Sellers savaged the 3313.20 midpoint support with such ease last week that the futures are likely to continue down to at least p2=3231.60. And if they fail to get a strong bounce from that Hidden Pivot, expect the correction to hit D=3150.00. An additional possibility is that the turn will come from near the middle of the gap between p and p2, or between p2 and D. Unfortunately, the only way one can trade that scenario with risk tightly controlled is to watch for the turn on a chart of every small (i.e., one- or two-minute) bar chart. And here's one more possible bottom-fishing opportunity for Pivoteers who know how to craft a low-risk trigger: 3253.30, a voodoo number. ________ UPDATE (Jul 2, 1:19 a.m.) The futures opened on a gap down to 3250.50 on Sunday afternoon, triggering a long entry at 3257.60. (The 'reverse' used to fashion the trigger can be found on the 30-min chart, where a=3266.50 on 6/27 at 9:00 a.m.) The pattern, the only one available, could not have produced a losing trade, but it triggered at a time of day when relatively few would have been watching. I have not established a tracking position because no one reported getting long.
The pattern shown is gnarly enough to give us high-confidence trades every step of the way. It has yielded two profitable trades so far: a conventional short from x=36.233, and a so-far moderately profitable long from p=35.695. If sellers smash through p, you can use a reverse-pattern trigger to play a likely continuation down to at least p2=35.158. You can bottom-fish there if reversing a profitable short position; then place a tightly stopped bid down at D=36.620 for an eventual relapse. That would be the most appealing trade of the three proffered herein.
Is this rally for real? We'll probably have our answer this week, since this vehicle will either vault above the 'external' peak at 88.21 (see inset), or it will chicken out and pull back to form a distinctive low before taking a running start. The first scenario would be more bullish, but the second would be no disqualifier. In either case, we'll monitor minor ABCD retracements, since they should not reach 'D' if the rally is going to continue. Correspondingly, ABCD rallies of minor degree should easily surpass p midpoints, and even D targets, for the bull to remain healthy. These rules should hold true even for patterns that play out in an hour or less on the one-minute chart. FYI, the most immediate target for a tradable pullback low is 86.42 (assuming 88.16 is not exceeded first; that would shift the target higher). _______ UPDATE (Jul 2, 1:38 a.m. EDT): Buyers easily surpassed the external peak at 88.21, creating a fresh impulse leg and clearing the way for a new leg up to 88.86. This ETF proxy for long-term Treasurys is rising because foreign money has been flowing copiously into the U.S. Trump has put America into ascendance, and the trend is just getting rolling. It helps that Europe is a basket case.
I've raised the target slightly, to 109,344 to correct a small error in one of my coordinates. If you trade Bitcoin, please know that I am still quite confident the target will be achieved. It also promises to deliver a high-odds short, a trade I am recommending especially to those of you who have made money with my target on the way up. If you do the trade and BTC reverses from our number, be sure to nail down a partial profit on a relatively small move. The remainder of your position can be held for more slippage to 104,191 or even lower. An additional trade possibility using this pattern would be to get long 'mechanically' on a pullback to p=104,191, stop 102,474. _______ UPDATE (Jun 29, 8:57): This is a bloody damned nightmare! Tradestation keeps fiendishly shifting my coordinates, changing not only the targets and Hidden Pivot levels, but also the recommended trades. Each time, I've had to revise not only the text, targets and instructions, but the chart as well. To make matters worse, my laptop has an electrical grounding problem that just erased the most recent revision/update of this tout. I have corrected everything above, including the chart, for the fourth time, so please take note of this. _______ UPDATE (Jun 30, 9:58 a.m. EDT): With a certified IQ of 68, Bitcoin is playing hard to get. You'll have noticed already that this morning's top missed my 109,344 target by a whopping 0.4%. The shortfall denied us an excellent opportunity to get short, but new possibilities are a dime a dozen in this vehicle. The next lies at 106,291, where you can place a 'mechanical' bid, stop 104,680. The midpoint Hidden Pivot, p=107,900, would be a good spot to take a partial profit, but the trade is based
Right on cue, Bloomberg.com splashed an article on its front page over the weekend explaining why the price of crude has been so subdued in the face of potentially severe supply disruptions in the Middle East. Turns out the world is awash in oil, the article explained — not just because of the success of U.S. fracking, but also because the Saudis have been pumping oil like crazy to stabilize their market share. The article was almost surely planted by Bloomberg’s masters in Washington to calm the herd. Energy markets are very heavily manipulated, and PR is frequently used to nudge quotes one way or the other, ostensibly “in the national interest.” Capping prices would appear to be a high priority at the moment, superseding the $100-a-barrel needs of traders and speculators who thrive on volatility. But who is kidding whom? Just beneath the veneer of eerie, artificial calm lurks enough pent-up panic to push quotes from a current $72 to $100 literally overnight. That’s why I’m sticking with a forecast from a week ago that August Crude will hit a minimum $86. In the meantime, don’t be lulled by the way bulls were rebuked this morning with a so-far $8 reversal from 78. Too many things could go wrong for oil prices to be this docile, and for stocks to be hovering so close to record highs. Only fools are buyers of shares at these levels. _______ ADDENDUM (1:25 p.m. EDT): Sunday evening's fleeting spike, noted above, came within three cents (0.03) of the 78.37 rally target I had flagged in the earlier tout as a good bet. If you took that bet and then got short at the target with a stop-loss as tight as a nickel, you could have caught an up-and-down ride worth as much as
A subscriber posted the bullish pattern shown (see inset) in the chat room on Friday, and although I wasn't enthused about it at the time, I now like it more than the alternative I went on to suggest. It shows two possibilities of a bear market developing without a new record high in the S&Ps. The first implies the futures will fall from current levels, even though they've triggered a theoretical buy signal at the green line (x=6030.94). The second allows for a rally to the 6250.38 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, just shy of last winter's multiple peaks near 6280. I've been operating under the assumption that the huge move off April's low was a bear rally, a sucker's bet destined to sputter out beneath the old high. I still consider this likely, although less so if the September contract should achieve p=6250.38. It won't make much difference in the way we trade this vehicle, and a tightly stopped short at p will be warranted in any event. A third possibility -- a move to new record highs -- would only increase my skepticism and make me more bearish.
