Rick’s Picks

Rates on the 10-Year Note gave up little ground last week, suggesting they want to move higher. If so, they'll have a chance to make an important top at 4.92%, the Hidden Pivot 'd' target of the reverse pattern shown. A precise reversal is likely there, given the obscurity of the pattern that produced resistance. We can use it as a minimum upside objective as well. That's bad news, considering the amount of refinancing ($9Tr.) the U.S. Treasury must do this year. There are no guarantees that the 4.92% target will cap the uptrend, but if it gives way, it will put a lot of weight on stocks.

A 3360.50 rally target kept us confidently on board last week, even though DaBoyz tried their hardest to shake bulls loose on Thursday. Notice that the futures slightly exceeded the target by $6.  The 0.17% overshoot may not seem significant, but it has bullish implications in this case because the target, a Hidden Pivot resistance, should have worked precisely.  The next rally target lies at 3393.10, the midpoint resistance of a bigger, conventional pattern going back to April 7's 2970.40 low. It is tied to a 'D' target at 3662.80 that lies $153 above the previous record.

Reaching d=35.982 shouldn't pose a problem, although we may be able to squeeze off a short from there, since it coincides with a voodoo resistance number. A two-day close above it would activate the 39.272 target of a larger pattern  (continuous weekly, A= 16.314 on 3/20/20). That chart has produced just one 'mechanical' buy signal, a profitable one from p=30.93, but a second dip to that price would be an appealing place to try again, stop 27.170. _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 12:50 a.m. EDT): Silver’s big move today nearly maxed out the gnarly reverse pattern shown with a blast to 34.935 that came within six cents of d=34.995. Yes, I am just skeptical enough that we'll keep the burden of proof on bulls for now, meaning they've got to close this brick above 34.995 for two consecutive days, or trade above 35.800 intraday, to earn our confidence. 

Last week's sharp reversal laid waste to a bearish target I'd proffered at 53.51.  The switch to a conventional pattern shows there is now upside potential to as high as 74.11 over the next 2-3 weeks.  More immediately, buyers will need to get past the 65.78 midpoint resistance shown in the chart to become an odds-on bet for a run-up to the target. Once achieved on a closing basis for two consecutive bars, you can use p2=69.95 as a minimum objective. A one-level pullback should be regarded as an opportunity to get long. _______ UPDATE (Jun 2, 11:58 p.m. EDT): The week has opened with a powerful short squeeze that sent this vehicle soaring to a so-far top just 19 cents shy of my minimum upside objective at 69.95.  Now, a two-day close above it will all but clinch a finishing stoke to the 74.11 target.

Last week's $7000 rally sputtered out $1000 shy of my 113,127 target, denying us an opportunity to reverse the position for the return trip south. The downtrend looks likely to achieve a minimum 106,020, a Hidden Pivot support you can bottom-fish with the tightest possible stop-loss. Confirmation of a likely reversal from very close to that number came with the precise bounce from the pattern's 108,045 midpoint Hidden Pivot support (p=108,045). Use a tight stop-loss to get aboard, but be prepared for a tricky bottom, since  the target coincides with a bunch of lows recorded one day last week.

Crude looks primed to screw the pooch, but the daily chart suggests two trade possibilities nonetheless.  One would call for getting short on a pop to d=65.38.  A stop-loss as tight as 15 cents can be used, although it would be preferable to set up a 'camo' trigger pattern on a chart of a lesser degree. The second trade calls for bidding 'mechanically at the green line (x=57.0). The textbook stop-loss would be just below c=54.33, so tighter risk management is called for by entering the trade with a trigger pattern of small degree. _______ UPDATE (Jun 11): Today's unusually powerful spasm suggests war may be coming, perhaps in the form of the long-anticipated strike on Iran's nuclear bomb facilities by Israel. There are many other imaginable catalysts, however, and they should all be taken seriously if this spike gets past two tough obstacles: 1) a Hidden Pivot at 68.98; and 2) the distinctive peak at 71.10 recorded on April 2.

If DXY is going to resume the uptrend begun in April from 98.01, the 98.66 Hidden Pivot support shown would be a logical place for this to occur. The pattern is a conventional one, but because the 'B' low is not obvious, its gnarliness should work for us, delivering a tradable bottom precisely where expected. We don't typically trade this vehicle, but a reversal from the target could yield opportunity in currency pairs or futures. ______ UPDATE (May 30):  Easy come, easy go. What started out as a promising week ended with a steep, one-day reversal that left the dollar little changed from the previous week's lows. Still worse is that the apex of the rally failed to generate an impulse leg on the hourly chart by surpassing an external' peak at 110.58 recorded May 19 on the way down.

When the white-shoed crime syndicate that controls this stock goosed it for a quick 30-point gain on May 1, they probably didn't expect to get as much additional mileage as the stock has delivered since. It now looks like a shoo-in to achieve thee 488.75 target shown. That as much as ensures that the bull market has a ways to run, since the Nasdaq is tethered to MSFT now that it has become a relative-strength engine once again.  If the stock should relapse  to p=416,.77, however unlikely, that would trigger a very enticing mechanical buy, stop 392.77.

Gold's bounce from a deep hole last Thursday did not quite live up to our expectations, so the outlook is bearish for the near term. More oomph would have pushed the June futures above an external peak at 3270.40 recorded on May 13, but the buying sputtered out well below, at 3208.70. The implication is that if the bounce from Friday's low hits the green line (x=3219.20) it would trigger a 'mechanical' short, stop 2355.90. The trade would be predicated on a target at 3109.40, a good place to bottom-fish aggressively if the opportunity should arise. _______ UPDATE (May 20, 9:20): When a picture-perfect trading opportunity like the short trade recommended above doesn't produce an easy profit, it's safe to conclude that the trend you've bet on is about to reverse. This one did, although not quite with a vengeance, only a sissy punch below the belt. The rally is bound for a minimum 3360.50, a Hidden Pivot that should show potentially tradable stopping power. If bulls can punch through it, expect a test of the 3448.20 high recorded on May 6.