A spirited push higher on Friday easily exceeded the 39.52 target we've been using, setting GDXJ up for a crucial test that would be strongly impulsive if it can get past the two peaks shown (inset) without pausing for breath. The higher of them lies at 42.19, and a two-day close above it would all but ensure further progress to at least p=49.02. Because gold is in a bull market, it is appropriate at this time to show what's possible over the long term -- in this case an ambitious target at 72.23 that has never been aired here before. For the time being, though, we'll use p=49.02 as a minimum upside projection, with an eye toward low-risk 'mechanical' entries to augment long positions on the way up. _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 9:56 p.m. EDT): Today's bull-trap thrust to 42.05 got within 0.3% of the target, so it should be considered fulfilled. If GDXJ surprises with a second-wind lunge above the high within the next 2-3 days, that would be quite bullish.
When a subscriber posted another guru's 6000 target for the S&Ps, my first thought was, oh great, how does an honest forecaster compete with a publicity seeker who billboards such an outrageously bullish target? But when I replicated the guy's chart pattern, I was forced to conclude that a moon shot to 6000 would not be so outrageous after all. A corresponding Hidden Pivot target lies at 6136, a less-than-exact number because I've used a composite chart to calculate it. A theoretical rally to 6136 has already been signaled by two feints above the green line since December. The line is about to be head-butted for a third time, and probably surpassed. If the June futures were to pop through it this time and then push above last August's peak at 4327 (which is likely if ESM23 closes for two weekly bars above X=4160), I'd infer that a test of p=4819 is no worse than an odds-on bet. That would be equal to the all-time high at 4800 recorded on January 4, 2022, and, probably, a launching pad for a blowoff to 6136. _____ UPDATE (Apr 4, 7:52 p.m. EDT): The futures came down hard after hitting the 4171.50 rally target of a textbook-obvious pattern that had been widely promoted in the trading world. Some saw it as the beginning of a landslide, and that would certainly be nice. But cooler heads will have an opportunity to prevail tomorrow, so permabears shouldn't get their hopes too high. _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 9:50 p.m.): Bears can count on a fall to at least D=4088.00, but if this Hidden Pivot support fails, expect more slippage to 4070 or lower. Here's the chart.
Bulls and bears both held their cards close to their chests last week. The latter cannot bluff effectively or for long, however, since bullion is in a bull market. However, the question on everyone's minds is whether gold is overdue for a punitive correction of the $350 run-up since November. Price action relative to the pennant formation shown in the chart (inset) should tell us soon whether a bearish outcome is likely, but there is nothing that I can discern in the chart that argues for betting the ranch on a particular scenario. For now, brace for savage, meaningless feints. most of them lower, since the quasi-criminals responsible for gold's gratuitous swoons have sufficient control over the futures to peg their price nearly anywhere over the short term. ______ UPDATE (Apr 3, 5:37 p.m. EDT): The ass-bandits took out the lower trendline on very light volume to begin the day, then bought aggressively to drive the futures nearly to the upper trendline by midday. I've altered the pennant somewhat to keep the futures within bounds, but don't expect the thieves to pull the same stunt if the break-out is to the upside, since they won't be able to trick buyers as easily as they suckered sellers. Here's the new chart. _______ UPDATE (Apr 4, 12:13 p.m.): Gold's impaling spike through p=2016 this morning implies more upside over the near term to at least 2079.40. Here's the chart -- and yes, the pattern should work well for 'mechanical' buying on swoons. _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 10:01 p.m.): The futures will be headed down to exactly 2018.00 straightaway if support at the 2029 midpoint Hidden Pivot fails. _______ UPDATE (Apr 6, 7:45 a.m.): Well, I guess we'll just have to see about that. June Gold cracked $2029 overnight, then reversed as it nearly always
After shaking off a gratuitous midweek smackdown, June Gold was bounding on Friday toward the Hidden Pivot rally target at 2052.00 shown in the thumbnail chart. Buyers looked sufficiently revved up to achieve this objective easily within the next couple of days. If they do, and especially if they close above it for two consecutive days, you can confidently infer the futures are on their way to at least 2154.50, the next Hidden Pivot resistance of importance. It is derived from the pattern on the daily chart starting with A=1830.20 on March 8, and B=2031.70 on March 20. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 7:56 p.m. EDT): Here's a more challenging view of gold -- a pennant formation that visually raises doubts about 2052.00 being a lock-up. If the June contract cracks the lower trendline, I'd brace for more disappointment.
