Rick’s Picks

You can use the chart to judge for yourself the strength of gold’s uptrend as it progresses. The move is extraordinarily powerful, to be sure, but that doesn’t mean the rally couldn’t reverse sharply at any time with no warning. We’ve been using a 3533.90 target for the last 600 or so points, but are the odds still compelling that gold will get there? Here’s how to read the chart so that you can determine this for yourself. It shows four possible scenarios, ranked from strongest to weakest. All began with Friday’s 57.80-point reversal off a record 3371.90. That triggered a theoretical sell signal at the green line (3314.10), the first such signal in two months. The implication is that the futures will now fall to at least 3256.30, the ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot (p), enabling at least a partial profit. However, if the June contract doesn’t quite get there, and instead blasts off for new record highs, that would strongly imply 3533 will be reached, and quickly. A somewhat less bullish outcome (2) would be a strong bounce to new highs from the red line (p). That would follow the rule that powerful trends produce corrective ABCDs that do not reach their ‘D’ targets, but instead reverse from the midpoint pivot. Alternatively, if gold penetrates p the first time sellers make contact with it, that would increase the odds that D=3140.70 will be reached. And finally, if the downtrend were to crash ‘d’, that would raise the possibility that gold has made an important high at 3371.90 and is unlikely to reach 3533. I am enthusiastically recommending this do-it-yourself exercise to anyone who is interested in learning how the Hidden Pivot Method works and applying it to your own analysis. _______ UPDATE: (Apr 21, 9:21 a.m.): The blast-off scenario detailed

The reverse pattern shown, with a 35.425 rally target, is as gnarly as they come, but May Silver's forceful move through p=31.485 justified stretching for the highest target possible.  Recall that in even in lousy patterns, price action at p is still usually a reliable indicator of trend strength. Please note that using the more obvious 'a' low at 29.405 yields a 'd' target at 33.635, so be alert to a possible stall or even a shortt-term top there.

Friday's swoon tripped a theoretical sell signal at 63.68 that implies GDXJ will fall to at least p=61.55 in search of traction. Thereupon, and as always, a decisive breach of the midpoint support on first contact would imply more slippage is likely -- in this case to p2 (59.23) or even d (56.91). As the current gold tout implies, however, numerous other outcomes are possible, the most bearish of which would be a decisive penetration of p on first contact. Regardless, this Hidden Pivot can be bottom-fished by scalperss with a tightly constructed 'camo' trigger. _______ UPDATE Apr 21, 11:12 a.m. EDT):  So obsessively attentive was I to a recent, hair-trigger sell signal in Comex Gold and this vehicle that I didn't think to mention the 72.23 rally target advertised here in the previous tout. It should underlie any forecasts, bullish or bearish, and must always be considered regardless of contrary warning signs.

The Dollar Index has broken down with last week's penetration of a key low at 99.58 that was recorded in July 2023. Expect more weakness down to the green line (x=96.03), at least, before the greenback can turn around. A dip to the line would trigger a 'mechanical' buy predicated on a climactic run-up to the 119.37 target.  That seems farfetched at the moment, but there is nothing in the chart to suggest the long-term uptrend is over. At the green line, the correction will amount to about 16% from the September 2022 high at 114.78. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 4:15 p.m. EDT): Today's penetration of a 98.04 midpoint Hidden Pivot support was not decisive, but any more weakness will clear a path down to D=95.79 of this pattern.  As things stand, a rally to the green line (x=99.16) already would trigger an enticing 'mechanical' short that would take a stop-loss at 100.29.

