What a shocker! Crude actually did something last week, falling so steeply that experts were left scratching their heads. I don't much care about the reasons they're giving for the collapse, since their comments would have been credible only if they had been broached before it occurred. Putting aside speculative blather, the futures look bound for the 57.03 target shown. This is a composite chart, so that number is unlikely to work perfectly. However, it will be good enough for government work -- and for the pleasure of motorists who will always welcome lower prices at the pump.
The corrective pattern shown should eliminate all the guesswork, since it says quite clearly that June Gold will fall to at least 2941.49 before it can consolidate for a run-up to new record highs above $3500. If the futures should rally from Friday's lows near 3032 to the green line (x=3136.60), don't get caught up in the excitement, since that would trigger a juicy 'mechanical' short. The 2941.4 downside target will be a back-up-the-truck number for attempting tightly stopped bottom-fishing, but it will take at least 10-12 trading days for the futures to get there. ______ UPDATE (Apr 9, 9:38 a.m.): The futures went no lower than 2970 before launching anew. This morning's sensational rally looks bound for a minimum 3141.40, a further $50 above. ______ UPDATE (Apr 11, 9:57 a.m. EDT): Gold is head-butting the 3261.40 target of this pattern and could use a rest. If bulls shred their way past it, it will shorten the odds that my big-picture target at 3533 target will be reached, and probably sooner rather than later.
Talk about overdone! I could have used a small a-b- segment to make trading the pending bounce less risky, but because the move higher is likely to exhaust the levels of the larger pattern, including its 35.205 target, I've featured the bigger picture. The futures could still work their way lower before turning around, but a voodoo number at 28.260 is the only spot that looks interesting for purposes of bottom-fishing. Otherwise, a 'trigger' rally to the green line should be regarded as a reliable signal of a reversal, even if it is too belated to get us in near the bottom. _______ UPDATE (Apr 7, 9:28 a.m. EDT): Based on an actual low at 27.545, the trade triggered at x=29.068 and produced a quick, relatively painless profit so far of $30,440 (!) on four contracts at p=30.590. Any contracts still held should use a 33,635 target. You can augment the position with a 'mechanical' bid at 29.068, stop 27.540. _______ UPDATE (Apr 9, 9:45 a.m. EDT): The May contract has stalled at the 30.590 midpoint Hidden Pivot associated with the 33.635 target furnished above. With gold soaring, the stall is unlikely to last. A pullback to x, especially if it comes from the sweet spot between p and p2, would generate a strong 'mechanical' buy.
With a longstanding rally target at 57.17 and a sell signal not far below, we had no trouble getting out of the way of last week's massacre. The vicious shakedown was engineered by the usual sleazeballs, but we'll have the luxury of rebuilding our inventory at prices that suit us, and without time constraints or pressure. The 49.42 'd' target of the pattern shown will be a good place to start, although it's conceivable the correction could bring GDXJ down to as low as 44.87 (a=55.58 on 10/22) before it turns around. That pattern implies that a run-up now to 55.17 would trigger a 'mechanical' short, so we should be on our guard against signs of premature exuberance. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 1:32 p.m.): Accumulating stock at the 49.42 correction target flagged above was a winning play, since GDXJ bottomed 9 cents below that number the next day before trampolining to 53.83.
With no comment or explanation, I proffered the pattern shown over at Golden Meadow just to demonstrate that, for all its histrionics, Bitcoin is our little bitch, as easy to nail as half-inch balsa. The pattern is a uniquely gnarly rABC, and I won't go into how I chose point 'a'. Be that as it may, it has already triggered three quick, $6,000 winners and should continue to do wo reliably as long as the 'c' low holds. The three trades include a conventional buy at the green line, a short at the red line, and a mechanical buy at the green line. It is currently on a fourth signal, a buy at the green line, but the rally will need to reach p=88,609 again before the trade can be declared a winner. Interest in Bitcoin at Rick's Picks appears to be almost nil, but I am here if you need me.
Last week's hard selling brought the futures down to the green line, signaling a moderately appealing 'mechanical' buy. The elongated b-c leg sapped some of the bullish energy from this pattern, and so we'll paper-trade this one to see how much moxie bulls have left. A gratuitous poke beneath c=5559.75 can be used to set up a 'counterintuitive' entry trigger of 46.50 points. That's too wide to be practical, so I'll suggest executing the trade with a 'camo' pattern taken from the 15-minute chart or less. I am giving the bull the benefit of the doubt because sellers missed an opportunity on Friday to generate a headline decline. _______ UPDATE (Mar 30, 10:52 p.m.); At the moment, the smallest trigger interval I can come up with for the 'CI' trade is 15.00 points, so this is still a paper-trade unless your 'camo' chops are up to snuff. ________ UPDATE (Mar 31, 3:08 p.m.): The trade produced a profit of as much as $4100 per contract after adjusting for an initial attempt that got stopped out.
Microsoft sat poised on a high ledge when the dust settled on Friday. Although the visually unavoidable plunge the chart displays so well could wait for a few weeks or longer, it's highly unlikely the stock's institutional sponsors will be able to hoist it to the $420 midpoint of the supply zone, never mind to new record highs. The alternative is a wealth-destroying slide into the low $300s that should bring a bounty of opportunity for the nimble, since it will be reflexively punctuated by rallies designed to keep hope alive until a bottom is reached.
Gold's steep rally has left doubters on the sidelines since January, a high price to pay for hesitating. The rally looks bound most immediately for 3198.70, a presumptive weigh station en route to the 3533.90 target of a larger pattern noted here earlier. That number is associated with a 'midpoint Hidden Pivot' at 3037 that should slow bulls down for a while, perhaps 2-3 weeks. If not, and the April futures forge intrepidly higher, it would shorten the odds of a run-up to 3553.90. An additional 'hidden' resistance you should prepare for lies at 3285.80. It can be shorted with a 'camo' trigger fashioned from the 15-minute chart.
Covering the remaining distance to the 37.305 target looks like it'll be a piece of cake. The pattern has yet to give a false signal, and any trade attempted with x, p or p2 as a reference point would have been profitable. The last juicy buying opportunity occurred on the pullback to the green line (x=31.380), about as 'textbook as mechanical trades get. Your trading bias should be bullish until 37.305 is hit, but be prepared for a stall there and a pullback, probably tradable.
Because this symbol is overdue for a correction, I've arbitrarily drawn a chart that could signal the start of one if GDXJ falls to 55.17. That would trigger a theoretical 'sell' signal with downside potential to at least 51.74. An additional 'hidden' support at 55.63 could provide a tradable bounce. The supports should not give way easily, and that is why we can safely assume Mr Market means business if they do.
