It has taken the stock two weeks to return to lows where we cashed out of puts for as much as a hundred times what we'd paid for them a week earlier. The trade came off an appealing 'mechanical' sell signal generated by the pattern shown, and there is no reason why this pattern cannot continue to work for us. For starters, that means we can expect more slippage to at least p2=159.95 once the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 172.24 gives way. This looks unavoidable, although I don't expect the dirtballs who manipulate AAPL for a living to go quietly into the night. The 164.90 downside target given here earlier remains viable and can be bottom-fished with a reverse pattern trigger interval of 4.50 points. Ask for guidance in the chat room when appropriate if you're unsure about how to whittle this down to a reasonable number.
AAPL's big bounce in August may have added tens of billions of dollars to the macro ledger for a short while, but September's symmetrical decline has taken it all back. The stock still appears bound for D=164.90 of the pattern shown, equating to a 17% decline from the 198.23 high recorded in early July. Since Apple shares have been an infallible bellwether for the stock market as a whole, we'll want to pay close attention to price action when 164.90 is hit, which it eventually will be. If the Hidden Pivot support is decisively exceeded, it would imply more downside is possible to as low as 146.25, a Hidden Pivot support derived from shifting 'A' up to last August's 176.15 peak.
Bulls appeared tapped out as the week ended, unable to fill the gap formed by Thursday's air pocket. To make matters worse, the stock settled just beneath the lower end of the gap range, implying the DaBoyz couldn't even mau-mau shorts into displaying a little fear. This will be problematic when index futures begin to trade Sunday evening, since the broad averages weren't exactly looking frisky either. Expect more slippage to the 164.90 target of the reverse pattern shown. Getting short is certain to be tricky, since everyone else will be trying to do it too.
Officially we are short from near 189.90 via the purchase of four Sep 8 180 puts for 0.12. This is a 'mechanical' trade, and although the green line (x=189.90) is neither a target nor a resistance, it is where most trades of this kind are signaled. The fact that the rally topped two cents from the target is mere coincidence, even if it may have felt like we got the trade exactly right. If time erodes our puts to the vanishing point by mid-week, we may try again. Regardless, you should be offering half of the puts to close for twice what you paid for them. _______ UPDATE (Sep 6, 2:40 p.m.): Today's so-far quadrupling-or-better of AAPL 180 puts extends a Rick's Picks winning streak that stretches back beyond memory for option trades posted either as touts or as spontaneous 'berries' in the chat room. Anyone who bought the puts for 0.09 to 0.12 on last week's guidance should be out of half to three quarters of the position by now. Save a few for Friday, since the explosion of these still-out-of-the-money options has spooked the clowns who are short them. Even if they did so as part of a hedge, they would still be in trouble due to the deadly negative-gamma exposure of options that only yesterday were $10 out of the money. Here's the chart, so lovely and gratifying. _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 2:16 p.m.): Nailing the 189.90 top of AAPL's hellish plunge within two pennies, and timing it nearly perfectly, produced quick gains of as much as 10,000 percent on puts that could have been acquired for as little as 0.06 just a couple of days ago. They traded as high as $6.60 today in panic selling that deepened the already-punitive losses from a day earlier. Many subscribers apparently
I've shrunk the picture somewhat with a truncated a-b leg that projects a tradeable low at 164.90, well above the 146.25 target presented here last week. However, if AAPL should eventually relapse and close below last week's 171.96 low for two consecutive days, it would shorten the odds that the more bearish target will be reached. In the meantime, the best opportunity I could foresee for the next two weeks would be 'mechanically' shorting a run-up to x=189.90. Otherwise, AAPL still looks like a good bet to fall to at least 164.90 eventually, so our mid-term trading bias should remain bearish.
