Silver will need more rest after topping pennies from an important Hidden Pivot target at 26.20 target that I'd drum-rolled for the May contract. The corrective target at 24.80 shown may prove to be optimistic, but there's no harm in using it analytically, since its ability to contain sellers can tell us how much power is behind the downtrend. It has worked already for initiating a 'mechanical' short at the green line, and it can also be used to bottom-fish. Caution is advised, however, since the 'B' low of the pattern 'sausaged out' when it narrowly failed to impulse beneath the April 6 low at 24.91. ______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 6:00 p.m.): The 24.80 target worked nicely, getting within 7 cents of the low of a so-far 61-cent bounce. It seems likely to continue because the bounce overshot the 'd' target of a minor reverse pattern.
GDXJ has corrected sharply after falling a substantial 1.68 shy of a 45.57 rally target that remains viable. In fact, a further fall to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at p=38.92, would trip a moderately appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 36.70. It would be less hazardous to wait for the correction to come down to x=35.59, but that would risk missing the next important upturn. In practice, we'll look to buy at the higher price, but with a 'camouflage' trigger that risks relative pocket change. Stay tuned if you care.
The S&PS have been in a constipated uptrend since around April 5, tacking on just 35 points, or around 0.7%, since regaining their footing after a steep rally begun in late March. The pattern shown projects a move to 4287.25, provided buyers can push this brick decisively above p=4191.88. They seemed content to beat each other's brains in all week, However, especially with Friday's excruciating chop. The week ended with a slight gain on a 'mechanical' buy triggered Thursday at the green line. We'll stick with the pattern shown for trading purposes since it's all we've got at the moment. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 5:43 p.m.): Because of today's hard selling, I've switched to a big, bearish reverse pattern with a 3980.00 target, or as low as 3818.00 if the higher number is breached decisively. The second target comes from fully extending the rABC pattern by using the marquee 'A'. If today's weakness is about to snowball, either pattern should work well for analysis or trading, including bottom-fishing at p=4058.50 of the larger pattern. Here's the chart.
Our #1 bellwether spent the week screwing the pooch. Accordingly, I've adjusted our focus downward somewhat from the 176.52 rally target given here earlier. That is the D target of a much larger pattern. The less ambitious price objective is 170.57, and you should be prepared for a possible swoon to x=162.48, since that would trigger an enticing 'mechanical' buy. In the meantime, if you bought puts at the recent top that I'd signaled, you should cash out 25%-50% of your position. Swinging for the fences with put options hasn't been a very good strategy in 2023. _______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 10:58 p.m.): The criminally engineered opening bar bottomed at 162.80, a hair above the 162.48 price I'd said would trigger a 'mechanical' buy. Anyone still holding puts? If so, please announce yourself in the chat room.
Bond bulls could have locked up the 115.32 rally target shown in the chart with a small upthrust a couple of weeks ago, but they chickened out. The opportunity to generate a powerful impulse leg with a small move exceeding three closely-spaced peaks will have to wait for another day. Even so, the chart still says 'bullish consolidation' clearly. It is mildly bullish that three feints lower have failed to gift us with a 'mechanical' buy at the green line. When it finally happens, be prepared for the low to occur beneath x=102.99. _______ UPDATE (May 1, 4:07 p.m. EDT): TLT's crash today looks like it still has a little ways to go. Bottom-fishing at D=101.90 with a very tight stop-loss looms as a decent bet. You can substitute call options if you prefer. _______ UPDATE (May 2, 10:45 p.m.): The low occurred below 102.99, all right-- 15 cents below it. That was just before TLT reversed and took off like the bat out of hell depicted in the eponymous Disney animation. Mention having caught the low in the chat room and your name will be entered in drawing for a coat made from genuine snow leopard pelts.
