It's refreshing to see AAPL get the crap kicked out of it for a rare change. And there's more to come! But don't think that the chimps that this buy-and-hold no-brainer has made look like geniuses are not salivating over the prospect of accumulating more shares at 'bargain' prices, and of running the stock back up again without expending much effort or capital. Gap openings induced by short-covering will make that possible, just as they have since early in 2020. We can attempt to bottom-fish, but not before the correction comes down to at least p=172.24, the Hidden Pivot midpoint support of the reverse pattern shown in the chart. This implies the broad averages have further to fall as well. If the stock ultimately plummet to d=146.25, that would represent a 26% correction off the all-time high -- a mini-bear market within a longer-term bull that projects as high as 253.96. _______ UPDATE (Aug 7, 9:54 p.m.): Are DaBoyz awesome, or what?? They don't call them the Masters of the Universe for nothing. It seems They have finally figured out how to harness AAPL's lunatic energy on the way up while cutting it loose when it falls. If you'd told me that a $3 trillion stock was about to plummet by 10% in just a few days as the broad averages sad idly by, twiddling their so-to-speak thumbs, I'd have said "No way!" And yet...
The Svengalis who control the stock failed on Friday to gap it above any previous peaks on the hourly chart, so I've hoisted the yellow flag. It is unusual for them to miss in this way, but we should never count them out, since they have mastered the trick of pushing the world's biggest-cap stock sharply higher on little more than hot air. It would take a fall all the way down to 189.63 to generate a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart, but until such time as that happens there is little justification for having a strong bias in either direction. ______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 9:28 p.m.): Earnings out after the close were strong, but it was the punk outlook that caused a perverse leap to as high as 196. It is the after-hours low at 185.00, however, that will likely set the tone for the week ahead.
The steep rally begun in January has barely paused for breath, so relentless that it could properly be described as a manifestation of mass psychosis. And here's the thing: This the largest-cap stock in the world, with a $3 trillion valuation, so every ratcheting, short-squeeze rally adds tens of billions in 'wealth' to the world's macro ledger. It can't end well, since, in a recession, Apple's pricey iPhone will be near the top of the list of things that consumers stop buying. In the meantime, we can only watch in amazement as the stock continues to ascend toward the 253.96 target pictured in this chart. Please note that with just a little more upside above the 198.23 high, the stock would become a screaming 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x=156.52. AAPL is egregiously overdue for a very nasty selloff, but we'll need to see corrective 'd' targets on the lesser charts start to be exceeded routinely before we infer the retracement is under way. _______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 7:25 p.m.): The yellow flag is out, since today's by-now-obligatory gap-up opening failed to surpass last week's high. The subsequent dive, trapping bulls and bear alike, created an impulse leg, but let's see if bears can improve on it into week's end, turning it into the start of something big.
We'll give this correction plenty of room, since the steepness of Apple's melt-up since March has been the equivalent of running three sub-two-hour marathons. The stock is badly in need of rest, so let's be prepared to exploit it. A moderate decline of arobull trapund $8 would create the first bearish impulse leg we've seen on the daily chart since last December. The low of that move gave way to the current, massive rally, and we might expect the same outcome when this pullback ends, since bulls demolished a key resistance at 189.07 before it began. _______ UPDATE (Jul 17, 11:53 p.m.): AAPL went sharply the 'wrong' way, propelled by yet another deftly engineered gap-up leap on the opening. Assuming the stock can get past a midpoint resistance at 194.24, it is headed for a potentially shortable peak at exactly 196.07 (5-min, A=189.85 on 7/14). If this happens before noon Wednesday, you can speculate with puts under 0.65 that expire this Friday. _______ UPDATE (Jul 18, 5:54 p.m.): Using the same pattern, you can also get long 'mechanically' by buying cheap call options (0.60 or less in this context) expiring this Friday or next if AAPL pulls back to the green line (x=193.32). _______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 11:32 p.m.): Subscribers jumped on the mechanical trade suggested above just before AAPL took a psychotic leap from the green line (x=193.32). This caused soon-to-expire 195 calls that I'd suggested buying for 0.40 to leap to an intraday high of 3.85, a nearly 1000% gain, in just 12 minutes. One subscriber who bought 50 of the calls for 0.51 reported selling them minutes later for 3.40, realizing a nearly instantaneous profit of $14,450. I didn't notice this until later, but the high of AAPL's nutty, pointless spike could have been predicted within four cents using
Permabears should curb their hopes, since AAPL's upward stab through p=189.07, although still tentative, was unambiguously bullish. It is also bullish that the stock has closed for two consecutive weeks above this crucial resistance. The extent of any correction remains to be seen, but a particularly brutal selloff down to the green line (x=156.62) would create a back-up-the-truck buying opportunity. Assuming the stock doesn't leap from the starting gate on Monday and run away this week, my gut feeling is that it could spend much of the summer pussyfooting near the red line (p=189.07). We can focus on short-term option strategies in the meantime, since even minor, meaningless swings hold opportunity if we get the timing of them precisely right. We still hold a few 14 July 180 puts with a cost basis of around 0.50. They are a distant longshot at this point, but you should nonetheless be offering half of them for 1.00, g-t-c.
