Rick’s Picks

The Endless Bull Market still has a ways to go, although a key component of it, the E-Mini S&P 500, is coming up on an important Hidden Pivot resistance at 6803.75 that lies just 1.2% above. Trump's ability to transform an economy fatally swollen with debt into a beautiful vista is vastly overrated, as is the promise of AI, and that's why we should be on our guard for the onset of a bear market that is long overdue. Most immediately, that means paying close attention to price action at 6740.25, the midpoint between D and p2=6676.56. Trends within patterns as obvious as the one shown often fall short of expectations, and the midpoint between levels is where to expect such failures to occur. We'll treat this one as we would a conventional midpoint (p) Hidden Pivot, meaning the futures would become a strong bet to achieve 'D' if they blow past 6740.25. The D target is shortable but bound to get front-run because of the pattern's obviousness, so don't look for a precise turn from within a point or less of where we should want it to occur. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:07 p.m. EDT): Just a slight downward adjustment: I now see the futures achieving a minimum 6801.25. _______ UPDATE (Sep 25, 1:13 p.m. EDT): The futures have come down unusually hard after stalling precisely at the 6758.50 secondary pivot associated with the 6801 target identified above. They triggered a theoretical 'mechanical' buy signal at 6661.50 this morning, but a subsequent low flirted with the 6612.75 stop-loss, casting the bullish outlook into doubt. On the other hand, all previous bets that the bull market is at an end have lost, so we are obliged to give the bull the benefit of the doubt for now. We'll stay close to

This ETF proxy for the Long Bond has generated its first impulse leg since August with a pop above two prior peaks on the weekly chart. The move is not nearly as strong, and it is no reason to break out the bubbly, but it implies the rally cycle begun from 83.30 in May will achieve a minimum 92.91.  That is an important midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance associated with a big-picture rally target at 102.52. The target comes from a pattern on the weekly chart begun from 82.42 in October 2023. As always, a decisive penetration of 'p' on first contact would shorten the odds of a continuation to as high as 'D' , but to least p2 (97.82 in this case). ________ UPDATE (Sep 25): The correction should come down to at least 88.08 before TLT turns around, but if it doesn't, I'll need to ratchet down my mild bullishness a smidgen.

The riff-raff were out in force last week, frontrunning the 3751.30 target of the too-obvious pattern shown in the chart. Coy as ever, the futures turned lower from a peak that fell 7 points shy of the target, a well-defined Hidden Pivot.  Looking ahead, there are three possibilities to consider: 1) the gallimaufry gets sucked in by a marginal feint above the high; 2) the futures surpass the peak and keep on going; or 3) a significant correction paves the way for a new burst of exuberance. I rate #3 the most likely, although that wouldn't preclude a head-fake first to a marginal new high.  The healthiest and most bullish scenario I could imagine would begin with a pullback to 3520.70, a midpoint Hidden Pivot that could be bottom-fished aggressively with a tight stop. That number is based on the record 3714.00 high remaining intact. However, it would need to be adjusted by the incremental amount of any new top that occurs in the week(s) ahead. If a correction is starting that trounces the 3520.70 support, expect it to continue down to at least 3424.10, or to 3327.40 if any lower. These numbers would also be subject to a 1:1 revision if the futures take out last week's high. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 3:15 p.m. EDT):  It didn’t take long for gold bulls to show their hand. Today’s hyperdrive rally has set the December Comex contract on a path to at least 4128.10, a Hidden Pivot that lies 345 points, or 9%, above current levels. There is no room for debate or doubt, as far as I’m concerned. The move must be traded with small-pattern ‘triggers’ to limit risk, since powerful trends attract crowds that cannot but beat their own brains in and cause the rally to become diabolically evasive

I am unfurling the yellow flag in Silver, since the December contract nearly maxed out bullish targets on the monthly with last week's rally to 43.435. That slightly exceeded a major Hidden Pivot target at 43.282 that I've since adjusted upward by a penny.  Notice that there is still an unused 'A' low at 19.340 from September 2022 that would yield a somewhat higher target at 45.944. Although it could eventually come into play, I doubt this would happen before the futures have corrected off the 43.292 target associated with the higher, one-off 'A' I've used. Don't go all-in if buyers start the week with a pop above last week's high. That's because there is a minor target at 43.585, or perhaps 43.770, that could repel the bullish herd. Either of these 'conventional' Hidden Pivots is shortable, provided you know how to set up a camouflage trigger that would limit entry risk to literal pocket change. ______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 4:14 p.m. EDT):  The futures have blown past every minor Hidden Pivot resistance on the intraday charts today, implying they are bound for a minimum 45.944, the target flagged above. _______ UPDATE (Sep 26, 11:42 a.m. EDT): Use the 48.635 target shown here as a minimum upside objective. December Silver has exceeded all major targets, so we are extending its immediate upside potential with the Hidden Pivot target of a smaller pattern, the only one we've got to work with at the moment. 

