When MSFT overshot a longstanding Hidden Pivot target at 503.69, it signaled more upside to at least 516.95. That is why I advised buying the stock 'mechanically' if it pulled back to 495.76 (the green line). Alas, it corrected no lower than 497.80 last week, stranding our bid. The trade remains viable, however, and you can keep bidding there, stop 448.60, until such time as the stock pushes above 509.89. (Alternatively, you should use a 'camo' trigger to initiate the trade if you know how, since it could cut the initial risk by as much as 95%.) The 516.95 target is still valid, as implied above and you can short there with a stop-loss as tight as 0.70, provided you've profited on the way up.
Gold's tedious consolidation for a shot at 3681.60 is now well into its third month, sapping my enthusiasm for pretending there is something interesting to talk about. The August contract has tripped several profitable 'mechanical' buy signals since mid-May, but each required close tending to produce a win. For the time being, the best opportunity we are likely to see would entail buying at the 'd' target of a reverse pattern on the chart shown, or perhaps the 60-minute. I will signal this if warranted.
The pattern shown is ugly-gnarly, but there is no mistaking the power of the rally that pushed it past p=34.75 in early June. This all but clinched more upside to D=41.06 in the weeks ahead. Our best opportunity to get long would be via a bid at 'd' of a reverse pattern. There have been no sufficient pullbacks on the weekly chart to enable this, but the intraday charts will nearly always provide the signal we're looking for. Query me in the chat room when appropriate and I may be able to provide timely guidance.
The irresistible power of the stock market's melt-up is on display in the fleeting B-C pullback shown in the chart (see inset). That's all it took to recharge this vehicle for an impending, 121-point surge to the 6429.00 'D' target. There can be little doubt the futures will get there, given the ease with which they penetrated the 6306.13 midpoint resistance last Wednesday and then closed above it. There are two compelling trades left in the pattern: a mechanical 'buy' at x=6244.50 if the futures should pull back sharply, and a tightly stopped short at D=6429.00 if you've profited on the way up. ________ UPDATE (Jul 7, 2:53 p.m. EDT): Today's plunge brought the futures down to within less than two points of x=6244.50, where I had suggested a 'mechanical' buy. If you got aboard near the low, I'd recommend taking a partial profit on the 21-point bounce that has occurred so far.
TLT weakened last week after creating a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, generating a theoretical sell signal in the process. If the so-far moderate decline is merely corrective, we should see a tradable rebound from the 85.99 midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart (inset). That is what I expect, but if the support gives way, especially on a closing basis, expect the slippage to continue down to at least p2=84.76, or even to a worst-case d=83.53. That would leave the important low at 83.30 recorded on May 22 intact, but only barely.
The pattern shown in the inset sucks for trading because the 'a' and 'c' highs are nearly equal, and because the a-b leg did not surpass any prior 'external' lows. That's why I'll suggest paper trading this one unless you know how to craft a small-pattern trigger (aka 'camouflage') that can reduce the $8200 entry risk to $270 or less per contract. However, merely spectating should help us determine with greater confidence whether the soul-crushing tedium of the last two months is more likely to give way to a breakout, or a breakdown. Regardless, if the August contract touches the green line (x=3394.70), that would trigger a theoretical 'mechanical' short, stop 3477. If the hypothetical trade produces a profit, that will imply that bears have at least a small edge at the moment. ______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 1:45 a.m. EDT): The futures will fall to at least 3301.80 before they can find a foothold. Bottom-fish there with a tight rABC trigger if you are familiar with the tactic. Otherwise, I'd suggest spectating.
The chart provides no strong clues concerning the direction of the next big move. Usually, charts of lesser degree are helpful when the bigger charts are unclear, as is currently the case in Comex Silver. In this case, however, last Wednesday's feint to the red line failed to touch it, denying us an opportunity to get short 'mechanically' when the futures rallied back up to the green line (x=36.939). The most promising trade I can discern in this chart would be to buy a swoon to d=35.812. That seems unlikely, but we should set a screen alert nonetheless so that we won't miss the opportunity if it comes.
