Apple Computer

Our infallible stock-market bellwether remains mired in a bear market that could have years to run, but that doesn't necessarily mean a a collapse below $100 is imminent. A less serious fall to 135.95 would trigger a fetching 'mechanical' buy, actually, with a potential ride up to as high as D=171.28.  We'd likely take the money and run with AAPL trading well shy of that, since bear-market rallies are not supposed to reach their d targets. If there is anything in the chart that might give bears a ray of hope, it is the narrow failure of the short-squeeze begun from 124 to exceed October's 'external' peak at 157.  AAPL's institutional sponsors may be thieves, deceivers, cheats and bullies, but it turns out they are also too lacking in guts and conviction to fool this chart into turning very bullish. ______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 9:51 p.m.) The 135.95 'mechanical'-trade level mentioned above is looking increasingly likely to see action. Although that would imply a brutal plunge lies ahead, bear in mind that when the stock gets there and it seems like the end of the world, it will actually be an attractive BUYING opportunity.

Our focus for some time has been on the upper trendline of a channel that dates back to the fourth quarter of 2021. It will come in around 167 this week, and that's why I've focused on a smaller chart whose 'D' target at 165.28 would nearly fulfill the longer-term objective. First things first, though. Last week's downturn from just shy of the 157.25 midpoint Hidden Pivot was not a bullish sign, but because sellers looked almost as feeble, we'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt as the new week begins. Stay tuned to the chat room  or switch on your 'Email Notifications' if you're keen on catching a ride. ______ UPDATE (Feb 22, 9:55 p.m.): And down we go, impulsively so on the hourly chart. It remains bullish enough nonetheless to support a push to as high as 163.24 (A= 141.32 on 2/1) over the next 5-7 days.

AAPL appears hellbent on reaching the top of a channel that has contained its huge ups and downs for more than a year. If the stock gets there within the next two weeks, the line's presumptive stopping power would be felt at around 168. It's reasonable to ask whether the rally is capable of reaching the line, but any progress above it would seem as unlikely as the emergence of a booming global economy from a debt contraction that has only recently begun. We shouldn't assume that this is impossible, but neither should we pass up the several opportunities to get short nearly risklessly that would occur as the stock ascends toward the channel line. _____ UPDATE (Feb 15, 8:30 p.m.): Here's a speculation for Thursday if you've got money burning a hole in your pocket: Buy two expiring AAPL 155 puts if the stock touches 156.30 before 11:00 a.m. ET.  I estimate they'll be trading for around 0.73. Stop yourself out if AAPL exceeds 157.38. ______ UPDATE (Feb 16, 8:51 p.m.): The stock touched 156.33 and then crashed, sending Feb 155 puts that could have been bought for as little as 0.53 to 1.90 in less than two hours. All of this happened after 2:20 p.m., when, as I'd anticipated, I was too busy to provide timely guidance. That's why I suggested an 11:00 a.m. cutoff for the trade. Fortunately, some subscribers who ignored the clock and acted on my recommendation (see above) above were rewarded with windfall profits by day's end. Here's a graph of AAPL's delightful plunge -- doubtless a surprise to everyone but us.

We had AAPL's number on Friday, allowing all you option junkies to get short with puts just a hair off the top. Don't count your chickens, though, even if a nimble subscriber reported a quick, $600 profit in the final minutes. The finale featured a panic-induced short-squeeze to slightly above the day's previous peak, then a collapse cleverly timed so that it wouldn't have enough time to snowball and cause real damage. Here's what the end-of-day plunge looked like on the lesser charts: a mash-up of AAPL's weaselly sponsors and little guys who never give up on the challenge of beating them at their stupid, nasty little game.

