Bitcoin's low on December 29 got nowhere near the 89,246 Hidden Pivot support where I'd suggested bottom-fishing. The actual low occurred at 91,271, nearly $2000 above our implied bid, setting the stage for a recovery rally that looks likely to continue to at least 100,469. The small pattern associated with that target is shown at the tail end of the larger reverse pattern targeted on 98,599. It got poked and prodded, then slightly exceeded once more on Saturday, suggesting bulls are raring to go. The 98,993 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the small pattern should produce a fleeting pullback suitable for scalping, but expect it to be shoved aside ahead of a push to 100,469. (Please note that I've switched to a new symbol that, unlike BRTI, is tradable. It is listed on the Coinbase Exchange, GDAX.) _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 12:31 p.m. EST): Here's a chart you can use to tame this idiot-driven little sonofabitch. This morning's impalement of the red line (p=99,437) implies bitcoin will reach the 107,604 'd' target. Any one-level pullback can be bought 'mechanically' using a stop-loss equal to a third of what you stand to make if BTCUSD achieves d=107,604. I suggest paper-trading this one unless you know the rules for 'mechanical' trades and the location of the 'sweet spot'.
Last week's leap through the 2662 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown shortened the odds of a further run-up to d=2728,30, but I doubt the rally will top the record high 2826 achieved on October 30. That's because of the power of the bearish impulse leg in November that took the February contract from 2826 down to 2565 in just two weeks. This implies that quotes will fall to 2500 before this vehicle can get good traction. More immediately, a drop to the green line (x=2629.60) should be regarded as an opportunity to bottom-fish 'mechanically'. The implied $33 stop-loss means the trade should be executed only with a small-pattern (i.e., 'camouflage') trigger to reduce entry risk by at least 90% theoretical. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 9:43 a.m.): Using reverse a=2636.50 (15m, Jan 6 a7 2:45 a.m.) produced a quick, theoretical gain of $700 per contract, with two contracts covered at 2638.20 and two still 'live'. The 'd' target lies at 2651.80, and a pullback to 2631.40 would trigger another 'mechanical' long, stop 2624.50. _______ UPDATE (11:16 a.m.) Feb Gold has pulled back $9 after coming within a dime of the 2651.80 rally target I furnished a little more than an hour ago (see above). Going by-the-book and using reverse a=2636.6 would have produced a profit of around $4,800 on four contracts. That assumes a 50% partial profit at p=2,638.20, 25% at p2=2645.00, and the last 25% at d=2651.80. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 8:26 p.m.): Careful, since the current uptrend may have limited potential. I'm using a 2728.30 rally target, and your trading bias should be bullish until the futures get there. If buyers surprise by blowing past this Hidden Pivot resistance, it would open a path to at least 2765.80 or even 2866.00.
We should give silver's tortuous bottoming action the benefit of the doubt, since gold looks bullish at the moment. The March contract reaffirmed a theoretical 'buy' signal on Friday with a pop through the green line (x=29.954), but it will need to fist-pump its way past the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 30.763 to demonstrate the rally's staying power. Because the reverse-pattern's point 'a' low is a 'locked' coordinate with no alternatives, the levels should work well for shorting or for bottom-fishing 'mechanically. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 8:35 p.m.): Buyers pierced the 30.763 midpoint resistance, but not decisively enough to clinch safe passage to d=32.380. However, a return to the green line (x=29.954) no sooner than next week could be bought 'mechanically' with a 29.140 stop-loss. A 'camouflage' trigger is suggested to cut the $16,000 entry risk.
The Dollar Index has retraced slightly after pushing past the 109.30 Hidden Pivot resistance we were using as a minimum upside target. This has put into play the 112.20 'secondary Hidden Pivot' shown in the chart. Expect a tradable pullback from that 'invisible' resistance, but if it gives way easily, that would imply that bulls are fixing to take this symbol to D=124.82. Everyone should have noticed by now that the dollar's strength has not inhibited the long-term bull market in gold. It has been in a holding pattern, presumably developing thrust for the next phase of its ascent.
My coverage of crude will remain perfunctory, since paying closer attention might induce coma. Its gratuitous ups and downs over the last three years have been worse than merely screwing the pooch. The head-fakes, foot-fakes and other annoyances are especially difficult to trade, and even voodoo numbers don't seem to work. Although the sonofabitch cannot outsmart us when we observe its stupid little tricks on a 5-minute chart, it's simply not worth the effort to stalk them. No one has mentioned crude in the chat room in months -- not even Artie -- but I will continue to answer your trading-related questions as always.
