Apple Computer

In this week's Morning Line commentary, I explained why AAPL's dismal trajectory is about to worsen with a 10% plunge that will sink the stock market as well. More immediately, we are going to see a test of the 130.92 Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart (inset). There is additional, structural support from a key low at 129.69 recorded back in June, so don't expect the stock to break down straightaway. Like many stocks, AAPL is falling after having failed to achieve a clear rally target of daily chart degree. If this ostensible correction overshoots its 'd' target, that would affirm the likelihood that the bear market is back in force after hibernating since October. _______ UPDATE (Dec 21, 8:46 p.m.): My downside target at 130.92 caught the low of a so-far $7 bounce from 129.89. Let's see how well DaBoyz exploit this opportunity, which was ordained by cyclical forces beyond their (and our) understanding.  A small reverse pattern (a=140.00 on 12/7 'daily')  says AAPL will get to at least 139.85, and that a pullback to 132.37 could be bought 'mechanically' with a stop at 129.87. _______ UPDATE (Dec 22, 8:40 p.m.): See my 13:22 chat room post for an explicitly detailed bottom-fishing gambit using expiring at-the-money calls. If you have enabled 'Notifications' on your account dashboard, you would have received a timely email concerning this trade.

AAPL looked like hell last week, stopping out the point 'C' low of a weak bullish pattern, but making little headway on the obligatory bounce.  Desperation will not provide the distribution opportunities its handlers seek, but their one good trick  -- gapping the stock down on the opening in order to exhaust sellers -- hasn't been working lately because shorts are not as easily spooked.  Well below the pattern is a downward sloping, red line. It is the lower trendline of a channel I'd said could contain some big swings in 2023 without allowing a major breakdown or breakout. For your information, the upper channel-line will come in at around 172 this week, the lower at 121.  In theory, that would free the stock to swing wildly over a 51-point range as we enter the new year.

The bullish pattern shown, which projects an 8% rally to 159.36 over the near term, lacks only a fist-pump through the midpoint pivot at 149.86 to make the finishing stroke n odds-on bet. AAPL's timidity is understandable, since the stock hasn't been strong enough to lead the broad averages higher when they are tired.  That's because sales of pricey iPhones are facing simultaneous recessions in China, Europe and the U.S.  Even so, as my quite bullish outlook for the S&Ps implies, AAPL is headed higher come hell or high water. The pattern shown looks promising for risk-averse trading on the way up, particularly on a pullback to the green line from our sweet spot just above 152. ______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 4:51 p.m.): AAPL did in fact thrust above 149.86, albeit only fleetingly in a move criminally engineered by the Ivy-educated thugs who control the stock. The equally sharp pullback has so far missed touching the green line by 26 cents, but when this happens, the stock would become a 'mechanical' buy, stop 140.35. _______ UPDATE (Dec 6, 8:14 p.m.): The 'mechanical' trade triggered, then proceeded to go underwater for the rest of the session. The pattern was a good one to gamble on, but if it fails to make money, I'd have to conclude the stock is in more trouble than I'd imagined. It's going to be increasingly challenging for its handlers to distribute to suckers as recession begins to tighten on iPhone sales around the world.

You don't need to be chartist to see that Apple is not about to go quietly into the night. Since the beginning of the year, every worrisome selloff has been answered by a rally of nearly equal breadth. The stock's long list of sponsors includes virtually every giant investment fund on the planet, many of them sovereign funds with no foreseeable need for quick cash.  It is predictable that they will support the stock for as long as possible, presumably until they are overwhelmed by redemptions by individual investors grown mortally fearful of plummeting iPhone sales. That could only occur in the throes of a deep and prolonged global economic downturn, and even then over a months-long period of disillusionment.  Rather than proffer a chart for trading purposes this week, the inset shows a channel that could define the limits of the stock's ups and downs in 2023.  However, odds would tilt toward a breakout above the upper channel line if the current rally, begun from 134 two weeks ago, surpasses September 12's  164.26 high without correcting to the lower line that currently comes in at around $123.

AAPL's canny handlers squeezed the world's biggest-cap leviathan effortlessly higher last week, presumably adding many billions of dollars to the 'wealth effect' created by the stock market's so-far middling bear rally. The stock looked bound for a shortable, minor Hidden Pivot target at 151.26 (30-min, A= 134.59 on 11/9; B=143.70 on 11/10). However, it would take a print at 158.75 (see chart inset) to suggest this 10-percenter is destined for bigger things. That would exceed an important 'external' peak on the daily chart, generating the strongest impulse leg since late July.