Bitcoin has been perfectly predictable for months, but I may remove it from the core list because my forecasts, which have been sensationally accurate, have attracted almost no discernible interest. I did get an email last week from a subscriber who said he has been enjoying Bertie touts, but apparently he's the only one. I've continued to tout Bertie anyway in hopes of attracting some Robin Hoodies and their ilk; on second thought, however, who needs the little twerps? If you want to keep this symbol on the front page, let me know in the chat room or via email. If I hear from 25 subscribers who support it, it can stay. A voodoo 'buy' is imminent if this big-time hoax can get a 336-point bounce from a voodoo number that's less than 400 points away. But so what, right? _______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 8:54 a.m.): Bertie is screaming this morning toward 30,277, using a reverse pattern on the daily chart where a= 27,732 on April 6. Alternative a/d= 27,243/30,766. The way the rally impaled p of either pattern implies there is nearly zero chance that both of these targets will NOT be achieved.
Buyers on a roll for the last month have 7'd out just above the 2050.60 target shown. An alternative target at 2079.40 still looks likely to be reached, but probably not straightaway. The lower target must have been widely anticipated, since the futures head-faked above it a week later just to jack shorts who would have been celebrating the refreshing but short-lived $54 drop a week earlier. We'll focus on short-term opportunities for the time being, with a mildly bearish bias. _______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 11:45 p.m.): My explicit guidance for getting long this morning produced a winner that could have been worth as much as $9,600 on four contracts. Traders would have experienced little stress on the ascent, since the trade proceeded straightforwardly from a voodoo number that caught the intraday low to the exact tick. Here's the chart. For further details, and to determine whether you could have followed my instruction, see related posts from 8:12 a.m. forward. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 10:52 p.m.): Navel-gazing has driven gold psychotic, even if its price action is as predictable as ever. The June contract is currently bound for the 2028.80 target shown in this chart -- and yes, it is shortable if you know how to manage the risk tightly. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 8:22 a.m.): The bearish, 1963.00 target in this chart goes against gold's daily drug habit of reversing overnight smashes as the regular session begins, but that's what will happen if sellers break p=1993.80 decisively. If you're planning on bottom-fishing, be alert to the possibility that using the slightly higher 'A' available in the chart could lower the bottom from which the futures are likely to bounce to 1961.60.
A chart stretching back to November provides no compelling technical basis for saying anything interesting, let alone bullish or bearish, about what might happen next. It's anyone's guess, although the June contract would have to eat through thick layers of supply to achieve new recovery highs above February's 4244 peak. Poor earnings would help, since the mere expectation of them is usually enough to get stocks sold out before the news hits. With or without grim tidings to drive the rally, we can be assured that intraday highs and lows will continue to be predictable enough to give us an edge. Friday's peak, for instance, missed a 'D' Hidden Pivot target that was as obvious as the punchline of a mile-long stretch of Burma Shave signs. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 11:12 p.m.): There are some days when we should just avert our eyes and this was one of them. A sinking VIX belies the nuttiness animating stocks these days. We should start loading up on puts today and Monday, because I strongly doubt that these histrionics are torquing the market for an ebullient move higher. That seems doubly true with The Wall Street Journal's bullish spin on...everything starting to sound increasingly desperate. DaBoyz are getting ready to pull the plug.
May Silver on Friday precisely fulfilled a Hidden Pivot target at 26.20 that was six months in coming. The actual high was 26.23, but don't expect much more than that for the time being, since buyers could use a rest. Two or three weeks could enable them to recover, but in the meantime we'll trade this contract with a bearish bias. We should also pay close attention to corrective ABC patterns, since an overshoot of their d targets would signal more downside while sharpening our assessment of trend strength.
GDXJ turned south well shy of the 45.57 rally target we've been using for the last few weeks. If Comex Gold and Silver futures had not made what appear to be intermediate-term tops at the same time, I'd be more confident about GDXJ fulfilling its price objective. Its rally has been even steeper than gold's, but perhaps that means it will lead the way higher once this correction in bullion has run its course. A drop to the red line would signal a 'mechanical' buying opportunity, but a death dive to x=35.39, however scary, would be even more enticing as a place to reload.