The S&Ps have yet to collapse in the heat of Santa Season as I had suggested they might, but they are acting mighty strange. Friday should have been a slam-dunk for bullish seasonality. Instead, the futures doubled-topped just shy of a juicy rABC rally target before selling off hard to end the week. Granted, there was a heavy layer of supply just beneath early December's record high near 6200. But it's not as though setting up a short-squeeze to get past it should have posed any difficulty for the scumballs who manipulate the markets. Let's give it another day to see whether the thimble-riggers are impaired or merely toying with shorts. If the latter, the futures should produce a profitable 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=5930.44). You can trade this one for real if you know what you are doing, but it is not recommended for Hidden Pivot greenhorns.
The daily chart yields a much clearer picture than the 30-minute displayed here last week. It yields a 420.18 'd' target that can be used to bottom-fish the now three-week selloff with risk very tightly controlled. The downtrend did not demolish the midpoint Hidden Pivot support (p=438.17) on the way down, and that makes more weakness to d less than ironclad. However, it looks likely, and the gnarliness of the pattern suggests the turn from 420.18 would be sufficiently precise to allow for the tightest imaginable stop-loss. Please note that if MSFT is in a downtrend that has further to go, all U.S. stocks will be under similar pressure. _______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 10:56 a.m. EST): The trade was an easy winner using a reverse-pattern (rABC) to trigger, since the stock caught a nearly $6 bounce from 420.66. It eventually went lower, however, and is in the throes of a short-squeeze bounce off yesterday's bombed-out low at 414.85. Despite the ferocity of today's rally, I now expect the stock to fall to at least 409.05, and thence to 393.35. Plan on getting short with a tight stop if the bounce hits 430.07.
Bitcoin has drifted as low as 92,000 since topping two weeks ago a micron from a Hidden Pivot target at 107,343 that I'd flagged. The target came with an explicit recommendation to get short there. Now an opportunity is taking shape to bottom-fish the 89,246 target shown, again with as tight a stop-loss as you can craft. The pattern has already delivered a theoretically profitable 'mechanical' short position from the green line (x=97,218), at least half of which would have been covered on the subsequent drop to p=94,561. The bottom-fishing trade looks pretty juicy to me, so I will not be sharing it with the public or non-paying subscribers. To avoid queering its Hidden Pivot magic, I would ask that you not share it either. BRTI is not a tradable vehicle, so plan on interpolating the target for use with BTCUSD, GBTC, or any other symbol of your choosing.
I've labeled the impulse leg shown in the chart 'promising' because the pattern's point 'B' low crushed an external low the way reliable A-B legs are supposed to. So what does it promise? Two things of value to us: 1) a profitable 'mechanical' short if the futures should rally to the green line (x=2696.00); and 2) the prospect of bottom-fishing when D=2500.00 -- a logical minimum downside target -- is reached. Because a gaggle of village idiots will be trained on round-number support there, we shouldn't count too heavily on a precisely tradable turn. There is also a chance of that occurring from the secondary pivot, p2=2565.30. However, bottom-fishing there would need to be done with a 'counterintuitive' (i.e., rABC) trigger. Nudge me in the chat room for guidance in real time if I'm around. _______ UPDATE (Jan 2, 2:18 p.m. EST): I don’t trust today’s rally, but there is no percentage in trying to intercept it. The Feb contract is currently trading at 2668.30 and looks likely to achieve 2722.40. That would still leave it shy of December’s 2761.30 peak, let alone the record 2826.30 recorded on 10/30. One trade to recommend: buy a dip to 2628.10, stop 2596.70. Since that implies $12,000 of risk on four contracts, you would need to fashion a small-pattern trigger (aka ‘camouflage’) to cut the risk by 95% or more.
With the current focus on gold and silver futures calling for moderately bearish outcomes, I've selected a GDXJ chart that shows a potential best-case scenario. It implies that the 47.14 low that ended the week came close to fulfilling a minor d correction target at 46.69. If so, and the gold miners are close to an interim bottom, that would imply bullion prices are also about to turn higher. Regardless, GDXJ can be bottom-fished at 'd' with a reverse-pattern trigger of small degree (i.e., 'camouflage'). Alternatively, if sellers simply shred 'd', expect more downside to at least 44.75 (daily chart, A= 50.57 on 11/7). _______ UPDATE (January 5): Last week's rally failed to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart because its 44.91 apex fell 18 cents shy of surpassing the 45.o8 'external' peak recorded on December 20. This disappointing price action implies that the 40.21 'D' target is still likely to be reached.