As forecast, AAPL has plunged into the mid-$130s, The prediction was unrelated to Hidden Pivot targets, but rather to the likelihood that there will be many visually compelling stops along the way down to $50 or lower. That's where I see the stock headed, an outlook that I started drum-rolling months ago when the company bragged about how well sales were holding up. One of iPhone's key markets, Europe, was already in the throes of a slowdown that threatens to be far worse than a garden-variety recession. At the same time, China was starting to slip into an abyss of its own, with the U.S. economy presumably not far behind. Under the circumstances, the shares of Apple, whose revenues come mainly from sales of the relatively pricey iPhone, have nowhere to go but down. Considering the company's size, it is arguably the most vulnerable consumer goods company in the world with recession bearing down on us. From a technical standpoint, I expect the stock to bounce from one of my 'voodoo numbers' before falling to test last June's $129 low.  I'll say nothing more about this, however, unless there is very strong interest in the chat room. Let me remind you nevertheless: As AAPL goes, so goes the stock market. Get the stock exactly right and you will get the bear market exactly right. _______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 6:43 p.m.): Bears have been struggling to crush this once-might stock, which is still capable of intimidating with doomed rallies. A test of mid-June's low at 129.04 seems so obvious that I have not prepared a chart with Hidden Pivot levels to target the downtrend. Another reason is that the little p.o.s. has a habit of leaving sausage 'B' lows to terrorize and bamboozle erstwhile bottom-fishers. Such lows diminish the accuracy and

I've used a conventional ABC pattern to project a 158.43 rally target that looks all but certain to be achieved. Shorting there is another matter, however, since it coincides with a distinctive peak recorded on September 21 that will likely figure prominently in the plans of the algos and EDTP (electronic day-trading platform) whizzes we go up against every day. My preference would be to anchor the 'c' high of a reverse pattern three points above the target and to use a 14-cent trigger interval. This one's for subscribers who are comfortable with rABC trades. _______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 4:54 p.m.): AAPL has fallen hard after failing to reach my 158.43 target, let alone push above a key 'external' peak at 158.74 recorded on September 21. This is a telling sign of weakness to come and a reason to be cautious about buying into rallies. Expect this selloff to continue down in to the mid $130s.

I hope you'll pardon these two atrociously mixed metaphors, but separately they ring true, at least to me: AAPL, having lost one engine, has leveled off at cruising altitude and looks like it is fixing to screw the pooch indefinitely.  Ordinarily I would say that the weekly chart (see inset) reflects dithering uncertainty, except that the thieves who routinely and mechanistically rig AAPL's price action are never without intentions. Thus would it appear they are planning to hold the stock aloft for as long as possible, massaging it within the approximate range 120-175. Distribution will likely intensify above 160; accumulation, below 150. From a technical standpoint, the irresolute chart follows from the fact that neither the big move down in April-May, nor the steep rally in June-August, generated a true impulse leg on the weekly chart. To be more specific, the last-gasp low bar in mid-June did not exceed an additional 'external' low as required. This typically sets up duels between bulls and bears that can last for a long time. Keep in mind that AAPL remains a perfectly reliable bellwether for the stock market as a whole. The implication is that if my forecast is correct, we are about to experience an extended period of trendlessness. I'd thought the gratuitous swings to nowhere in both directions would persist only until the November elections, but I am now prepared to watch pointless price action continue more or less indefinitely. This would not likely happen if the Democrats were about to win, since that would leave the nation on a slick track to economic ruin and possibly civil war.  Judging from the chart, however, it looks like GOP candidates will prevail. Even though that could conceivably delay the financial implosion that is coming while also driving a stake through the heart

Last week's low just pennies beneath my 134.59 target would be an unlikely place for a good bottom, as a glance at the chart suggests. The stock will want to test the June low at 129.04 to bolster confidence for the next significant bear rally. We'll be on the alert to catch a ride north, but it's liable to take work and patience, since AAPL could noodle around down there for days or even weeks, stopping out bulls with so many false starts that they'll eventually give up. There's $9 of potential downside to exploit along the way, but that too will require close monitoring of the lesser charts. A 'voodoo' number at 131.41 looks promising for catching a tradeable bounce, so be ready when AAPL gets there. ______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 9:05 p.m.): AAPL's opportunistic leaps on the opening are by now so familiar that we should be shocked if DaBoyz ever attempt this money-saving trick with honest-to-goodness buying. Today's headbutting precisely at p=142.74 confirmed the pattern and its target, 147.19. Consider it a done deal if buyer's fist-pump their way past p, especially in the early going. An unexpected pullback to x=140.52, the green line, would trip an attractive 'mechanical' buy, stop 138.28. _______ UPDATE (Oct 18, 8:40 p.m.): The stock's handlers  let go of the leash, but it only seemed like they'd lost control. AAPL finished with a riskless/costless gain, leaving a classic 'mechanical' buy at the green line. I must confess that I was elsewhere at the time.