Apple Computer

Last week's waft maxed out the pattern shown, nearly touching a potentially important D target at 176.52. The actual high at 176.39 fell just 13 cents shy. We bought some 2 June 165 puts at or very near the low of the day just in case, but don't get your hopes too high. Because the pattern has taken more than four months to play out, we might expect a pullback of at least a few weeks' duration to give buyers a rest. However, they will be tempted in any event to push past the resistance in order to to take on three formidable 'external' peaks recorded, respectively, at 176.15, 179.81, and 182.94, the all-time high notched in January 2022. Anything above that would still beckon caution, since there is a Hidden Pivot resistance to overcome at 184.96 with some stopping power. What a head-fake that would be!  The stock will be easily shortable if it moves into the midst of the prior peaks listed above. Since subscribers seem not to trade the stock, you'll need to nudge me in the chat room for timely guidance. Meanwhile, offer half of the puts to close for twice what you paid for them. ______ |UPDATE (May 23, 6:28 p.m.): The puts doubled to 0.57 today as the stock's downtrend lengthened, so you should have cashed out half of the position to leave you with no skin in the game. There was a raucous cavalcade of buyers in the chat room on Friday when the 0.28 bid I'd advised caught the lowest price ever paid for the 2 June 165 puts. Today, however, only one subscriber seemed to have noticed that the puts were on the move. I suggested keeping 25% of the position for a bigger win than you might currently imagine is

AAPL is a major contributor to the doomed 'wealth effect' that has kept the world from falling into a deflationary abyss since the covid hoax. Friday's wilding spree was a classic example, since the stock's gap-up opening generated around $70 billion of gaseous 'wealth'  the instant the regular session began. It seems  ridiculous with the U.S. facing a real estate collapse later this year or early next, but the chart of the world's most valuable stock has been pointing to at least 177.11 since early March. AAPL was trading 30 points lower at the time, a fire-sale bargain as far as the Big Boys were concerned. Its relentless rise  since, along with that of Chipotle, implies that a bear market is not coming any time soon. Moreover, Chipotle's rally target at 2739, 700 points above where it is currently trading, suggests it and AAPL will continue to tag-team higher after the latter finishes consolidating for its impending thrust to 177.11. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 11:36 a.m.): I just now realized that if a very subtle one-off A is used to project a top for AAPL, today's high at 176.39 came within 13 cents of fulfilling it. The 177.11 target we've been using all along represented a theoretical maximum for the move, but the stock could still fall 72 cents shy of it if it fulfills the one-off target at 176.52. I prefer to get it very exactly right on option trades, but it would be a shame to miss out on putties for want of another 72 cents of upside on a move that has taken months to play out. Here's the chart, but I will take a look at put prices and see if there is something appealing that I can recommend. (Check the chat room for my recommendation).

AAPL should be able to reach the 177.11 rally target easily, although that would imply a dearth of opportunities to get long 'mechanically' on a swoon. This is one instance where a 'mechanical' buy at the 160.51 red line (i.e., the midpoint Hidden Pivot) would be justified. Your bid there should be stopped at 154.87, yielding a risk/reward of 1:3 on entry that is predicated on exiting a long position at the 177.111 target. In this week's commentary, I have shifted my focus to Chipotle (CMG) as a stock market bellwether. AAPL still holds primacy for this purpose, but Chipotle recently signaled the very strong likelihood of a further, 35% move to as high as 2739. If so, the patience of permabears is likely to be tested beyond all endurance. Their capitulation would correspond to a blowoff top. It would appear that the Second Great Depression that is coming with the next bear market is about to be postponed yet again. That would be a small miracle, considering that an epic collapse in residential and commercial real estate is baked in the cake for 2024.

Our #1 bellwether spent the week screwing the pooch. Accordingly, I've adjusted our focus downward somewhat from the 176.52 rally target given here earlier. That is the D target of a much larger pattern. The less ambitious price objective is 170.57, and you should be prepared for a possible swoon to x=162.48, since that would trigger an enticing 'mechanical' buy. In the meantime, if you bought puts at the recent top that I'd signaled, you should cash out 25%-50% of your position. Swinging for the fences with put options hasn't been a very good strategy in 2023. _______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 10:58 p.m.): The criminally engineered opening bar bottomed at 162.80, a hair above the 162.48 price I'd said would trigger a 'mechanical' buy.  Anyone still holding puts?  If so, please announce yourself in the chat room.