Our bellwether of bellwethers, the only stock that matters, has ample headroom to generate plenty of bullish buzz en route to the trendline shown (inset). If it were to be hit within seven or so trading days, that would occur at around 144.28, give or take perhaps a dime. My gut says there is a better chance AAPL will fail to reach the line than overshoot it, but we'll suppress such thoughts and rely on price action alone to provide trading opportunities as they occur. Here's a perspective to make the task easier -- one that looks capable of yielding some juicy 'mechanical' buys if we should get a nasty pullback or two on the way up. ______ UPDATE (Jan 23, 8:51):  DaBoyz goosed AAPL into a spasm that nearly reached the trendline in mere hours, not the 5-7 days I'd estimated.  Let's try to get short near the trendline if the rally resumes: Today only, if the stock is trading for 144.10 or less, bid 0.45 for four 27 Jan 140 puts. You can take up to 0.04 discretion (i.e., pay up to 0.50) as long as your bid does not exceed the mid-price of the option's bid/asked. _______ UPDATE (Jan 24, 7:36 p.m.): Bid 0.32 for the puts today, day order, same conditions but with no discretion on price.  If you buy them, immediately offer half for 0.65, g-t-c. This is a longshot bet but hardly farfetched. _______ UPDATE (Jan 26, 1:11 p.m.): AAPL topped on an opening-bar short-squeeze a penny from the current target and three cents from the trendline I've been headlining for the last few weeks. The latter was an estimate, but the result was sharpened by two cents using the minor ABCD pattern shown here. I've been too busy to stay on top of the

AAPL's sucker rally has come from a technically inconvenient place somewhat above an authoritative trendline, but this only mildly diminishes the likelihood the stock will revisit the lows and test them unsuccessfully enough to reach the line.  In the meantime, though, we should be ready to exploit a rally to around 145, where a second trendline with presumptive stopping power comes in. More immediately, the hourly chart says full speed ahead to at least 136.77 (A=124.76 on Jan 5)   over the near term. You can short there with a vertical put spread expiring within 4-9 days, but check the chat room for more-specific guidance if the opportunity looks close. ______ UPDATE (January 17, 10:35 p.m. EST): Subscribers reported buying the Jan 20 132/130 put spread for around 0.20. For now, offer half of them for 0.45, good-till-canceled.

The futures spent Friday in a vicious short squeeze that itself would become short-able if it touches the green line (x=4014.00). I have my doubts the rally will get that far, but we need to take it slightly seriously anyway, since it generated an impulse leg of daily chart degree. The trade carries about $13,000 of theoretical entry risk, assuming a stop-loss at 4180.25 on four contracts. That means it should only be attempted with a 'camouflage' trigger. Prompt me in the chat room if ES gets there, and perhaps we will be able to improvise in real time. ______ UPDATE (Jan 12. 9:54 p.m. EST): The futures spent the entire session in full-nitwit mode, with wild swings greeting news of moderating inflation. Since no one on Earth has the foggiest idea what this means or how it might affect Fed policy, I'll avoid wasting energy pondering such questions and simply track the short trade as having filled at 4014, stop 4180.25. This will be a good test of  a 'mechanical' entries that came from an explicitly detailed recommendation. Since the trade caught a 66-point downdraft to 3954 after the futures topped at 4020, I'll treat the short as having been half-covered at a middling 3974. That leaves us with two contracts and a 4054 basis. Let me know in the chat room how you handled the trade, since that might allow me to tighten my guidance. For now, bid 3950 to cover a third contract, o-c-o with a stop-loss on both of the remaining contracts at 4022.

The chart uses a conventional pattern yielding a downside target at 120.82 that nearly matches an important one we derived earlier from a trendline. It will allow us to trade precise levels if the opportunity should arise. So far, though, even after Friday's sharp, go-along rally, AAPL still failed to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart. That would occur if buyers push this hoax above last Tuesday's 130.90 peak, but even then I wouldn't get too excited. A counterintuitive feature of this chart is that if the rally were to go ballistic, hitting x= 148.33, that would trigger a compelling 'mechanical' short. With close observation, though, we may be able to get short well beneath that level, presumably in a boring 'discomfort zone' where the rally seems fated to die.

A fall to at least 121.60 early in the new year still looks inevitable. That's not a Hidden Pivot target, but rather a closely measured approximation of where the trendline will be at the end of this week. We'll look to bottom-fish using a small-degree reverse pattern (rABC) when the stock gets there. However, given the compelling clarity of the channel lines, if the bounce were to peter out quickly, that would be ominous. Although my long-term forecast sees AAPL eventually falling to $50 or lower, I don't see this happening any time soon.