Rick’s Picks

I've applied my very bullish interpretation of the S&P chart to Microsoft shares this week, producing an ambitious bull-market target at 593.79. This effectively shelves the question of whether the engineered, short-covering spike to 555.45 on July 31 marked a definitive top. It did not, as long as we give sufficient weight to the ease with which buyers surmounted the pattern's 469.26 midpoint Hidden Pivot in June. Looking ahead, if MSFT is going to sync up with the thousand-point rally I've forecast for the S&Ps, it would imply the current correction has significantly further to go, possibly to the 469.29 midpoint, or even to the green line (x=407.04).  A 'mechanical'  buy at either would be an opportunity we should not pass up, so be ready.

I wouldn't touch this little hoax until it comes down to the 113,924 Hidden Pivot target shown. Bitcoin would be a spec buy there, tightly stopped, although I've masked the predictive pattern's coordinates for reasons of confidentiality.  Earlier, I'd expected a tantalizing low of 105,762 to materialize, but we've seen no such weakness. Does this portend an even higher top, as Bitcoin ascends to water-show heights for a 150-foot dive into a wet sponge? Perhaps. There is a good case for a bull-market high at 134,728, but you'd be foolish to hold out for more, no matter how strong the exhortations from pubescent experts who see the King of Cryptos rising into the zillions.

October Gold's latest relapse has brought it down to within easy distance of the 3317.70 Hidden Pivot support I'd said would provide a risk-averse buying opportunity.  At the least, the target will have spared you the pain of trying to bottom-fish this brick as it began to fall from 150 points higher.  The pattern I used to project a tradable low is sufficiently gnarly that a turn from very near the target is likely.  Typically, I use 'reverse pattern' triggers to reduce entry risk to relative pocket change on trades that go against the trend. Since this tactic could require course corrections in real time, however, I can only suggest that you bottom-fish using your own risk-management methods. If the Hidden Pivot works, the futures should reverse from within no more than 4 to 5 points of 3317.70. If one assumes the turn will come from within a point or less of the target, it's possible to fashion a trigger on the one-  or three-minute chart that limits entry risk to less than $100 per contract.

I've settled on the hourly chart, with an ambitious rally target at 78.31, as our lodestone. The gap through p=71.12 on first contact is not merely encouraging, it is highly favorable toward the continuation of the uptrend to at least 78.31. There is also reason for caution just above, at 74.72, a secondary Hidden Pivot that closely coincides with the 74.88 'D' target of an alternative pattern displayed here last week.  An imminent stall seems likely, but if it is brief, you can take that as evidence D will be achieved.

I wouldn’t touch this little hoax until it comes down to the 113,924 Hidden Pivot target shown. Bitcoin would be a spec buy there, tightly stopped, although I’ve masked the predictive pattern’s coordinates for reasons of confidentiality.  Earlier, I’d expected a tantalizing low of 105,762 to materialize, but we’ve seen no such weakness. Does this portend an even higher top, as Bitcoin ascends to water-show heights for a 150-foot dive into a wet sponge? Perhaps. There is a good case for a bull-market high at 134,728, but you’d be foolish to hold out for more, no matter how strong the exhortations from pubescent experts who see the King of Cryptos rising into the zillions. _____ UPDATE (Aug 19, 1:05 p.m.): Check the chat room for an updated target (113,344, already exceeded slightly), and trading instructions. _______ UPDATE Aug 21, 1:08 p.m.): Sellers are crushing ‘concrete’ Hidden Pivot supports with ease. The next tradable ‘hidden’ support lies at 107,064, which can also serve as a minimum downside objective. If it shows little pluck, Bitcoin could be on its way down to as low as 89,595. That’s not far from a target aired here months ago that I came to view as unlikely to be achieved any time soon. Right now, though, pending confirmation by a breach of 107,064, it is looking like no worse than an even-money bet

As a hard-core permabear, I find this chart painful to contemplate. It says a thousand-point rally is coming in the S&Ps and that nothing, not even an October surprise, can derail it. This conclusion is related to the way in which buyers penetrated the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 6165.88. Not only did they slice through it on the first try, they then closed above it for three consecutive bars and never looked back. The pattern itself is too obvious to yield a penny-precise top to short, but there is no mistaking the power that made such short work of p=6165.88. As many subscribers will already know, price action at the midpoint pivot is a reliable telltale even when the underlying pattern is less-than-appealing, never mind perfect. In this instance, there is also the prospect of a back-up-the-truck bottom-fishing opportunity if the futures relapse to the green line (x=5498.94).  Although the implied plunge of nearly a thousand points would be widely viewed as the start of a bear market, it would be an exceptional opportunity to reload, as far as we're concerned.

There are no appealing reverse patterns for predicting how much higher the next thrust will go above the record 6468.50 achieved on July 31.  However, the conventional ABCD pattern shown suggests the move could stall at a minor target at 6435.50.  Instead of trying to get short there, I'll suggest doing so at 6447.75, a voodoo number that is unlikely to be on the radar of the bozos and algos we presume to trade against. We'll use the tightest possible stop-loss I can craft, based on a 3.0-point trigger interval from within 1.00 point of the voodoo target. If you are unfamiliar with this tactic, you should paper-trade it. If and when ES blows past the old high, we'll have some reverse (rABC) patterns to work with to help forecast this gas-bag with tight precision.

No change in last week's outlook. The stock has tripped a conventional sell signal that portends more downside over the next 6-8 days to at least p=493.67. That's the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a large, bearish rABC pattern projecting to as low as d=431.89. Regardless, p looks like it will be an opportune spot to attempt tightly stopped bottom-fishing. As always, a decisive breach of the midpoint would shorten the odds of more slippage to the D/d target.

Gold went all nitwitty at week's end on tariff news that threatened to disrupt the placid and predictable ho-hummery of the last four months.  On the daily chart, the move looks like just another peak to add to a series of three highs that have contained rallies since May. However, a closer inspection reveals that the new peak slightly exceeded the others. This means that gold has broken out, and although we shouldn't be surprised if it slips back into its accustomed wallow, we should treat a pullback as a corrective set-up for another leg up. Let's be ready to bottom-fish at 3410.70 just in case, since that is a midpoint Hidden Pivot support (a=3478.50 on 7/23) where a turn-up would be most likely to occur. A reverse-pattern trigger is preferable for entry, but you shouldn't need a stop-loss wider than 1.50 points. ________ UPDATE (11:13 p.m. EDT): A 1.50-point stop-loss would have gotten tagged shortly after sellers hit the red line, but a reverse-pattern trigger generated an entry signal at 3407.40 and a profitable exit on half at 3412.20 (60m, a=3418.00 on 8/8/). You're on your own if you're still in the trade, but don't be greedy, since the decisive breach of p was bearish. ______ UPDATE (Aug 12, 10:26 a.m.):  Gold is being made to look like garbage by sovereign buyers and bullion bankers who want it most. Most immediately, expect this manufactured plunge to hit 3317.70, a well-masked Hidden Pivot that can be bottom-fished with a tight reverse trigger.