinates for reasons of confidentiality. Earlier, I'd expected a tantalizing low of 105,762 to materialize, but we've seen no such weakness. Does this portend an even higher top, as Bitcoin ascends to water-show heights for a 150-foot dive into a wet sponge? Perhaps. There is a good case for a bull-market high at 134,728, but you'd be foolish to hold out for more, no matter how strong the exhortations from pubescent experts who see the King of Cryptos rising into the zillions.
October Gold's latest relapse has brought it down to within easy distance of the 3317.70 Hidden Pivot support I'd said would provide a risk-averse buying opportunity. At the least, the target will have spared you the pain of trying to bottom-fish this brick as it began to fall from 150 points higher. The pattern I used to project a tradable low is sufficiently gnarly that a turn from very near the target is likely. Typically, I use 'reverse pattern' triggers to reduce entry risk to relative pocket change on trades that go against the trend. Since this tactic could require course corrections in real time, however, I can only suggest that you bottom-fish using your own risk-management methods. If the Hidden Pivot works, the futures should reverse from within no more than 4 to 5 points of 3317.70. If one assumes the turn will come from within a point or less of the target, it's possible to fashion a trigger on the one- or three-minute chart that limits entry risk to less than $100 per contract.
I've settled on the hourly chart, with an ambitious rally target at 78.31, as our lodestone. The gap through p=71.12 on first contact is not merely encouraging, it is highly favorable toward the continuation of the uptrend to at least 78.31. There is also reason for caution just above, at 74.72, a secondary Hidden Pivot that closely coincides with the 74.88 'D' target of an alternative pattern displayed here last week. An imminent stall seems likely, but if it is brief, you can take that as evidence D will be achieved.
