Current Touts

Because it came precisely off a 64.25 Hidden Pivot target that was nearly nine months in coming, crude's so-far 10% rebound should continue to run for several weeks or longer. However, it would take a print topping the 81.07 'external' peak recorded on March 7 to generate an impulse leg capable of ending a bear market that saw crude's price fall by a third since apexed last August at 101.66. If the recent low were to be exceeded, the futures would likely be headed down to approximately 56, a target culled from a continuous-contract daily chart with ABC coordinates on the same dates as the one shown in the inset. _______ UPDATE (Apr 3, 1:59 p.m. EDT): Crude has taken a lunatic leap to just above 81.07 today on news that Saudi Arabia plans to cut output by 1.5 million barrels per day. Credit our President, whose brain unfortunately is not sufficiently rotted to prevent him from driving an erstwhile ally into the arms of China, Russia and Iran. Because I never trust big countertrend moves when they've been triggered by headline news, I will raise the bar to 83.05 to signal a possible end to the bear market begun from 101.66 last June.  That's a penny above an important peak recorded on January 23. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 6:23 p.m.): The May contract poked its greasy little snout above my 83.05 benchmark and even managed to close above it. I'll reflexively raise the bar to 87.40 before I start trusting this heavily engineered rally. That's a tick above a daunting 'external' peak recorded on November 7. I've never regarded cartel cutbacks in production as remotely sufficient to offset falling demand caused by global recession. The world desperately needs higher energy prices to support vast borrowings hocked against energy resources, and

Both the uptrend and a smaller downtrend are shown in the chart, but with a bullish bias favoring an upthrust to D=4147.50 over the near term.  This is justified by an impulsive spike midweek to 4073.75 that slightly exceeded a small 'external' peak recorded on March 9.  The smaller abc downtrend could conceivably reach D=3793.50, but I doubt this will occur in the days ahead for the reason stated above, but also because the futures reversed almost precisely from the Hidden Pivot midpoint (p) at 3933.63.  That is usually a sign that the dominant trend (i.e., up) is still controlling price action. If you trade this vehicle, your bias should be bullish for now, with a focus on 'camo' set-ups on the intraday charts that use price bars going back to around March 1. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 8:20 p.m. EDT):  Buyers made solid headway toward the 4113.50 target that I posted in the chat room on Tuesday, but it's not a done deal until the futures blow past p2=4069.38. Notice that the rally began at the green line with a perfect 'mechanical' buy signal.

Bellwether AAPL, as well as the broad averages, are likely headed significantly higher as the bear market rally begun in October continues to challenge the endurance of pessimists. Accordingly, to project a new target at 176.52, I've relocated the point 'A' low of the pattern we've been using at a one-off low recorded in January. The stock will need to punch through p=160.21 more persuasively before we raise the likelihood of D's attainment to near-certitude, but for now you can use a swoon to x=152.08, however unlikely, as a juicy opportunity to get long 'mechanically'.

The impulsive phase of Bertie's rally is quite steep, and I therefore doubt that C-D can replicate it. D=30,873 looks quite achievable nonetheless, and so you can use the pattern shown to get long 'mechanically' with a bid at x-25,676, stop 23,942.  We don't typically risk that much initiating trades, so I am suggesting this one only to traders who know how to cut the entry risk by 90% of more with a 'camouflage' trigger. Please note that BRTI is not a tradeable symbol, but rather a real-time reckoning of best bids and offers across a wide variety of cryptos. ______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 9:10 a.m.): Bertie took a gratuitous poke at p2=29,141 that did not alter the odds of a finishing stroke to D=30,873. Here's the new chart.

