ESM13

If the futures are in fact in a topping process near our longstanding target at 1624, it has become painfully tedious to monitor.  To get short via camouflage, traders should nonetheless continue to look for bearish impulse legs on charts of 15-minute degree or less.  As always, the goal would be to come away from even bad trades with a small profit or a scratch. A decisive move higher could be expected to generate another shorting opportunity near the 1646.75 target shown (see inset), but my gut feeling as that there has been too much consolidation already to propel the rally a mere 23 points higher.  An alternative interpretation is that the 1629.75 target associated with A2 could still contain the move.

We pored over the lesser charts in the chat room yesterday morning looking for low-risk opportunities to get short. Alas, a minor rally with a 1622.00 target fell a tick shy, denying us the easy opportunity we'd sought. This may have been for the better, however, since a far more important rally target sits just above it. (The topmost green line provides the exact number, although, for reasons given here earlier, I'd prefer not to mention it explicitly in this tout.)  Camouflageurs, including night owls, should look for shorting opportunities now, but if the futures blow past the target on the opening bell, 1640.50 (A=1476.25) would be the next opportunity. Traders should exercise a bullish bias at any point in-between.

You should check the archive for the location of some key rally targets not far above, as well as for tactics we intend to use to leverage them. Since higher prices are implied in any case, traders in search of buying opportunities on the way up might want to check out the one-minute chart (see inset), since it is a cornucopia of 'external" peaks suitable for camo-ready predators.

Once again, I am refraining from posting a key rally target that we plan to short in hopes that this will help reduce front-running.  To calculate the target yourself, use these coordinates from the 240-minute chart: A=1375.75 (12/28/12); and B= 1523.75.  Camouflage is advised if and when the opportunity arises, but if you take a lazy man's approach, I'd suggest using a single contract with a 1.00-point initial stop-loss. Keep in mind that any movement above Friday's high in the cash index would imply that your trading bias in this vehicle should be bullish until the target is reached.  Please note as well that a 1648 target in the former has an analog in this vehicle at 1647.50 (also very short-able: A=1476.25 on 2/25).  Check my Sunday post (16:26) for a further note.

Surprise, surprise. A single day of  moderate selling in the face of dismal economic news seems to have rejuvenated OPM-crazed buyers for yet another run-up to new record highs. Keep firmly in mind the rally target that I have refrained from publishing outside of the chat room. This tactic won't necessary prevent our getting front-run when we attempt to get short up there, but it might help thin out the crowd a little. As before, we will continue to guard against getting suckered if DaBoyz should spring a bull trap just above the 1594 Hidden Pivot threshold we've been focused on for many weeks and weeks.

It's early Thursday morning and DaScumballs have managed to rally this hoax moderately, presumably to put pensioners, orphans and widows they intend to fleece at ease.  The effort is not at all impressive, although it would become bullishly impulsive on the lowly 3-minute chart with a relatively modest thrust exceeding  1584.25 (see inset).  A larger pattern on the 15-minute chart has developed several bearish ABCs, but their promise, such as it is, is diminished by tonight's lazy waft higher.

A push to new record highs seems a foregone conclusion at this point.  The futures are exactly where they were three weeks ago, when I drum-rolled a 1494.25 target as a potentially important high. That could still be the case, since the target itself, missed by 1.25 points, remains viable. It wouldn't be the first time a bull trap was sprung at a marginal new high. As a practical matter, let's plan on getting short at a hitherto unremarked target that comes from the weekly chart. So that the target doesn't become a sitting duck for front-runners, I've provided coordinates in the chat room so that you can calculate it yourselves. They can be found in a post at 00:49 Tuesday, the first of the day.

Take your pick of several downtrending abc's.  If the futures do in fact head lower, my choice is the one shown, with a 1567.75 target. You can try bottom-fishing there, one contract, stop 1566.75; or four contracts if you use camouflage that limits your theoretical loss to no more than 3-4 ticks per contract.  Please note that the 1574.50 midpoint support has already been breached as of late Sunday night.  Alternatively, if buyers come out swinging, there's a veritable forest of 'external' peaks you can use to find a subtle entry opportunity unlike;y to be perceived as a breakout by the competition.

The futures missed a 1589.00 rally target given here yesterday by three ticks. Fortunately, that didn't deter an intrepid camouflageur who goes by the chat-room handle 'Davis' from getting short a few points off the top. He reported taking a partial profit one point below the 1585.75 entry price, then taking a single contract home after the bell.  We wished him good luck. Luck aside, with the Mother of All Bull Traps now in its fifth year, getting short will always be grabbing a tiger by the tail. Davis' trade has the potential to rack up an additional 7-point ($350) gain, based on the target shown (lower green line). however, judging from the bounce the futures got from the 1578.50 midpoint, it's not going to be easy money. _______ UPDATE (10:54 a.m. EDT):  With one 4-point rally interrupting overnight, the futures bottomed exactly at the 1574.50 target shown in the chart.  Since then, they've been in a headless chicken dance that was verging on taking out the low. Want to join in the fun? Click here for a free trial subscription that includes daily touts and access to a 24/7 chat room that draws experienced traders from around the world.