Expect this dive to reach a minimum 45.95, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a pattern projecting to as low as 40.93. If there is no respite from sellers at 45.95, the next stop would be 45.16, the 'd' target of a reverse pattern similar to the one proffered in March Gold. The decisive breach of any clear Hidden Pivot will always imply the next is likely to be achieved, but more bearish still is a two-day close beneath a Hidden Pivot.
The Dollar Index is stealing up on a key Hidden Pivot resistance at 107.36 that is associated with a D target at 109.30. The pattern is clear and compelling, so we could be confident its target will be reached if buyers push past p with ease. That is what I expect, and it would have negative implications for gold, as mentioned in my update for the February Comex contract. Shorts at p and D can be attempted nonetheless, using any vehicle of your choosing that corresponds directly or inversely with the dollar.
I'll trash bitcoin in a moment -- my new hobby -- but first a yellow alert for everyone who thinks the stock market's inevitable collapse is most likely to happen shortly after the first of the year. Although that seems quite plausible, fulfilling popular expectations is not how Mr Market usually works. Think how many lives he could wreck if the collapse were to begin any day now, at the height of Santa season. We should be especially cautious because premium levels for put options on the S&Ps have fallen to near-record lows. Although that does not tell us exactly when the crash is likely to begin, it does make one thing all but certain: The stock market's initial plunge will be so breathtakingly swift and steep that put prices will soar in mere hours to stratospheric levels where no one will want to buy them. Count on it. Concerning Bitcoin, I couldn't resist the temptation to weigh in at WSJ.com after they ran an article last week that attributed Bitcoin's extremely high price to 'scarcity'. The headline drew the usual crowd of youths who seemed to agree. Reaching deep into market history, one of them helpfully pointed out that Bitcoin has outperformed all other investible assets over the last decade. Who knew? Whatever he believes, it is indisputable that Bitcoin -- unlike tulip bulbs, which can produce beautiful flowers -- has an intrinsic value of zero. Granted, there's nominal value of perhaps $2-$3 per token because the blockchain within which cryptos are created can be used to effect and record financial transactions securely. But $100,000? That's absurd, considering Bitcoin cannot accomplish those tasks nearly as efficiently as credit cards or cash. Violent Money? And what kind of crazy 'money' explodes in value from five cents to a hundred thousand
With TLT poised for a breakout, I've lowered my target for rates on the 10-Year Note to 4.094%. The pattern is pretty nutty but still good enough for government work. That means D can be bought with a tight stop, using whatever vehicle you favor for trading the swings in long-term rates. Also, a decisive penetration of the Hidden Pivot support would imply rates are likely to fall even further. Could this indicate a recession is imminent? We'll worry about that after we've seen interest rate bears -- i.e., those who expect yields to fall -- interact with the support.
Any short attempted from the 6109.00 rally target we were using would have made money, even if tightly stopped, since the futures fell 20 points after topping on Friday at 6111.00. I did not establish a tracking position, however, because no one mentioned having done the trade. Now, if buyers close this gas-bag above 6111.00 for two consecutive days, expect more upside to the 6219.00 target shown in the thumbnail chart. Trade with a bullish bias until such time as the target is reached, then use a 49.50-point trigger interval to tell you when to get short. A 'camouflage' trigger will be necessary, since conventional-entry risk would be $10,000 on four contracts.
The chart shows two invisible impediments that could trip up bulls this week. The first lies at 446.62, the D target of a conventional pattern begun from 400 in early September. The second is a trendline resistance from a head-and-shoulders pattern that will come in around 455. Together, these potential rally-stoppers represent thick layers of supply between current levels and July's record 468. The oddity is that until July MSFT had been leading the market higher. Is it about to resume that role after underperforming lunatic-sector stocks for the last several months? We should be ready for this possibility in any event, so stay tuned for updates in the days ahead. _______ UPDATE (December 12, 10:45 a.m.): A diabolically sick time for MSFT to be short-squeezing higher just when the lunatic sector is coughing and wheezing itself to death. One could almost believe the chimpanzees who purport to 'manage' money actually do meet in a smoke-filled room to plot each gratuitous, stupid sector rotation. If the stock hits 460, I'll throw in the towel on that promising head-and-shoulders pattern that has perfectly defined and controlled the stock's ups and downs for the entirety of 2024.
The weekly chart I posted last week set a high bar for bulls. I've downsized this week to the hourly chart, which shows TLT about to test the resistance of a Hidden Pivot midpoint at 94.64. The rally has come far enough since November's sub-90 low to warrant the benefit of the doubt. As always, a two-day close above the red line or a decisive penetration of it would imply more upside to at least p2=97.18 or even to d=99.72).
Gold served up a second consecutive week of slop, making it difficult to guess what's on the minds of the thieves who manipulate it for a living (legally and with the Guvmint's complicity, of course). However, enduring uptrends tend to produce relative weak countertrends, and that describes this one so far. It has twice penetrated to Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 2647.90, but without sending the futures down to the pattern's 2605.30 target. They could still get there, but bears might be drained of energy by then. Alternatively, a pop through C=2690.50 would signal a resumption of the long-term bull trend. Worst case: a two-day close beneath 2617.50, portending more slippage to as low as 2487.00 (daily chart, A= 2826.00 on 10-31-24).
Last week's slight penetration of Nov 19's external high at 32.03 was bullish, although not very. It generated a weak impulse leg on the daily chart that implies any retracement this week that holds above 30.095 would be corrective and therefore a 'buy'. A further push up to p=32.483 would certainly call for a tightly tightly tightly tightly stopped short, presumably with a 'camo' trigger fashioned from the 5- or 15-minute chart. My worst-case target is 29.160, a back-up-the-truck number for those of you who have been waiting since early November for a better buying opportunity (daily chart, a= 33.76 on 5-29-24).
The pattern shown has worked perfectly so far, signaling a winning short from the red line and a theoretically juicy payoff from 'mechanically' bottom-fishing at the green line (x=6000.44). That means it's equally likely to work for getting short at D=6109.00 with a tight stop. Shining a spotlight on the trade on my front page could slightly queer the pattern's voodoo magic, so I'd suggest using a reverse-pattern trigger of small degree (i.e., sub-5 minute) to execute the trade. Because the first contact with p=6042.63 on the way up did not impale this Hidden Pivot resistance, there can be no ironclad guarantee the target will be reached, although it seems likely.