We've been using a Hidden Pivot at 23.89 as a rally target, but buyers handled the 23.21 midpoint resistance of a larger pattern with such brio on Friday that I've switched to that pattern, with a 26.47 target that significantly raises the ceiling for the near-to-intermediate-term. Odds of a run-up to that number would shorten if the futures close above 23.34 for a second consecutive day. The pattern should work well for 'mechanical' buying on the way up if you want to augment a long position. However, because theoretical entry risk would be a little more than $8,000 per contract , the trade should not be attempted without a 'camouflage' trigger capable of reducing that by at least 90%.
The 39.52 rally target shown corresponds to my immediate, respective targets for June Gold and May Silver. That's good reason to be cautious if and when the target is reached. I expect a tradeable pullback in any case, but the most bullish scenario for bullion would be for buyers to forge past the 'hidden resistance' quickly and without much trouble. To play the countertrend, consider doing covered writes against long positions or even shorting GDXJ with put options if and when it gets within 0.20 or so of the target. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 8:08 p.m. EDT): Careful! Today's pop to 39.38 came close enough to the target for it to be considered fulfilled. No one mentioned it, so I won't be providing any follow-up till I refresh touts on Sunday. The 'buy' signal flashed on March 13, telegraphing a 17% move from 34.07.
Because it came precisely off a 64.25 Hidden Pivot target that was nearly nine months in coming, crude's so-far 10% rebound should continue to run for several weeks or longer. However, it would take a print topping the 81.07 'external' peak recorded on March 7 to generate an impulse leg capable of ending a bear market that saw crude's price fall by a third since apexed last August at 101.66. If the recent low were to be exceeded, the futures would likely be headed down to approximately 56, a target culled from a continuous-contract daily chart with ABC coordinates on the same dates as the one shown in the inset. _______ UPDATE (Apr 3, 1:59 p.m. EDT): Crude has taken a lunatic leap to just above 81.07 today on news that Saudi Arabia plans to cut output by 1.5 million barrels per day. Credit our President, whose brain unfortunately is not sufficiently rotted to prevent him from driving an erstwhile ally into the arms of China, Russia and Iran. Because I never trust big countertrend moves when they've been triggered by headline news, I will raise the bar to 83.05 to signal a possible end to the bear market begun from 101.66 last June. That's a penny above an important peak recorded on January 23. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 6:23 p.m.): The May contract poked its greasy little snout above my 83.05 benchmark and even managed to close above it. I'll reflexively raise the bar to 87.40 before I start trusting this heavily engineered rally. That's a tick above a daunting 'external' peak recorded on November 7. I've never regarded cartel cutbacks in production as remotely sufficient to offset falling demand caused by global recession. The world desperately needs higher energy prices to support vast borrowings hocked against energy resources, and
Both the uptrend and a smaller downtrend are shown in the chart, but with a bullish bias favoring an upthrust to D=4147.50 over the near term. This is justified by an impulsive spike midweek to 4073.75 that slightly exceeded a small 'external' peak recorded on March 9. The smaller abc downtrend could conceivably reach D=3793.50, but I doubt this will occur in the days ahead for the reason stated above, but also because the futures reversed almost precisely from the Hidden Pivot midpoint (p) at 3933.63. That is usually a sign that the dominant trend (i.e., up) is still controlling price action. If you trade this vehicle, your bias should be bullish for now, with a focus on 'camo' set-ups on the intraday charts that use price bars going back to around March 1. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 8:20 p.m. EDT): Buyers made solid headway toward the 4113.50 target that I posted in the chat room on Tuesday, but it's not a done deal until the futures blow past p2=4069.38. Notice that the rally began at the green line with a perfect 'mechanical' buy signal.
Bellwether AAPL, as well as the broad averages, are likely headed significantly higher as the bear market rally begun in October continues to challenge the endurance of pessimists. Accordingly, to project a new target at 176.52, I've relocated the point 'A' low of the pattern we've been using at a one-off low recorded in January. The stock will need to punch through p=160.21 more persuasively before we raise the likelihood of D's attainment to near-certitude, but for now you can use a swoon to x=152.08, however unlikely, as a juicy opportunity to get long 'mechanically'.
The impulsive phase of Bertie's rally is quite steep, and I therefore doubt that C-D can replicate it. D=30,873 looks quite achievable nonetheless, and so you can use the pattern shown to get long 'mechanically' with a bid at x-25,676, stop 23,942. We don't typically risk that much initiating trades, so I am suggesting this one only to traders who know how to cut the entry risk by 90% of more with a 'camouflage' trigger. Please note that BRTI is not a tradeable symbol, but rather a real-time reckoning of best bids and offers across a wide variety of cryptos. ______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 9:10 a.m.): Bertie took a gratuitous poke at p2=29,141 that did not alter the odds of a finishing stroke to D=30,873. Here's the new chart.
