Crude Oil

A decline to a Hidden Pivot support at 83.58 over the next couple of days should be viewed as an opportunity to bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as 10 cents. Camouflage aficionados should look to get short ahead of the decline if the futures rally to 84.67, the c-d midpoint of the pattern associated with our bottoming target. _______ UPDATE (9:43 a.m. ET):  Both the short and the long would have worked beautifully, since the futures topped at 84.74 -- 7 cents from the midpoint support I'd flagged -- before heading into the tank.  Along the way, they took a 41-cent bounce off an interim low at 83.56 that lay just two ticks beneath the hidden support I'd flagged.  Now, like just about everything else that is traded on some exchange, they are falling anew -- bound, presumably, for an 82.47 HP support.  It too can be bottom-fished with an insanely tight stop-loss if yolu please.

The futures have already tripped a buy signal at 82.34 for a ride to as high as 89.82, but confirmation would come via a decisive breach of the Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 84.83.  Because this is three ticks above a visually obvious peak recorded on  October 14, I wouldn't advise buying the breakout, since too many others will be trying to do the same thing.  However, a less risky way to attempt getting on board would entail looking for camouflage just before the futures reach 84.83.  The three- or five-minute chart is where you should focus your attention, since that's where the easiest and most "exclusive" opportunity is likely to arise.

Crude oil is aiming for price targets in the upper part of its long trading range.  The price of crude oil for delivery this December has gained a whopping two dollars and ten cents in the last sixteen months.  In other words, early 2008 this isn't.  A reversal at the midpoint pivot shown on the chart would prevent the futures from surpassing an important prior high along the wall of the May 2010 crash.  It's not marked in the picture, but you'll see it.  Regarding said crash, we should note that the subsequent trading has not entirely neutralized it as the AB leg of a potential pattern.  But bulls can take comfort from the fact that three good-looking "C" points have already been cancelled, and we don't have a one-off "A".  Keep an eye on the 85.97 midpoint of our new bullish pattern, and on the prior high of 86.52.  A rally up to the "D" target of 90.96 would leave the May collapse in the dustbin of market history, and out of the Hidden Pivot Hall of Fame.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)