AAPL's ascent toward a longstanding target at 176.52 has been untroubled, with no swoons ugly enough to enable a 'mechanical' buy on the way up.  Nor has the rally been steep enough to make owning call options profitable. Selling them short has been the ticket, and that's probably one reason the stock's handlers have been content to get where they're going slowly but surely. This is going to be little help to us, although there may be opportunities to place jackpot bets with options that sometimes get underpriced.  Stay tuned if you care. ______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 2:14 p.m.): The stock is closing on double resistance that could be shortable. See the chat room discussion for further details. ______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 11:22 p.m.); The intraday short-squeezes and gap-up opening bars have turned so ferocious lately that you just know DaBoyz are trying to Mau-Mau bears before turning out the lights. Hang onto those puts!

A usually astute correspondent thinks my 176.52 rally projection is unlikely to be realized. We want to get this one right, since, if AAPL fails to achieve 'D', it means the bear market that went into hibernation in October is about to resume.  I still think the odds favor the completion of the bullish pattern, but there are two caveats. First, the impulse leg is illegitimate and therefore unreliable, since its 'B' high failed to surpass the 157.50 peak recorded just before Halloween; and second, there is daunting resistance just above in the form of a trendline and secondary pivot (p2=168.37) that closely coincide. A bullish offset is that last week's high at 166.84 exceeded both an internal and an external peak, generating a strong impulse leg of minor degree. In sum, the picture is quite mixed, and determining trend strength will therefore require close attention to price action at corrective Hidden Pivots p and D. Stay tuned!

Bellwether AAPL, as well as the broad averages, are likely headed significantly higher as the bear market rally begun in October continues to challenge the endurance of pessimists. Accordingly, to project a new target at 176.52, I've relocated the point 'A' low of the pattern we've been using at a one-off low recorded in January. The stock will need to punch through p=160.21 more persuasively before we raise the likelihood of D's attainment to near-certitude, but for now you can use a swoon to x=152.08, however unlikely, as a juicy opportunity to get long 'mechanically'.

AAPL has taken many a fall from these level since September, and so a breakout above the 158.74 peak circled in the chart would generate a strong impulse leg. Some will also see a bullish, inverted H&S pattern, which in this case is compelling enough to overcome my usual skepticism toward such formations. Immediate upside potential on a breakout would be to the 161.07 D target of this pattern, or 163.58 if any higher. That last number is derived from a lower 'A' at 138.81 recorded on Jan 25. _____ UPDATE (Mar 23, 4:32 p.m.): Today's wild swings effectively fulfilled the 162.47 rally target shown.  The target is a correction of one at 163.58 given here earlier that was based on an erroneous coordinate.  I doubt that AAPL's handlers are done short-squeezing the stock skyward vaporous volume, but they definitely hit real supply at the Hidden Pivot that will require some rest. Use a 167.42 target for the next big upthrust. It was calculated by simply sliding 'A' down to Jan 19's 133.77 low.

I could just as easily have supplied a big, bearish pattern peak to begin the week, but I settled on a more modest discouragement, since AAPL seems reluctant to fall apart. Still, rallies have been routinely failing to exceed prior peaks, and that's reason enough to favor the bearish (i.e., corrective) case for now. The graph shows the stock to have triggered a 'mechanical' short last Monday with a heavily engineered lunatic leap that would have added nearly $100 billion to the U.S. economy in mere minutes. The subsequent relapse 'should' be able to hit p=146.23, but it's not predictable at the moment whether further weakness will be sufficient to crush it. If AAPL's canny sponsors seize the upper hand and run the stock up the old wazoo, look for yet another fraudulent but potent rally to 159.96 (180-min, A=.141.32 on 2/1). Otherwise, the 135.07 target shown will remain viable as a downside objective. _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 9:03 a.m.): The smash low of AAPL's $4.70 reversal from an overnight peak has bounced from within a nickel of the 146.23 Hidden Pivot noted above. [This occurred an hour before the regular session opened.] The stock has been there before, setting up a 'mechanical' short at the green line that would have required taking a partial profit (at p) this morning. Let's see if the low holds. If not, p2=140.65 would be in play as a minimum downside objective. ______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 11:23 p.m.): The stock appear bound for 160.09, the Hidden Pivot 'D' target shown in this chart.