Switching from the November contract to the December yields a somewhat higher target at 3751.20. Like the earlier target at 3719.70, this one looks likely to be reached. However, the odds of an overshoot have improved by a tad. That's because the futures spent a whole week consolidating just beneath the 'D' target, which would be a lot of work just to produce a marginal pop to a new high a mere $36 above the previous one. Regardless, we'll be ready to get short there cautiously, since the pattern is compelling, even if too obvious to predict a top precisely. UPDATE  (Sep 18, 12:08 a.m. EDT): Fed “news” caused the futures to head-fake to 3744.00, slightly above yesterday’s all-time high. Having frightened themselves with this breakout, traders then retreated $64 to leave our short offer unfilled. The target remains valid, although it is no longer a good bet for us.

GDXJ has shredded its way past all lesser targets, leaving just one more, major, Hidden Pivot resistance at 93.89 that comes from the weekly chart and beckons a test. Judging from the ease with which buyers penetrated the midpoint resistance at 78.90, the target is all but certain to be reached. It is nearly as likely to produce a precise reaction, meaning you should consider covered writes if you hold a long-term position.  I advised doing so at a lesser target not far below, but there was relatively little resistance. This time it is likely to be different, but if GDXJ melts through the resistance anyway, I'll need to rummage through my bag of technical tricks to come up with a new target, since the one at 93.89 is the highest I can produce with conventional tools. In most cases, this entails extrapolating an 'extension' target from the intraday charts. This tactic will yield Hidden Pivots that should be expected to show shortable stopping power, but it is not a reliable means for predicting a major top. _______ UPDATE (Sep 25, 2:14 p.m.): Bulls vaporized the 93.89 target on first contact, ensuring that the nearly vertical rally will continue to at least 104.85. This Hidden Pivot target does NOT come from the lesser charts, which reveal nothing of interest at the moment, but from weekly bars. The pattern is unorthodox, but our rule is that the midpoint Hidden Pivot of all patterns, however odd, will unfailingly yield an accurate assessment of trend strength. Since p=84.38 got impaled the first time it was touched, that means the move must reach D, even if this 'hidden' resistance does not mark the ultimate top. Here's the chart.

Earlier, I used a continuous chart to project a potentially important top at 53.06. But because silver is flirting with possibly rally-stopping resistance $10 below that, I've used the December contract to produce a more precise target. It shows the futures to have slightly exceeded a target tied to a point 'A' low recorded in October 2023. However, there is a still higher target, unachieved, at 43.282 that comes from a lower 'A' at 21.992 notched seven months earlier. This is shown in the chart. I have used it to produce a bull market target at 43.282 that maxes out possibilities on the daily chart, although not the monthly. That is why we should pay close attention when the December contract hits 43.282, which it will. I expect a tradable stall there, although probably not a fatal one, because there will still be an outstanding target at 53.06.

Bitcoin's bounce two weeks ago from within a hair of a correction target at 107,064 has gotten legs and now promises more upside over the near term to as high as 119,160. Bulls have all but clinched a move to at least 116,183, the 'secondary' Hidden Pivot resistance (p2) of the pattern shown. However, a follow-through to D=119,160 is not a done deal yet and would be predicated on a decisive penetration of 116,183 on first contact. Meanwhile, a relapse to 110,272 (x, the green line) can be bought with a 107,249 stop-loss. ______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 2:01 p.m. EDT): Bulls have popped this gas-bag to 116,365 this morning. That's 0.15 percent higher than my minimum target, but not quite enough to guarantee that D=119,160 will be achieved. I expect this to happen, but the yellow flag is out anyway just to be extra cautious. _______ UPDATE (Sep 20): No change, although I'll suggest shorting the 119,160 target with tight risk-control., since I strongly doubt BTC will take it out without a see-saw battle. If it does, it would be signaling more upside to at least 126,622, or 132,996 if any higher.  _______ UPDATE (Sep 22):  Bitcoin's meaningless histrionics have not altered my rally target, although I will:  with a small upward adjustment to 119,740. Meanwhile, the current correction looks bound for at least 110,435, but a breach of that Hidden Pivot support could send bulls down to as low as 107,894 in search of traction. ________ UPDATE Oct 2, 2:41 a.m.): The little hoax rallied to within 0.2% of my target, close enough for us to consider it precisely fulfilled. Anyone care to know exactly where it is going next? I saw a ZeroHedge article about a supposed double-top in this vehicle, but I'm guessing it was written by a Starbucks

Bloomberg and other news sources that despise Trump and wish him ill have been asking with increasing fervor whether a recession is taking hold in the U.S.  Of course it is, as any middle-class American could have told you. But in this chart, we have a corroborating detail: long-term rates are headed lower, presumably because of a weakening economy. The two stalls since early July at the red line had seemed to imply that T-Bond futures were trapped in a bearish pattern that might at best produce sideways movement for the foreseeable future. However, this week's powerful blast through the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 87.88 suggests that T-bond prices will continue to rise at least until D=92.45 is reached. A corresponding drop in long-term rates would yield 4.49%, down significantly from the current 4.68%.  This is a high-confidence call, although there is a possibility the decline in rates will stall or reverse at 4.66%, just a hair below.