The big, lovely pattern shown (see inset) should serve our purposes for trading and analysis as the new week begins. That means we could have bought p=3847.13 on Friday and made a few bucks. As a practical matter, however, I rarely advise initiating a position at the closing bell. We have no way of knowing with confidence whether the midpoint support will be breached. Indeed, for all we can tell, the so-far modest rally from this Hidden Pivot could mark an important low for this correction of the bear market rally begun in October. However, we do know that if the futures relapse and smash p=3847, that would set them on a path down to at least p2=3667.19, or perhaps even to D=3487.25. Both can be bottom-fished, but the larger opportunity would lie in getting short on the way down. Pivoteers will notice that I've used the middle peak of three to fix a point 'A' high. I refer to such middle-of-the-road coordinates as Pontiac/Oldsmobile peaks to drive home the point that they don't usually work. In this case, though, my choice is justified by the bounce precisely from p, which tends to corroborate the pattern itself. It will be trustworthy in any case (i.e., good enough for government work) with regard to the 'read' a decisive breach of p would give us on trend strength. Here's a smaller chart of a pattern that I posted Friday afternoon. I said it would control DaBoyz' manipulations, as it indeed did. Notice that it signaled two profitable 'mechanical' buys during the afternoon. The 3893.50 'D' rally target is still viable, pending whatever stupid tricks the Sunday night sleazeballs can gin up. ______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 6:12 p.m.): DaBoyz don't know they are being ruled by this pattern in the June contract right
I could just as easily have supplied a big, bearish pattern peak to begin the week, but I settled on a more modest discouragement, since AAPL seems reluctant to fall apart. Still, rallies have been routinely failing to exceed prior peaks, and that's reason enough to favor the bearish (i.e., corrective) case for now. The graph shows the stock to have triggered a 'mechanical' short last Monday with a heavily engineered lunatic leap that would have added nearly $100 billion to the U.S. economy in mere minutes. The subsequent relapse 'should' be able to hit p=146.23, but it's not predictable at the moment whether further weakness will be sufficient to crush it. If AAPL's canny sponsors seize the upper hand and run the stock up the old wazoo, look for yet another fraudulent but potent rally to 159.96 (180-min, A=.141.32 on 2/1). Otherwise, the 135.07 target shown will remain viable as a downside objective. _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 9:03 a.m.): The smash low of AAPL's $4.70 reversal from an overnight peak has bounced from within a nickel of the 146.23 Hidden Pivot noted above. [This occurred an hour before the regular session opened.] The stock has been there before, setting up a 'mechanical' short at the green line that would have required taking a partial profit (at p) this morning. Let's see if the low holds. If not, p2=140.65 would be in play as a minimum downside objective. ______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 11:23 p.m.): The stock appear bound for 160.09, the Hidden Pivot 'D' target shown in this chart.
Friday's rally caught me by surprise. It had such power that I'm tempted to trust my lying eyes instead of questioning how Treasurys could rally so sharply with the Fed working hard to turn them into garbage. Be that as it may, the upthrust seems likely to reach the 107.10 midpoint pivot shown (see inset). That number is tied to a Hidden Pivot 'D' target at 115.32 that would represent a 25% rally from October's 91.85 low. The midpoint pivot will offer the most challenging test bulls have faced since their failure to surpass the December high at 109.68 in February. _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 10:`9 p.m.): Today's seemingly ferocious rally turned gutless just shy of the daunting peak at 109.35 recorded on February 2. The subsequent relapse was sharp, presumably trapping many bulls badly. Let's see how long it takes them to muster another charge. A pullback to x=102.99 would trigger an appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 98.87. ______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 6:26 p.m.): A further decline touching x=102.99 would trigger a juicy bottom-fishing opportunity via a 'mechanical' bid. Let's try it with options, bidding 0.28-0.31 for ten 14 April 114 calls, day order. If we buy 'em we'll seek to spread them off on a rally to zero out risk. ______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 9:33 a.m.): TLT surged higher overnight, stranding our stingy bid. The trade recommendation can stand for today, but it is unlikely to fill.
Gold's gratuitous feints in both directions have become tiresome, and so I'm not going to get too heavily invested in the opportunistic leap it took Friday on dollar weakness. The pattern shown says a 'mechanical' short would trigger at x=1925.00, but I would not be especially enthused about laying out a few contracts there, since the bearish energy of the A-B leg has had a lot of time to diffuse. The short can be attempted nonetheless, provided we use a 'camouflage' trigger to initiate the trade. In any event, the 1774.50 downside target that was first signaled on February 2 remains theoretically viable, if no longer compelling. _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 10:27 p.m.): This should be interesting now that the flight to safety that has followed SVB's collapse is looking more like a buying panic. The 'mechanical' short at 1925 still looks enticing, but I'll suggest paper trading it unless you know how to set up a 'camouflage' trigger near the green line. This implies doing the trade on the five-minute chart (or less) when x is hit. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 9:44 a.m.): Buyers impaled x=1925 without triggering any shorts (other than a 'conventional'-type entry at x that we never use). Price action within the pattern is still interesting for what it seems to predict -- i.e., that a one-level relapse to p=1874.90 that would make the short profitable is still more likely than a rally exceeding C=1975.20. _______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 11:31 p.m.): When April Gold punches through the midpoint resistance at 1938.00, it'll be bound (exactly) for D=1964.50 of this pattern.
