Bulls finally broke through a crucial midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 3423.20 after weeks of pumping and priming, clearing the way for more upside to at least p2=3559.20, the pattern's secondary pivot. As always, its decisive breach would portend a likely finishing stroke to D=3695.30. We are unlikely to see a swoon back to the green line (x=3281.10), but if this should occur, plan on bottom-fishing there 'mechanically' with a 3151.00 stop-loss. More immediately, if the future haven't exceeded 3467.00, you can try bottom-fishing around 3356.80. That number could be expected to work exactly but for the fact that it coincides with a previous low at 3358.50 recorded on June 12 that is going to attract too many eyeballs. _______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 2:59 p.m. EDT): With Wall Street celebrating “risk-off” like there will be a million bright tomorrows, bullion is getting hit especially hard. Just remember, the selling is being orchestrated by agents who are eager to buy the stuff. I expect the fake carnage to continue down to 3361.70 [modified] before the futures turn around. August Gold is currently trading around 3407.90. _______ UPDATE (Jun 19, 9:12 a.m. EDT): My revised correction target for August Gold (see above) came within $2.10 of nailing the v-shaped low of a so-far $33 rally. It's too early to tell whether this will mark an important bottom, but if you got aboard near the low, you should be out of a third to half of the position with a partial profit of as much as $3,000 per contract. Assuming the bounce continues, the closest target is 3419.00. Here's a graph that shows it all. _______ UPDATE (Jun 20, 1:22 a.m. EDT): The futures have relapsed after rallying sharply from within an inch of my 3361.70 correction target (see above). I recommend playing for
We can breathe easier when July Silver touches the pink line (p2=37.291) since that would make any one-level pullback a correction that we could buy 'mechanically'. It would also shorten the odds of further progress toward a 40.439 target that I've assured you will be achieved. In the meantime, the futures are in limbo, looking for a favorable gust to help things along. If July Gold achieves a comparable target at 3695 at the same time, the gold:silver ratio would stand at around 91, down significantly from recent highs above 100.
Although Bitcoin is considered one of the most volatile and challenging vehicles to trade, it is actually the unwitting bitch of Hidden Pivots, tracing out swings as predictable as rush-hour pileups on the San Diego Freeway. I have demonstrated this repeatedly with trend and target calls that have been correct at least 85% of the time. (If you have observed otherwise, by all means leave a comment.) Last week, I recommended shorting aggressively into a nasty short squeeze that pushed Bitcoin more than $10,000 higher in three days. The countertrend trade produced a gain of $3596 a couple of days later for anyone who followed my simple instruction. Will Bitcoin now come down to 97,616 as further predicted? We'll see. If it does, plan on bottom-fishing there with a stop-loss as tight as 0.2%, or $225. Good luck!
I've identified bearish targets well below these levels at, respectively, 81.64 and 77.49, but I'm giving every countertrend blip the benefit of the doubt so that I am not caught unawares if an important turn comes. This blip was Thursday's gap-up rally above two prior peaks on the daily chart, one of them 'external'. That generated a bullish impulse leg, implying Friday's mild sell-off was merely corrective. (The weakness also failed to reach a downside 'd' target, which adds to the short-term-bullish picture.) Let's see what the new week brings. If TLT can push above the 88.21 'external' peak recorded on May 7, that would be worthy of serious attention. ______ UPDATE (Jun 20): A tedious, disappointing week, although by no means cause for despair. TLT still needs to fist-pump above the 88.21 peak from May 7 to command our respect.
Last night's explosive move through the 70.82 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown has removed any doubt its 86.51 target will be reached. It seems improbable that there should be a lid on an energy market that is now on wartime footing, but that's what the chart implies. However, if the move even slightly exceeds the target, and thence early April's slightly higher 'external' peak at 87.63, a lurch toward the magnetic $100 mark would probably become inevitable. In any event, your trading bias should be aggressively bullish until such time as 86.51 is reached.
I've used the June chart to allow a little more running room for the finale of this now two-month-old bear rally. The new target lies at 6132.75, about 82 points above the one given here previously. Although I am fairly confident the Hidden Pivot resistance will work, I'm prepared nonetheless for a Mother of All Tops to occur marginally above last December's record-high 6235. I don't usually dig in my heels where mere feelings are involved, but I've had it up to here with bullish hubris and the idiotic notion that stocks somehow deserve to be trading at these levels. We are literally at a civilizational height of folly, and the usual shenanigans will not suffice to push this vehicle through formidable layers of supply that accumulated between last October and March. It may be working for Microsoft, but that is why I expressed doubts earlier that the broad averages would follow.
Try shorting the 486.17 target shown, since it promises a high-odds climax to the hoax rally that has wafted MSFT into the ozone since May 1. I explained earlier how this trick is done, and I will not belabor the details yet again. However, the manipulators themselves are controlled by forces they do not acknowledge, much less understand, and that's why this pattern will work. It can also be used to bottom-fish a swoon using a mechanical bid at 458.64, stop 449.46. To enhance your odds, I will not drum-roll this target in the chat room, nor make it publicly viewable.
Despite the rabid-mongoose energy of Friday's short-squeeze rally, I'm unpersuaded that this vehicle will not come down to d=97,616 before it stages a meaningful reversal. Regardless, I'd rather do my buying down there, even if we are forced later to attempt it at a higher price that will require more care and effort. In the meantime, we can test the integrity of the pattern by 'mechanically' getting short at 108,404, stop 112,001. We would be shooting for a one-level profit on a pullback thereupon to p=104,808. The trade is recommended only to those who are familiar with my tactics and comfortable using them.
The strong rally materialized on schedule, then stalled almost precisely at the 3423.20 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance that I'd flagged. Bulls will need to exceed this impediment decisively to clear a path for more upside to the 3559.20 'secondary' pivot, and thence D=3695.30. I'd said that last target would take 5-7 weeks to reach, but there can be no guarantees it will be reached at all until such time as p=3423.20 is left choking on prop wash. More immediately, plan on bottom-fishing if the futures pull back to x=3287.10. A 3150.00 stop-loss would be appropriate, but you'll need to employ your own risk-reduction strategy to pare the theoretical entry risk of $13,700 per contract down to something closer to $300. I do this by using a much smaller 'trigger' pattern to get me aboard, a somewhat labor-intensive tactic called 'camouflage'
I almost never use conventional ABCD patterns any longer, but it's the only choice we have at the moment. Fortunately, even lousy patterns that every pinhead and algo on earth see still work with respect to the predictive value of price action at p, the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p). In this case, the decisive move through p=34.142 all but guarantees the rally will reach a minimum D=40.439. It seems odd that the freakish skew of the gold:silver ratio is about to end with so little fanfare, but in this case, all it will have taken to start bringing the two back into line is just a couple of extra-strong rallies in silver that went unmatched by gold.