Buyers drove AAPL through a long-term midpoint resistance at 189.07 with such force last week that there can be little doubt they are capable of achieving the 253.96 'D' target of the pattern shown. Like most powerful rallies in this stock and other lunatic-sector faves, this one achieved most of the gains on gaseous volume and without requiring a large infusion of fresh cash. That's because the thimble-riggers who control the stock allowed it to waft higher overnight, creating a short-covering gap of nearly $3 at the opening bell. An unexpected swoon to x=156.62 would trigger a juicy 'mechanical' buy, but that's why we shouldn't count on it. ______ UPDATE (July 5, 7:21 p.m.): So far, AAPL is just filling a gap from last Friday. However, a print below 189.11 would generate a minor impulse leg on the hourly chart that we should take note of.
Once again, we look for AAPL to tell us what the stock market might do next. The chart shows last week's high to have occurred just a hair from a key long-term resistance at 189.07, a Hidden Pivot midpoint associated with an ambitious bull-market target at 253.96. The actual high so far has been 187.56, fully $1.50 shy of the midpoint. That's not quite close enough to warrant buying put options, but it would be no stretch to infer that an important top was made there last week. We'll know soon, especially if the stock's corrections on the lesser intraday charts begin to exceed their p or D supports. _______ UPDATE Jun 26, 11:57 p.m.): This morning's head-fake sevened out $1 shy of the target, possibly because the pattern was obvious enough to attract the attention of riff-raff and mouth-breathers. It could be just organic weakness, though, so be prepared for the so-far modest retracement to pick up tempo. ______ UPDATE (June 27, 9:35 p.m.): With the stock trading just a hair beneath the 189.07 target noted above, subscribers bought July 180 puts expiring 7/14 for 0.50, pennies off the intraday low. Sit tight for now.
AAPL appears very likely to achieve the 191.73 target shown in the chart (inset), since the stock has spent two weeks above the Hidden Pivot midpoint (p=184.53) after impaling it on June 15 with an opening-bar gap. A swooning retracement to the green line (x=180.92) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy that you should not pass up if you trade the stock. Nudge me in the chat room when appropriate and I may be able to craft a risk-averse trigger for playing the bounce with call options.
The extravagant, 253.96 target clearly visible in the weekly chart (inset) corresponds to one that I've proffered this week for the E-Mini S&Ps. First things first, though, since AAPL will need to demolish p=189.07 to be rated an odds-on bet to achieve so ambitious a 'D' objective. As an added precaution, and to deny Mr. Market even a small chance of fooling us, we should keep in mind this less ambitious chart, with a 204.01 target extrapolated from a lesser point 'A' low drawn. We need consider this number only if and when 189.07 is exceeded. The chart also allows for the possibility of a correction off last week's high -- or conceivably even the start of a bear market, since a stall has occurred at the secondary pivot (p2), a notoriously difficult impediment for bulls.
The post-covid bull market begun in the final quarter of 2020 is running out of room, at least on the daily chart. The 184.86 target shown, a Hidden Pivot resistance, is not the highest that can be projected, but it still looks capable of restraining the charge, if only for a short while. Sliding 'A' down to the 118.70 low recorded on March 4, 2021, produces an alternative high at 190.90, but we'll wait to see how buyers handle D=184.86 before we raise our sights. To stretch your bullish imagination, but also to be on record with a seemingly outrageous forecast, let me introduce a 253.96 target with this weekly graph. We'll be better able to make book if the stock exceeds 184.96 and stalls at the 189.07 midpoint. That would make 253.96 more plausible as an objective, especially if AAPL stabs through p=189.07 and closes above it the same week. ______ UPDATE (Jun 5, 2:35 p.m.): AAPL has plummeted from a spike high at 184.95 that missed my target (boldfaced above in green) by nine cents. Because the stock is the most important stock-market bellwether of them all -- "the only stock that matters" -- we should be alert to the possibility that the broad averages have put in a major top today. Addendum, 6:49 p.m.: I doubt it, especially since the selling was triggered by 'news' that was bound to affect mainly rubes, yokels, and riff-raff who trade the stock, but that's no reason to take our eyes off a chart that is incapable of lying or even misleading._______ UPDATE (Jun 7, 5:52 p.m.): Monday's spike on 'goggle news' has left AAPL top-heavy. This chart suggests the stock will need to come down into the range 170-175 range to consolidate for the next thrust toward $200.