It may be premature to switch to a bullish chart in Silver, especially considering that price action n gold has been so wishy-washy. However, the May contract triggered a theoretical 'buy' signal on Friday when it vaulted to the green line (see inset) and then exceeded it by 1.5 cents. We can therefore project more upside to p=21.79, but we should be prepared nonetheless for a relapse below 'C' that would negate the bullish target. If the futures achieve p=21.79, straightaway, a relapse to x=20.86 would set up a very enticing 'mechanical' buy that we could initiate using a 'camouflage' trigger. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care. ______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 10:35 p.m. EDT): The slight overshoot of p (adjusted to 21.82) is bullish and shortens the odds of a continuation to D=23.69 (also adjusted). A swoon to x=20.88 would trip an appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 19.94.
Last week's sturm und drang just above a 31.70 correction target that has been too long in coming was a challenge to watch. The target remains valid in theory and can be bottom-fished with confidence, but we may not be gifted with such a last-gasp move lower to clear the air. In fact, Friday's gap-up rally created a promising impulse leg on the lesser charts, and so we should be prepared to begin the week with a bullish bias. Here's the chart. Notice the look-to-the-left peak that qualifies the upthrust as even stronger than it appeared.
Friday's robust upturn came from within 156 points, or less than 1%, of the 19425 correction target shown (see inset). That put it slightly out of range for bottom-fishing, at least via our usual methods, but the 700-point rebound that ensued suggests the uptrend has the potential to get legs. The smart money trapped in bitcoin at much higher prices will not be able to push the recovery too aggressively, however, since it is not short covering that drives rallies in bitcoin these days, but rather the absence of selling pressure, particularly when the stock market is on a bullish tear. I won't update this tout unless something significant happens, but I will respond diligently to any queries in the chat room.
The dollar fell hard on Friday, wiping out gains achieved earlier in the week, but not before thrusting above two 'external' peaks recorded in, respectively, early December and early January. The impulse leg had sufficient power that even a relapse that takes out Friday's low should still be viewed as corrective. The next big rally target would be into the 106-107 range or even higher, but first buyers would have to get past a 'voodoo number' at 106,42 mentioned here earlier. If this scenario plays out, then gold, which rebounded sharply as last week ended, would once again come under pressure. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 11:35 p.m.): It's fascinating to see the dollar trading like a penny stock, leaping this morning from a low that lay just four pennies beneath a stop-out low from two days earlier. DXY appears headed for exactly 106.73, assuming it can overcome the very precise stall at p=105.09 of the pattern shown here. _______ UPDATE (Mar 20, 9:25 p.m.): The midpoint Hidden Pivot (p) at 105.09 stopped the rally dead in its tracks, sending DXY plummeting. Now, if p2=103.27 fails as support, expect the next leg down to hit 102.66 exactly, followed by a tradeable bounce. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 22, 9:30 p.m.): The Dollar Index liquefied the clear and compelling Hidden Pivot support at 102.66 noted above, testifying to the urgency of the Fed's campaign to destroy the dollar. Recent price action implies DXY will take out the spike low at 100.82 recorded on Feb 2. Here's the chart.
When stocks are nitwitting their way blithely higher as they did on Friday, we tend to lose perspective. Check out the weekly chart (inset), however, before you get carried away by last week's presumably pointless excitement. That said, because the rally hit the green line of a legitimate bullish ABCD, we need to pay heed. That means that p=4135.00 should be used as a minimum upside target for the near term, with D=4345.00 held in mind as a worst case (for bears, that is). Price action at the lower number will be crucial to determining how much gumption bulls have left. Those of you who live to get short after missing out on 100-point rallies can certainly attempt it at p, but keep in mind that you'll have a profit to cushion your stop if you make a few bucks on the way up. As always, if you are inclined to bet against the trend, I recommend using a risk-averse trigger such as is possible with rABC set-ups. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 4:55 p.m,.): Powell's hawkish words weighed heavily on stocks the whole day. This is despite the fact that every trader and pundit on Earth knew what he'd say. That's one reason that I think the steep selloff will end at somewhat lower levels on Wednesday. An important low sits at 3925.00 that will hold, implying that the theoretical buy that triggered today will make money. The 4135.00 target given above will remain theoretically viable as long as 3925.00 holds. For explicit and potentially tradeable details, check out the recording of today's impromptu session. The link will be out shortly, emailed to everyone. _____ UPDATE (Mar 9, 5:10 p.m.) Check out the discussion in the chat room for a detailed , time-stamped discussion of the dead-center, 3909.50 bullseye in today's
Last week's five-day stall just shy of a crucial 'external' peak at 105.63 recorded on January 6 is not a healthy sign. I've labeled it 'ominous' in the chart, although we should probably give bulls the benefit of the doubt for at least another week while they regroup. Perhaps it will take a pullback and a running start to clear the structural hurdle? If so, the retracement had better not exceed the 102.59 low recorded on February 14, since that would turn the daily chart decisively bearish and shorten the odds of a fall to 100.55, a Hidden Pivot target that is already theoretically in play. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 5:08 p.m.): Har-har. Markets act so predictably like fun-house mirrors that we shouldn't be even slightly surprised that today's psychotic leap from lugubriousness exceeded my 105.63 benchmark by a whopping two cents. Tuppence is plenty enough for us to focus once again on the bullish case, since the rally created an undeniable, unmistakable impulse leg on the daily chart. Let's see DXY can get past the next impediment, a voodoo number at 106.42.
