You can feel the ponderous weight of supply in the daily chart (see inset). Although the pattern lacks the symmetry of a textbook head-and-shoulders formation, there are enough similarities to infer that bulls are headed for a fall. Friday's nasty bounce, a short-squeeze assisted by an army of by-the-dip dipsticks, left bears bleeding on the ropes. But because they are still breathing, expect a buoyant opening Sunday followed by a mild upward drift. DaBoyz will extract as much mileage from this non-bullish buying to reach the green line, where a conventional 'buy' signal would trigger. It's hardly a stretch to think the squeeze could continue to p=6812.50, and so we shouldn't underestimate the ability of DaBoyz to do whatever it takes to make that happen. If they should succeed at the unthinkable and achieve new record highs, we will want to get short up there aggressively. _______ UPDATE (Nov 17, 10:08 p.m.): See my ES posts in the chat room today if you want a road map. The updates got everything just about right from bell to bell. I will be in there again on Tuesday, calling the turns and convinced that the Mother of All Bears has finally arrived. Before November is over, the 500-point drops in the Dow we've seen lately will turn out to have been just a gentle warm-up. Outside of the Bitcoin crowd, investors are not quite ready to hit the panic button, so confident are they that the buy-the-dips bozos will step in at any moment. They just might, but we'll want to fade their action with increasing aggressiveness the higher they take this brick. _______ UPDATE (Nov 18, 11:18 p.m): The futures tripped a minor 'mechanical' buy signal at 6626.75 that is predicated on a 6725.00 target. Short there only if you've made some
Bears looked pathetic on Friday when they failed to crush the opposition following hard selling overnight. Even so, I continue to believe that stocks have entered a bear market. This implies that a 7057.50 target drum-rolled here earlier will not be reached. I am not chiseling this forecast in stone, however, and I'd suggest using the details of my 15:07 post in the chat room to follow the play-by-play yourself. The critical thing to notice about Friday's bounce is that it came from below the 'd target of the pattern shown in the chart (inset). The overshoot may not look like much, but it is significant in the context of an aging bull market that until now has produced weak corrective ABCDs. To determine how significant, keep a close eye on two 'hidden' impediments above: 6786 and 6918. The provenance of both is explained in my chat room post.
Even with its unusually elongated A-B leg, the pattern shown remains the best source of tradable information we have for the runaway bull market. Price action at p suggests the 7057.50 target is likely to be reached, but until it is decisively breached, we won't concern ourselves with a still higher target at 7531.25 that was identified here earlier. As you can see, the pattern also leaves room for a few scary corrections along the way. The current one will need to come down to the red line (p=6798.88), however, before I suggest buying there 'mechanically'. We usually do these trades on pullbacks to the green line, but in this case, given the steepness of the uptrend, that opportunity may not materialize. The 'textbook' stop-loss for this trade would be at 6712.50, but in practice, we would use a 'camo' trigger to pare down theoretical entry risk by at least 90%. _______ UPDATE (Nov 3, 2:35 p.m.): Today's refreshing plunge has brought greater clarity to the immediate outlook. You can expect the futures to fall to a tradable low at 6681.75. If they rally first to 6885.7, short the crap out of them, stop 6954.00. The latter trade should be done only with a 'camo' trigger that cuts theoretical entry risk to no more than $400 per contract, and only if you've caught a profitable piece of the ride up. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 2025): DaBoyz used every sleazy trick in the book to spike ES (see my explanation in the chat room), but they couldn't even goose it to the red line (p=6865.63) before buyers turned tail at day's end. Use the pattern shown, ugly but serviceable, to determine whether They will eventually succeed. A decisive thrust past 'p', especially followed by a close above it, will imply that dangerous
The chart shows two bullish targets that are likely to be reached in the weeks and months ahead. Most immediately, there is the 7057.50 target of the smaller pattern. A more important Hidden Pivot sits well above it at 7351.25. It is particularly important because it would max out bullish patterns on the weekly chart. Both are likely to be achieved because buyers showed little struggle overcoming the respective midpoint Hidden Pivots. Most immediately, if the December contract pulls back from between the red line (p=6798.88) and the pink one (p2=6928.19), a 'mechanical' bid at the green line (x=6669.50) would enjoy excellent odds of success. _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 4:23 p.m. EDT): Please check out my latest post in the chat room for new, potentially tradable, details. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 7:59 a.m.): See my 5:54 a.m. update in the chatroom for the latest outlook.
Friday's short-squeeze bounce came from within a hair of the 'secondary' (p2) Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. The rally subsequently signaled a short sale when it hit the green line (x=6700.19). The trade was do-able only if you used a reverse-pattern trigger to limit risk. I'm not going to recommend it because the futures are already starting to feel the magnetic pull of last week's high, 6766.75. However, we can still record a paper-trade and monitor it closely to determine whether bulls or bears are in charge at the moment. If the latter, the short should work, eventually falling to D=6500.00 despite the fright-mask intensity of Friday's rebound.
