Webinar

So why did we remain steadfastly bullish on gold in the wake of this week’s $25 selloff? Because June Gold torpedoed a ‘D’ rally target just before the selloff, is why. In today’s presentation, we took the time to rediscover the subtle analytical strength of the Hidden Pivot Method. Said strength lies, not in the ability to predict swing highs and lows with two-decimal accuracy, which we do often enough, but to correctly forecast the trend even when it seems to defy every shred of logic in one’s brain. To conclude the session, looking at July Corn, we predicted doom for bulls on the basis of a price gap through a minor midpoint support.

Gold was as strong as we’ve seen it in a while, up nearly $18 on the day and trading just above an 1148.00 rally target we’d used as a minimum upside projection. Our focus was not so much on marquee numbers and drum-roll targets, however, but on certain analytical details that can tell us whether the underlying trend is healthy. The answer was an unqualified yes in bullion, although, as we saw, not in such commodity staples as corn and wheat. Crude’s surge shows no signs of relenting, and so we should expect to see prices top $100 in this cycle.

We took the time to examine Apple’s charts closely, since a potentially tradable opportunity in the stock was featured in the day’s touts. As it happened, the trade triggered, albeit not in the way we’d expected. We also took a look at May Corn, which had just penetrated a key support. Although the breach was slight, it was deemed sufficient to imply that a breakdown as large as 20 percent lies ahead. Copper’s chart showed no such weakness, suggesting that it is mainly agricultural commodities that are headed for a fall.

We caught a slice of hell during this session, since an E-Mini short that had been recommended as a tout was in the process of getting stopped out just above our entry price. Segueing to a Dow chart, we were able to see why no bear in his right mind can afford to be short the broad averages right now, other than for purposes of day- or swing-trading. Poring over some Comex Gold charts, we found signs of underlying strength, though no compelling reason for being wildly bullish.

We happened to be looking at gold and silver charts at precisely the same time DaBoyz decided to shake them down. Ironically, this proved educational mainly because the nasty price action left the larger, bullish picture in bullion undisturbed. We discussed camouflage entry strategies predicated on recovery rallies that were still speculative at the time of this lesson. We also delved into some of the technical reasons why the bear rally in the broad averages appears to be unstoppable, at least for the moment.

Subtleties abound in this presentation, including a discussion of some of the more subjective distinctions between “internal” and “external” peaks. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the difference, but if you view this recording the task will probably become easier. We looked at Gold, Crude and the E-Mini S&P, and subsequent price action in each bore out our analysis. The lesson ended with scrutiny of HUI’s longer-term charts, which suggest that bulls may need to be very patient, perhaps for yet more months.

An exceedingly boring market led us to a fruitless search for trading opportunities in Comex Gold and the E-Mini S&Ps. The session had educational benefits nonetheless, since it shed light on the extremes to which we will sometimes go in order to force a trade. In this case, it got us stopped out of the E-Minis for pocket change. We learned once again that our expectations for a camouflage trade can be no better than what is promised by whatever pattern of larger degree subsumes it.

This session provides a birds-eye view of a bull trade that we initiated in April Gold. Using the midpoint support of a minor downtrend to go bottom-fishing, we got long as the futures turned precisely from the pivot. Although the subsequent rally was a dud, we were able to see it coming by focusing on the tick chart. As a result, we were able to exit the position with a small profit just in time to see the futures break down and head lower. This recording ranks among the best in the archive for purposes of examining the logic of a trade in real time.

There are times when the big picture argues against looking for a clever entry strategy, and this was one of them. Although Gold was bearish on the daily and hourly charts, its downward progress was labored, making a short unpromising. But there was no conviction behind the rallies either, and so we concluded there was nothing to do. The same was true for the E-Mini S&P: the hourly chart had a bullish bias and downward corrections were unconvincing, but there was not enough energy behind the rallies to suggest they would go anywhere. Thus did we learn that an important strength of the Hidden Pivot Method is its ability to tell us when not to trade.