The very gnarly ABCD pattern shown is one of my favorites because it rs tripped a profitable conventional long at the green line (x=106,290): a profitable short from the red line (p=107,900); and a profitable 'mechanical' buy at 106,900 that was recently featured here. There are two good possibilities left: a 'mechanical' buy at 107,900, stop 106,827; and a short from 111,118.27. Regarding the latter trade, I expect the target to show sufficiently precise stopping power to allow a very tight stop-loss if it is hit. Even if D is not reached, which seems unlikely, it will have kept us on the right side of a bullish trend since the futures were trading below 105,000. _______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 12:31 a.m. EDT): The 'mechanical' trade is showing a gain of nearly $1400 at the moment, so I'll suggest taking a partial profit if possible. If you swing for the fences, use a trailing stop that will preserve at least a nominal win no matter what. _______ UPDATE (Jul 9, 4:50 p.m.): This afternoon's strong short squeeze impaled my 111,118 rally target, clinching more upside over the very near-term to at least 112,739. That is a clear and compelling Hidden Pivot resistance, and if buyers brush it aside, expect the rally to continue to at least 117,676.
Last week's nasty short-squeeze stopped just shy of the 6250.38 target I'd drum-rolled, but the selloff that followed quickly reversed an hour before the closing bell. Since Microsoft performed similarly relative to a more quietly disseminated target at 503.69, we should begin the week with at least modest expectations that the stock market has suffered a stroke. However, let's not be too surprised if both vehicles blow past these calculated obstacles, much as they've been doing for years. I strongly doubt this will happen, although staking out a short position will have become more difficult because Friday's top occurred so close to one that only we 'knew' about. That's debatable, of course, since I myself raised the possibility that every Tom, dick and Harry we compete against has figured out how to 'read' the C-D midpoints of conventional patterns and to trade against them. In any case, if DaBoyz tighten their vise grip on bears' scrota as the new weeks begins, look for the futures to continue on up to at least p2=6469.81. ________ UPDATE (Jul 3, 1:35 a.m. EDT): Buyers shattered a concrete Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 6250.38, clearing a path to at least 6306.25 (60m, A=5993.25 on 6/25, B=6329.00 on 6/27). _______ UPDATE (Jul 3, 2:59 p.m.): The Mother of All Short Squeezes has blown past 6306.25 (see my last update) with such ease that more upside to at least 6429.00 is coming. That is the 'D' target of a pattern smaller than the one tied to the 6469.81 midpoint Hidden Pivot noted above, but we'll put it out of mind until 6429.00 is achieved and then, presumably, surpassed
[Note: I've changed the core list of touts, adding some futures contracts in order to provide more tradable opportunities. The new selections will vary from week to week. RA ] There are no sure things in the trading world, but the possibilities in the Copper contract shown in the chart look quite enticing. This pattern has already paid off twice with a 'conventional' buy at the green line (x=4.4079), and a 'mechanical' buy on the pullback to the red line (p=4.6983). It can still be milked for two additional trades: 1) a 'long' to d=5.2790; and ) a short when d=5.2790 is achieved (which looks like a foregone conclusion). The latter trade is the more promising, since the chart holds out the possibility of an important top at or near the target. ______ UPDATE (Jul 4): The futures made scant headway last week toward the 5.2790 target noted above. Short there with a tight stop-loss if you've held a long position that made money on the way up. The target is the 'd' terminus of a large 'reverse' pattern begun last winter, so a reversal there could conceivably be an important one, and you should treat it as such. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Jul 11) Trump's latest tariff threat spiked the price of copper by nearly $1.00 per pound in a single day, blowing past my 5.2790 rally target with ease. I'd suggested shorting there only to subscribers who were long on the way up, but the extreme volatility of the move could have produced results that varied significantly. I'd be interesting in hearing from those who did the trade, since it will sharpen my ability to tailor trades to suit your needs and your appetite for risk.