Sellers exceeded a compelling 'hidden' support at 6582 that I posted in the chat room on Friday, implying they will likely return in force this week. The reversal off a strong opening was unusually severe, even for a Freaky Friday, and I am therefore treating it as the possible start of a full-blown bear market. My reasons are detailed in the current commentary, but the grim technical implications are shown in the chart (inset). A 6.6% fall to at least p=6120.75 is indicated, but this is admittedly speculative, since the futures have not yet touched the green line (x=6466.50) to trigger a theoretical short. There is an alternative, minimum downside target at 6315.75 that we should monitor closely, but I have decided not to feature such half-baked scenarios because I believe Papa Bear has at last emerged from his lair after hibernating for 16 years. Incidentally, a voodoo number above 6300.00 will be worth bottom-fishing in any case, but since it is proprietary, I have posted it in the chat room. ______ UPDATE (Oct 13, 10:45 p.m.): Check out my 4:45 a.m. post in the chat room for guidance on getting long in this vehicle, and then shorting it at 6741.50. I'd suggest a small-pattern trigger (a.k.a. 'camouflage') for the latter trade. _______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 11:10 a.m. EDT): The trade triggered and was quickly stopped out for a $700 loss per contract. Although the pre-opening, overnight high at 6741.00 missed my Hidden Pivot target by just two ticks, it thereupon became a 'number of interest' when the high sat for an hour-and-a-half to be anxiously contemplated by traders ahead of the bell. The most important takeaway here: ES was a good short only if it was cushioned by profits made en route to the target. The odds of catching a
The futures have behaved well, meaning predictably and profitably, within the pattern shown, so far producing a short precisely from p2, and on Thursday a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=6659.00). There are no guarantees bulls will achieve D=6803.34, since price action at the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=6707.17) has been a knock-down, drag-out battle. But since every rally for the last 16 years has equaled or surpassed its target, there is no reason to think this one will go unachieved. A final note: There are two textbook trades left in the pattern -- long to d; and, if you've made money on the ride up, short at D. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3, 1:34 p.m.): The pullback from exactly 6800.00 seems too coy to last, but we should still respect the possibility of an important top there, since it fell just a split-hair shy of a compelling Hidden Pivot target that took four months to reach. If, as is more likely, bulls get second wind and continue higher, 6874.25 would be the next logical stop on the way to, like, Mars. If you got short as suggested above, an rABC pattern extrapolated from the hourly chart (a=6787.50) would have triggered at 6794.75 and taken you out of half with a quick profit at 6779.00. The next, potentially buyable, Hidden Pivot support for this correction comes in at 6736.50.
The Endless Bull Market still has a ways to go, although a key component of it, the E-Mini S&P 500, is coming up on an important Hidden Pivot resistance at 6803.75 that lies just 1.2% above. Trump's ability to transform an economy fatally swollen with debt into a beautiful vista is vastly overrated, as is the promise of AI, and that's why we should be on our guard for the onset of a bear market that is long overdue. Most immediately, that means paying close attention to price action at 6740.25, the midpoint between D and p2=6676.56. Trends within patterns as obvious as the one shown often fall short of expectations, and the midpoint between levels is where to expect such failures to occur. We'll treat this one as we would a conventional midpoint (p) Hidden Pivot, meaning the futures would become a strong bet to achieve 'D' if they blow past 6740.25. The D target is shortable but bound to get front-run because of the pattern's obviousness, so don't look for a precise turn from within a point or less of where we should want it to occur. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 8:07 p.m. EDT): Just a slight downward adjustment: I now see the futures achieving a minimum 6801.25. _______ UPDATE (Sep 25, 1:13 p.m. EDT): The futures have come down unusually hard after stalling precisely at the 6758.50 secondary pivot associated with the 6801 target identified above. They triggered a theoretical 'mechanical' buy signal at 6661.50 this morning, but a subsequent low flirted with the 6612.75 stop-loss, casting the bullish outlook into doubt. On the other hand, all previous bets that the bull market is at an end have lost, so we are obliged to give the bull the benefit of the doubt for now. We'll stay close to
The futures ended last week's sprightly death dance poised to move higher as soon as Wall Street gives the all-clear for nervous Nellies worried about the war between Israel and Iran. Although the September contract hasn't signaled a certain move to the 6358.00 rally target, it has shown enough buoyancy to make a pullback to the green line (x=5948.00) an enticing buy with a 5811.00 stop-loss. Use a 'camo' trigger to cut that down to size so that theoretical entry risk is no more than $175 per contract.
I've used the June chart to allow a little more running room for the finale of this now two-month-old bear rally. The new target lies at 6132.75, about 82 points above the one given here previously. Although I am fairly confident the Hidden Pivot resistance will work, I'm prepared nonetheless for a Mother of All Tops to occur marginally above last December's record-high 6235. I don't usually dig in my heels where mere feelings are involved, but I've had it up to here with bullish hubris and the idiotic notion that stocks somehow deserve to be trading at these levels. We are literally at a civilizational height of folly, and the usual shenanigans will not suffice to push this vehicle through formidable layers of supply that accumulated between last October and March. It may be working for Microsoft, but that is why I expressed doubts earlier that the broad averages would follow.