The dollar has looked like hell for the last three weeks, but I've given it the bullish benefit of the doubt nonetheless because DXY signaled an appealing 'mechanical' buy with last Wednesday's fall to the green line (x=102.60). The implied rally target of the modest rABC pattern shown is 107.92, but that Hidden Pivot resistance would need to be slightly exceeded in order to take out a crucial external peak at 107.99 recorded last November. That would signal the likely return of the long-term bull market begun at the start of 2021 from 80.21. Alternatively, if the dollar continues to fall, it should be presumed bound for the 98.71 target shown here. This pattern also strongly implies that DXY should be 'mechanically' shorted at the green line (x=104.09). The bullish target at 107.92 would still be viable unless 100.82 were exceeded to the downside. (That's the 'c' low of the pattern shown in the inset.)

Friday's explosive rally ended GDXJ's doldrums decisively, all but guaranteeing more upside in the days ahead to the 39.52 Hidden Pivot target shown. It followed an opportune dip to the green line that supported a 'mechanical' buy if you were nimble enough to catch the low, which exceeded x by a microscopic three cents. Any additional one-level swoons, however unlikely, can be used to bottom-fish with a tight stop-loss appropriate to your entry method. As always, a decisive push past a 'D' resistance would be telegraphing the continuation of the uptrend. _______ UPDATE (Mar 20, 8:23 p.m. EDT): This pattern tripped a profitable 'mechanical' buy today on the pullback to the green line. It projects to 38.04, a possible resting spot enroute to 39.52. _______ UPDATE (Mar 21, 5:12 p.m.): A wrenching fall from p2 may have made the day unpleasant, but seen in the perspective of this hourly chart, the damage was not too bad.  If the swoon continues to x=34.07, it would trigger an opportune 'mechanical' buy. A red-line buy at 35.89, stop 34.68, is also possible, but I am not recommending it explicitly.

Buyers blew past the 1964.50 D target of a minor pattern with such ease on Friday that they all but clinched a further run-up to the 2036.40 target of the larger pattern shown (see inset). The psychologically important $2000 barrier is unlikely to provide much resistance as the new week begins, although it could act as support on a pullback. The move has been so steep that it has offered few opportunities to get aboard 'mechanically, even on the lesser charts. Gold should start turning up in the headlines once it is trading comfortably above 2000, and that could be a problem for spinmeisters who would deign to suggest that all is right with the world. _______ UPDATE (Mar 20, 8:45 p.m.): Apparent distribution over the last two days has created a minor but potentially controlling head-and-shoulders pattern with the potential to send the futures down to 1930 or so in search of traction. _______ UPDATE (Mar 22, 9:11 p.m.): Today's nutty, Fed-induced rally spilled into gold, driving the April contract into a parabola that negated the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned above. The new pattern project to 2034.20, with midpoint resistances, still untested. at 1985.40. Here's the chart.

I've brought point 'A' down to a 'marquee' low in order to give the rally a little more room. Silver's week-long hesitation to push past p=21.92 made it less than a lock-up to reach D=23.89, but Friday's blast free of gravity was sufficiently compelling to imply the target will be reached. As always, an overshoot of so clear a Hidden Pivot would imply more uptrend. Next would come a test of massive supply in the 23.50-25.00 range deposited back in December/January. _______ UPDATE (Mar 24, 8:55 a.m.): With a so-far high today of 23.71, the futures are closing on the 23.89 target that would max out the bullish reverse pattern shown in the thumbnail chart. They were short-able this morning as scalp at 23.69, however -- the 'D' target associated with the one-off low at 21.19 on 11/8. IF SI closes above the higher target, it would activate D=26.48, associated with A=18.40 on 10/14.

TLT had a busy week clearing the way for a strong push to D=115.32. It started with a fist-pump past the midpoint 'hidden' resistance at 107.10. The breach was sufficient to suggest the target is about 75% likely to be achieved. The picture of strength brightened still more when the pullback from Monday's upthrust failed to set up a 'mechanical' buy at the green line. Having fewer bulls aboard, and therefore less profit-taking, will always steepen the trajectory of a rally. For now, use p2=111.21 as a minimum upside projection for the near term. _______ UPDATE (Mar 25): No change. _______ UPDATE (Mar 31): Still no change, although TLT would trip a 'mechanical' buy if it were to feint down to x=102.99.