Rick’s Picks

I've identified bearish targets well below these levels at, respectively, 81.64 and 77.49, but I'm giving every countertrend blip the benefit of the doubt so that I am not caught unawares if an important turn comes. This blip was Thursday's gap-up rally above two prior peaks on the daily chart, one of them 'external'.  That generated a bullish impulse leg, implying Friday's mild sell-off was merely corrective. (The weakness also failed to reach a downside 'd' target, which adds to the short-term-bullish picture.) Let's see what the new week brings. If TLT can push above the 88.21 'external' peak recorded on May 7, that would be worthy of serious attention. ______ UPDATE (Jun 20): A tedious, disappointing week, although by no means cause for despair. TLT still needs to fist-pump above the 88.21 peak from May 7 to command our respect.

Last night's explosive move through the 70.82 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown has removed any doubt its 86.51 target will be reached.  It seems improbable that there should be a lid on an energy market that is now on wartime footing, but that's what the chart implies. However, if the move even slightly exceeds the target, and thence early April's slightly higher 'external' peak at 87.63, a lurch toward the magnetic $100 mark would probably become inevitable. In any event, your trading bias should be aggressively bullish until such time as 86.51 is reached.

I've used the June chart to allow a little more running room for the finale of this now two-month-old bear rally. The new target lies at 6132.75, about 82 points above the one given here previously. Although I am fairly confident the Hidden Pivot resistance will work, I'm prepared nonetheless for a Mother of All Tops to occur marginally above last December's record-high 6235.  I don't usually dig in my heels where mere feelings are involved, but I've had it up to here with bullish hubris and the idiotic notion that stocks somehow deserve to be trading at these levels. We are literally at a civilizational height of folly, and the usual shenanigans will not suffice to push this vehicle through formidable layers of supply that accumulated between last October and March. It may be working for Microsoft, but that is why I expressed doubts earlier that the broad averages would follow.

Try shorting the 486.17 target shown, since it promises a high-odds climax to the hoax rally that has wafted MSFT into the ozone since May 1.  I explained earlier how this trick is done, and I will not belabor the details yet again. However, the manipulators themselves are controlled by forces they do not acknowledge, much less understand, and that's why this pattern will work. It can also be used to bottom-fish a swoon using a mechanical bid at 458.64, stop 449.46. To enhance your odds, I will not drum-roll this target in the chat room, nor make it publicly viewable.

Despite the rabid-mongoose energy of Friday's short-squeeze rally, I'm unpersuaded that this vehicle will not come down to d=97,616 before it stages a meaningful reversal. Regardless, I'd rather do my buying down there, even if we are forced later to attempt it at a higher price that will require more care and effort. In the meantime, we can test the integrity of the pattern by 'mechanically' getting short at 108,404, stop 112,001.  We would be shooting for a one-level profit on a pullback thereupon to p=104,808. The trade is recommended only to those who are familiar with my tactics and comfortable using them.

The strong rally materialized on schedule, then stalled almost precisely at the 3423.20 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance that I'd flagged. Bulls will need to exceed this impediment decisively to clear a path for more upside to the 3559.20 'secondary' pivot, and thence D=3695.30. I'd said that last target would take 5-7 weeks to reach, but there can be no guarantees it will be reached at all until such time as p=3423.20 is left choking on prop wash. More immediately, plan on bottom-fishing if the futures pull back to x=3287.10. A 3150.00 stop-loss would be appropriate, but you'll need to employ your own risk-reduction strategy to pare the theoretical entry risk of $13,700 per contract down to something closer to $300.  I do this by using a much smaller 'trigger' pattern to get me aboard, a somewhat labor-intensive tactic called 'camouflage'

I almost never use conventional ABCD patterns any longer, but it's the only choice we have at the moment.  Fortunately, even lousy patterns that every pinhead and algo on earth see still work with respect to the predictive value of price action at p, the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p).  In this case, the decisive move through p=34.142 all but guarantees the rally will reach a minimum D=40.439. It seems odd that the freakish skew of the gold:silver ratio is about to end with so little fanfare, but in this case, all it will have taken to start bringing the two back into line is just a couple of extra-strong rallies in silver that went unmatched by gold.

You can be confident the bull market will reach the 74.87 target shown, given the way buyers speared p=66.14 on first contact. This target is slightly higher than the one given here previously because I've switched to a daily chart that uses a 'marquee' low at 49.33 as point 'A'.  This is justified by the power of the impulse leg, although we should still be alert to a possible stall at 74.11, the original target. More immediately, be ready to attempt a 'mechanical' buy at the red line (p=66.14) using a 63.23 stop-loss if the opportunity should arise.

There's no point in sugar-coating it: minor, bullish impulse legs on the daily chart have not been strong enough to reverse the horrific carnage in U.S. Bond markets. Absent some hitherto unimagined turn of affairs, we should expect TLT's slide to continue down to the 77.49 target shown, at least. The short-lived rally in early April to the green line triggered a theoretically profitable short, so we know the pattern is working. It now says p2=81.64 will be the next stop on the way down, so let's use that as a minimum downside objective for now,