I've been quietly promoting a 486.17 target as a place to get short, and although I am still recommending that you attempt it with a very tight stop-loss, I am no longer as enthused. It was based on a variant of my favorite pattern, a 'quickie' ABC followed by a long, dragged-out C-D leg. In this case, I ignored a visually compelling ABC whose 477 target had already been exceeded to favor a bastardized pattern with a still unfulfilled target. The change has forced me to the big, bullish pattern shown, with a target at 503.69. The pattern looks much too obvious to work precisely, but the gap through p=424.24 still all but guarantees that D will be reached, at least. If it doesn't stop the rally precisely, it will surely impose a formidable obstacle, and possibly a fatal one. This is important to consider, since a major top in MSFT would mark the start of a bear market for stocks in general. _______ UPDATE (Jun 23, 3:14 p.m. EDT): The stock has made a so-far high today at 487.75, somewhat above my target. See the chat room discussion for explicit instruction on getting short. ______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 9:40 a.m. EDT): The short triggered around 7:10 a.m. this morning when the stock dropped from an off-hours high at 492.00 to 489.26. A drop of an additional 2.74 (equal to the suggested trigger interval) dictated profit-tsking at 486.53. The trade is still 'live', with a break-even-or-better stop-loss on the remaining 50% of the position. The downside target is 481.06, where most (although not all) of the position that is left is to be covered. _______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 1:19 p.m. EDT): Check my post in the chat room just now for a tradable update.
Although crude oil is certainly tradable using Hidden Pivots, it rarely traces out patterns that I like. This one is an exception, however, and it promises to do everything we might ask of it. That means: 1) providing a good 'buy' signal at x=73.83, which it has already done; 2) offering a tightly stopped short at p=75.34; 3) making a move to D=78.37 a high confidence call if p is penetrated decisively; and 4) yielding a high-odds 'mechanical' buy at the green line if a pullback to it should occur from in-between p=75.34 and p2=76.86. Are you ready for this cornucopia of opportunity? _______ UPDATE (Jun 23, 7:25 a.m. EDT): The futures gapped explosively to within three cents (0.03) of the 78.37 target I flagged above as a good bet. If you took that bet and then got short at the target with a stop-loss as tight as a nickel, you could have caught and up and down ride worth as much as $4,000 per contract.
We've been in a tug-of-war with this rabid weasel, hoping against hope that it will get just a teensy comeuppance -- a fake one, admittedly -- with a feint below the grandiose 100,000 level. Saylor et al. must be quite pleased that there are no serious sellers in this vehicle, let alone short sellers. Holding it aloft is as easy as keeping a beach ball afloat in a swimming pool. My downside target remains 97,616 nonetheless, but in the meantime, I see a possible bottom-fishing opportunity at 102,053, a proprietary 'voodoo' support. This is a slight revision of a 101,174 correction target given earlier. Risk no more on the stop-loss than you would on a 20-to-1 filly that had a promising morning workout. ______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 9:52 a.m. EDT): Looks like Sunday's print at 99,039 will be as low as this charmless little hoax will go. I haven't given up on the 97,616 target, but we should put it aside now for the sake of practicality. The next stop on the way up will be at 109,243 (corrected upward on 6/24 at 3:08 p.m. EDT), my minimum objective at the moment.
This symbol has tracked my forecast for the last couple of weeks, but what now? Up or down in the week ahead looks like a coin-toss at the moment, but if rates break lower, expect them to fall to at least 4.278% (p2, the secondary Hidden Pivot), and to take a tradable bounce from that number. Best case (for borrowers, that is) would be for further slippage to d=4.161%, which presumably would be signaled by a decisive breach of p2=4.278%. Alternatively, if rates move higher, signaled by a two-day close above 4.439%, look for a move to 4.559%.