Expect AAPL's correction to continue down to the red line at 172.24, at least. That's a major Hidden Pivot support of weekly-chart degree. If and when it is reached, the correction from July's all-time high at 198.23 would be about 13%%. Earlier, I predicted that pullbacks in this stock and some others in the institutionally beloved 'lunatic sector' would ultimately reach their respective 'D' targets roughly 27% below. I'm holding to that prediction for now but it could change depending on how bulls and bears fare when they duke it out at p=172.24. And they will. Bottom-fishing there can be attempted using a reverse pattern with a trigger interval of 2.90. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care, since I may be able to hone this guidance in real time as the stock gets closer. My confidence in the pattern to deliver everything we require is high. ______ UPDATE (Aug 18): A two-day selloff brought AAPL down to within an inch of the 172.24 target billboarded above. The subsequent, strong bounce hit 175.10, triggering the trade I'd recommended at 174.86. If you bought stock or used options to get aboard, please let me know so that I can determine whether to establish a tracking position. I don't expect the rally to get very far, so tight risk management could be crucial to booking a profit. _______ UPDATE (Aug 22, 5:56 p.m.): AAPL swam against the tide today, but I doubt the stock can keep it up for long. That's why I suggested covering at least half of any long positions held from 174.86. One subscriber reported booking a $2,600 profit on exiting his entire position, and so I will end my guidance here unless there are additional reports. A run-up to x=185.24 would tempt us with a juicy 'mechanical'
It's refreshing to see AAPL get the crap kicked out of it for a rare change. And there's more to come! But don't think that the chimps that this buy-and-hold no-brainer has made look like geniuses are not salivating over the prospect of accumulating more shares at 'bargain' prices, and of running the stock back up again without expending much effort or capital. Gap openings induced by short-covering will make that possible, just as they have since early in 2020. We can attempt to bottom-fish, but not before the correction comes down to at least p=172.24, the Hidden Pivot midpoint support of the reverse pattern shown in the chart. This implies the broad averages have further to fall as well. If the stock ultimately plummet to d=146.25, that would represent a 26% correction off the all-time high -- a mini-bear market within a longer-term bull that projects as high as 253.96. _______ UPDATE (Aug 7, 9:54 p.m.): Are DaBoyz awesome, or what?? They don't call them the Masters of the Universe for nothing. It seems They have finally figured out how to harness AAPL's lunatic energy on the way up while cutting it loose when it falls. If you'd told me that a $3 trillion stock was about to plummet by 10% in just a few days as the broad averages sad idly by, twiddling their so-to-speak thumbs, I'd have said "No way!" And yet...
The Svengalis who control the stock failed on Friday to gap it above any previous peaks on the hourly chart, so I've hoisted the yellow flag. It is unusual for them to miss in this way, but we should never count them out, since they have mastered the trick of pushing the world's biggest-cap stock sharply higher on little more than hot air. It would take a fall all the way down to 189.63 to generate a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart, but until such time as that happens there is little justification for having a strong bias in either direction. ______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 9:28 p.m.): Earnings out after the close were strong, but it was the punk outlook that caused a perverse leap to as high as 196. It is the after-hours low at 185.00, however, that will likely set the tone for the week ahead.
The steep rally begun in January has barely paused for breath, so relentless that it could properly be described as a manifestation of mass psychosis. And here's the thing: This the largest-cap stock in the world, with a $3 trillion valuation, so every ratcheting, short-squeeze rally adds tens of billions in 'wealth' to the world's macro ledger. It can't end well, since, in a recession, Apple's pricey iPhone will be near the top of the list of things that consumers stop buying. In the meantime, we can only watch in amazement as the stock continues to ascend toward the 253.96 target pictured in this chart. Please note that with just a little more upside above the 198.23 high, the stock would become a screaming 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x=156.52. AAPL is egregiously overdue for a very nasty selloff, but we'll need to see corrective 'd' targets on the lesser charts start to be exceeded routinely before we infer the retracement is under way. _______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 7:25 p.m.): The yellow flag is out, since today's by-now-obligatory gap-up opening failed to surpass last week's high. The subsequent dive, trapping bulls and bear alike, created an impulse leg, but let's see if bears can improve on it into week's end, turning it into the start of something big.
We'll give this correction plenty of room, since the steepness of Apple's melt-up since March has been the equivalent of running three sub-two-hour marathons. The stock is badly in need of rest, so let's be prepared to exploit it. A moderate decline of arobull trapund $8 would create the first bearish impulse leg we've seen on the daily chart since last December. The low of that move gave way to the current, massive rally, and we might expect the same outcome when this pullback ends, since bulls demolished a key resistance at 189.07 before it began. _______ UPDATE (Jul 17, 11:53 p.m.): AAPL went sharply the 'wrong' way, propelled by yet another deftly engineered gap-up leap on the opening. Assuming the stock can get past a midpoint resistance at 194.24, it is headed for a potentially shortable peak at exactly 196.07 (5-min, A=189.85 on 7/14). If this happens before noon Wednesday, you can speculate with puts under 0.65 that expire this Friday. _______ UPDATE (Jul 18, 5:54 p.m.): Using the same pattern, you can also get long 'mechanically' by buying cheap call options (0.60 or less in this context) expiring this Friday or next if AAPL pulls back to the green line (x=193.32). _______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 11:32 p.m.): Subscribers jumped on the mechanical trade suggested above just before AAPL took a psychotic leap from the green line (x=193.32). This caused soon-to-expire 195 calls that I'd suggested buying for 0.40 to leap to an intraday high of 3.85, a nearly 1000% gain, in just 12 minutes. One subscriber who bought 50 of the calls for 0.51 reported selling them minutes later for 3.40, realizing a nearly instantaneous profit of $14,450. I didn't notice this until later, but the high of AAPL's nutty, pointless spike could have been predicted within four cents using
