Rick’s Picks

Expect ten-year rates to continue ratcheting lower, at least to the 3.959% 'secondary pivot' shown in the chart. The breach of p=4.242% was not decisive, and rates have yet to close for two consecutive weekly bars below it. However, the initial downside penetration reached the 'sweet spot' between p and p2, implying that an uptick in rates to the green line (x=4.526%) would be a short sale.  The chart is inconclusive about whether d=3.675% will be achieved, but an overshoot of p2 would shorten the odds. It is my maximum downside target, nonetheless.

Once again, we return to a familiar target at 3040.90 that has kept us on the right side of the trend since late 2024, when there were nagging doubts.  I could have done with a little more consolidation before the April contract broke out of a fraught range last week, but I don't have much control over such things; I only try to see them coming. The daily chart suggests possible success bottom-fishing a moderate pullback to 2958.30 as the week begins.  I put out a target last week at 3230 that came from a 'blended' monthly chart, but let's upgrade that to the 3533.90 target shown. A stall precisely at p=3037.70 would help validate the pattern. It would also set up a promising 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x=2789.60 once the futures have reached the sweet spot between p and p2.

Comex Silver hasn't exactly shredded the midpoint resistance of the long-term pattern shown in the monthly composite chart. However, it has frolicked and danced there, suggesting that although bulls are in no great hurry to take the futures to as high as $53, they are determined to get there eventually. The target may not seem spectacular, and there are undoubtedly silver bulls hoping for a doubling of 2011's $50 top. That could still happen, but probably not before a lengthy and deep pullback from 53.06. First, let's allow bulls to turn the midpoint resistance into support with a patient consolidation above it.  Use 36.605, or 37.305 if any higher, as short-term rally targets. Both should evince a tradable pullback.

Bitcoins's pullback from the record 108,388 achieved in late December has overshot a 'd' target at 83,603, implying it will grope lower for support from either of two Hidden Pivot supports associated with a larger reverse (rABC) pattern begun from  a=69,000 in November 2021. The relevant levels lie, respectively, at 68,233, a p2 'secondary support' that should be used as a minimum downside objective for the time being; or d=54,848 if any lower.

Will there be one last melt-up before this doddering bull market seeks penance?  Some of my fellow gurus believe a final show of bravado is coming, especially those who base their predictions on Elliott Wave Theory. I think the party is over, but I'm forced to admit that if too many traders agree with me, new record highs fueled by short-covering are likely. My skepticism is based more on market psychology than on the charts displayed above.  We'll get to them in a moment, but first let's consider investors' state of mind, based on what people we know have been saying. Stocks came down hard in the last month -- hard enough for the usually thundering herd to wonder whether it might be time to bail out, or at least lighten up and move into cash. It was not quite a bloodfest, but the megastocks that made 2024 a year to brag about have been hit especially hard. When last week began, the broad averages had given up all of their Trump 2.0 gains and then some. But just when it seemed like stocks were about to go over the cliff, the S&Ps uncorked a 100-point rally on Friday, saving not only the day, but the week. Come Monday, fear will have turned into nervous hope. I expect Mr Market to encourage this self-deception with more upside. And if Friday's surge was the start of a bear rally worthy of the name, we should look for it to continue until nervous hope turns into greed. That would imply a run at the old highs. A Different Kind of Dip The similarities between the charts are too striking to dismiss, along with their implication that the Mother of All Tops is already in. As summer began in 2008, IBM came within

The chart is nearly identical to the one accompanying this week's commentary, but I'll add a proprietary detail that will allow you to plot the next three moves rather than just two.  I already mentioned that the selloff of the last three weeks could reverse from a 'voodoo' number at 5641.50.  However, if the bounce comes from 5555.00 as is more likely, it would be a good bet to terminate at either 5733.25, or if any higher, at 5912.00.  By all means, jot those numbers down, since they offer a possible way to get a tight, tradable handle on price action over the next 3-4 weeks. ______ UPDATE Mar 12): A so-far feeble bounce has come from 5534.00, 0.3% below the 5555 target given above. However, it would need to punch through Hidden Pivot resistance at 5712.75 to be judged significant.  The equivalent resistance for the June contract is 5765.25, and its decisive breach could open a path to as high as 5945.50 -- a bear rally worthy of the name.

Although a longstanding correction target at 373.39 remains viable, we'll go with a more timely picture that is bullish and which projects a bounce to as high as 418.66.  Friday's dip to the green line (x=390.43) triggered a 'mechanical' buy short that would require a 380 stop-loss, but we'll paper trade this one for now. It should be good for a ride up to at least p=399.83, but a decisive move through that midpoint Hidden Pivot would open a path to the 'd' target at 418 mentioned above.  _______ UPDATE (March 10, 11:00 a.m.): My apologies for the rickism of the month. I've corrected the trade noted above that was triggered at 390.43, since it was a 'mechanical' buy under discussion, not a short sale. Also, in case you didn't notice, MSFT failed to bounce and is falling with a vengeance, presumably to the 373.39 target we've been using for quite some time. _______ UPDATE (Mar 12): The bombed-out low of Microsoft's 40-point slide over the last three weeks missed my target by 3.52, or 0.9%, but a relapse that would fulfill the target exactly is still possible.  It would be worth bottom-fishing.

Bitcoin's lunatic swings are probably sufficient to ward off most bears, but those with enough guts to short the rallies are primed to make money. The nearly $13,000 swoon that began the week held bulls and bears within a tight range (i.e., $8000), but the breakdown that's coming will not pick up much support until BTCUSD is trading in the 70k-75k range. That might not have a measurable effect on the kahunas who control this vehicle since they never sell the stuff, but any Robinhoodies who have been buying all the way down will be feeling real pain by then.

I don't usually discard the old tout when I update during the week, but this time I'll make an exception for the sake of clarity. The original tout was wishy-washy bullish, but the new one keys off a chart with no wiggle room.  The April contract appears certain to fall to the 2876.40 midpoint Hidden Pivot support.  That will be an opportune spot to try bottom-fishing with the tightest stop-loss you can construct. (It should be no wider than 2872.40 in any case.) However, if it doesn't hold, and especially if the futures close for two consecutive days below it or trade lower than 2862, expect more slippage to D=2811.40.  The obviousness of the pattern will work against its providing perfectly precise reversal points, but they should be good enough for government work because the pattern, with a very kosher A-B impulse leg, is so compelling. ______ UPDATE (Mar 12, 4:42 p.m.): April Gold has rallied robustly over the last two days, but I doubt that it is about to take out the old high at 2974.00 straightaway. A 'voodoo' resistance at 2961.50 could test this theory, but if the futures relapse instead, look for the selling to hit 2884.00, at least. That is the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a conventional pattern drawn from the top, with a D target at 2819.00.