Despite the hellacious dive over the last ten days, TLT is on a double buy signal. The more important of the two is shown in the weekly chart (inset). An 88.47 bid would require a stop-loss at 84.88, just beneath the pattern's point 'c' low. You can see how close the low came to stopping out the position, but it held nonetheless -- by 12 cents. T-Bonds were bound to turn around sooner or later, and the chart says this would be a logical place for it to happen.  Odds that a major low is in place would shorten if this so-far modest bounce can push past D=88.39 of this minor pattern. _______ UPDATE (Apr 17): The tout above sniffed out a strong bounce, but not quite strong enough to lift TLT from the danger zone. That would require a thrust exceeding the 88.91 'external' peak shown in this chart. My hunch is that bulls lack the gusto for this task, but we'll give them the benefit of the doubt when trading gets under way after a long Easter holiday weekend. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 4:25 p.m.): Today's carnage clarified a picture that shows an easy path down to 74.38. If this comes to pass, T-Bond futures could fall to as low as 100^12 by mid-summer.

Although the futures have rallied nearly 700 points from last Monday's Hidden Pivot low, their failure to surpass the small external peak shown in the inset was timid behavior. It also set up a theoretical 'mechanical' short at 5406.25 (stop 5529.00) that we'll ignore. Instead, let's give bulls the benefit of the doubt for now, meaning we should expect a thrust above the 5528.75 recovery high shortly.  Alternatively, a relapse could send the futures down to as low as d=5038.75 in search of traction (60m, a=5322.00 on 4/4). You could bottom-fish there aggressively with a stop-loss as tight as 2-3 points.

Last week's violent swings paused at the 389.29 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the inset.  The shallow pullback from this resistance implies bulls had plenty of energy for a follow-through to the pattern's 'D' target at 410.78.  If the stock pulls back to the green line from near the 395 'sweet spot', that would generate an appealing 'mechanical' buy signal.  So would a pullback to the red line (p=389.29) once p2=400.04 has been touched.  Your bid should be tied to a 382.12 stop-loss, but you could substitute naked-short puts for shares..

Ten-Year rates have taken a Whoopee Cushion bounce en route to a presumptive bottom at 3.67%. It reportedly was caused by the wholesale dumping of T-Bonds by European banksters intent on disrupting U.S. financial markets. Powell's tightening regimen is making it difficult for them to open up the credit spigot, and so they have desperately tried to force his hand. The survival of some large American hedge funds could be at stake, since they were leveraged up to the eyeballs with a spread that required a bullish position in bonds.  With Powell standing his ground, my gut feeling is that the panic will subside shortly and that rates will not break out above January's 4.81% high. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 6:51 p.m. EDT): Rates on the Ten-Year Note look primed to burst through the 4.42% midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance shown in this chart. If they do, they should be presumed bound for at least 4.58% or even higher, to levels that could knock the U.S. economy and stock market for a loop.  

I've drawn a cautionary pattern because gold is long overdue for a full abcd correction, and because Friday's high occurred almost precisely at a 3261.40 target I'd posted in the chat room around 10:00 a.m.  Assuming the high endures, the rABC pattern implies a pullback to the 2868.60 'd' target is likely. (Note: You'll need to shift 'c' upward if gold continues to rise.) The years-old 'a-b' segment remains viable because no pullback since this leg was completed in 2021 has reached 'd'.  If it does now, that would amount to a 12% correction. You can bottom-fish with a tight stop at p, but be aware that its decisive breach, wherever it occurs, would warn of more slippage to 'd' or lower. _______ UPDATE (Apr 14, 1:25 p.m.): The correction predicted for gold using the weekly chart (see ‘above) would be quite painful, but there is a milder scenario suggested by the hourly chart reproduced here. June Gold, playing coy, has not yet tripped a theoretical sell signal by touching the green line (x=3205.20), but if and when it does, it should be presumed bound for the midpoint Hidden Pivot support (p) at 3147.40. We’ll be better able to judge the strength of the downtrend after we’ve seen sellers interact with p. A decisive penetration on first contact would imply more weakness, as would a subsequent overshoot of d=3031.80. Both levels can be bottom-fished with a tight stop-loss. (Note: So much for weakness!  The futures still haven't tripped a sell signal, never mind sold off. The chart has been updated and slightly revised, since the original ‘c’ coordinate was slightly off.)