The bounce off Thursday's lows points most immediately to the 1394.30 target shown, although we should be wary of the fact that bulls initiating a trade at the first signaled 'x' would have been stopped out. Regardless, if and when buyers get second wind, pushing this vehicle past the 1388.10 midpoint, we should infer that it's on its way to the target. Thereafter, as always, an easy move through 1394.30 would portend another leg up, presumably after a correction. ______ UPDATE (12:17 p.m. EDT): After pushing past the midpoint, the futures were unable to parlay this success into what should have been an easy move to at least 1394.30. This is disappointing, to say the least, and implies that today's $13 rally was just more screw-the-pooch price action.
GCQ13
GCQ13 – August Gold (Last:1372.90)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksThe August contract looks headed for another test of a 1354.20 midpoint support that barely held last time. If this Hidden Pivot is breached intraday by more than $2.00 or so, or the futures close beneath it for two consecutive days, we should infer that they are bound for the pattern's 'D' sibling at 1219.20. A target very close to this was first breached here a month ago in conjunction with the June futures, along with another at 1190.
GCQ13 – August Gold (Last:1384.30)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksNasty as Friday's plunge may have seemed, it left intact two closely spaced, bullish targets we've been using for the last week or so as a minimum upside objective. To simplify, we'll remain focused on the lower one, 1426.60, since any rally that gets there is likely to hit the higher target (see archive) at 1427.00 as well. We'll have a better idea of whether bulls are merely biding their time or, alternatively, seriously fatigued once the down-leg shown has generated a 'c-d' follow-through. If it's no worse than the pause that refreshes, expect the corrective phase to reverse from a 'p' midpoint resembling the hypothetical one sketched.
GCQ13 – August Gold (Last:1406.50)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksCoincident rally targets not far above will give us an opportunity to gauge bulls' mettle, assuming they can soon muster the 20-point push to get there. The targets lie, respectively, at 1426.60 and 1427.00 (see inset), and their implied double stopping power should restrain the rally sufficiently to backstop scalpers looking for an easy, if possibly short-lived, short. However, if the futures were to push past this barrier within an hour or so of touching it, we should infer that still higher prices impend over the near term.
GCQ13 – August Gold (Last:1388.00)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksNo sooner had the futures exceeded the bullish threshold I'd flagged at 1417.10 (1416.50, basis June), setting up a potential buy signal Friday morning, than they retreated into a duel between bears and bulls. No trading signal was tripped, and although bulls still hold a small edge in this fray, it was not exactly a healthy sign that the decline has come without the futures having reached the 1426.00 rally target shown. We'll await further price action to inform any trades we might consider, but if last Tuesday's low at 1372.80 fails to hold, prospects on the hourly chart would darken. However, it would take a fall beneath 1354.40 to turn it outright bearish.
