GCZ11

The futures have made some bullish headway Sunday night, but the effort has noticeably fallen shy -- by just two ticks -- of an important 'external' peak at 1797.70 shown in the chart. This is a sign of timidity, if not weakness, but we should continue to insist that rallies are properly impulsive before we get carried away by premature bullishness. What that implies for the bigger picture is that the December contract will need to take out the 1832.90 peak from September 19 to turn the daily chart decisively bullish.  In any event, let's keep a close watch on how it handles the aforementioned peak at 1797.70., along with its more daunting siblings at, respectively, 1889.10 (September 9) and 1923.70 (September 6) , the all-time high.

Yesterday's bullish turn came from $2.40 above a 1734.20 downside target, but the bullish implications of this will not be 'actualized' until such time as the bounce achieves a minimum 1780.30 today.  That's not quite an 'external' peak on the 30-minute chart, visually speaking, but it'll do for purposes of reckoning impulsiveness on the lesser charts. Night owls should plan on bottom-fishing at the 1743.70 midpoint support shown if the opportunity arises.

Sellers took their best shot yesterday and still couldn't bully the December contract below Monday's 1763.30 bottom. A sign of cowardice? Perhaps, but if the good guys want to wrest control, they'll need to reverse the trend and push the futures above the 1781.20 'external' peak shown. Otherwise, look for weakness to continue to at least 1760.50, a minor Hidden Pivot that lies within a thicket of implied support from last Friday's lows. If  that target gets shredded, however, we'd be looking at a minimum 1747.10, a Hidden Pivot that looks tailor-made for camo bottom-fishing.

Yesterday's volatile price action broke the momentum to a presumptive 1830.50 target, but that Hidden Pivot still serves as our minimum upside objective for the near term. The dive from an intraday high at 1004.40 created a clean, sharp impulse leg, and with it the prospect of a spot to try bottom-fishing at a 'p' midpoint of whatever follow-through c-d leg impends.  For the guidance of traders, I have sketched out an ideal scenario in the accompanying chart. _______ UPDATE (2:16 a.m. EST): As of this moment, the midpoint support lies at 1783.00.

A Hidden Pivot resistance at 1785.60 remains my minimum upside objective for the moment, but a close above it, as noted here earlier, would put the 1830.50 target of a larger pattern in play. Early Monday morning, the futures were nicely on track to continue higher, having pushed past the 1772.60 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown.  It's 'D' sibling lies at 1795.30, at which point the round-number benchmark at 1800 should be magnetic. _______ UPDATE (11:29 a.m. EST): The 1785.60 target given above appears to  have caught the top of a $30 rally within a single tick.  The pullback from this morning's 1785.50 high has come down to 1781.60 so far.  Someone in the chat room mentioned having gotten short at the top. If you did likewise, perhaps reversing a long position, I'd suggest taking a partial profit here and tying the rest of the position to an impulse-leg stop on the one-minute chart. At this precise moment, that would imply exiting at 1785.10.

The December futures did all we asked of them yesterday, punching through an 'external' peak at 1757.90 with enough force to threaten the bad guys. If bulls have indeed recovered their mojo, expect the rally to continue today to at least 1785.60, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown.  Even more bullish would be a close above that number, since it would make the 1830.50 target of a larger pattern, also shown, an even-odds bet for the near term.

We're still looking for the modest thrust that would transform the sideways tedium of the last six weeks into a glide path to new all-time highs. As I noted here yesterday, all  it would take is a push above 1757.90, an external peak recorded September 22 when the futures were getting slammed over a period of several weeks. They got within shooting distance of that number yesterday at the top of a so-far $64 rally from this week's lows, but buyers turned timid just short of a 1754.00 peak from last week that marked the highest price achieved since the futures bottomed in late September.

Despite a nearly $50 rally from within 30 cents of the correction target given here yesterday, the December contract has dropped two subtle hints that it's not ready to take off. For one, last Thursday's upthrust to 1754.00 narrowly failed to get past a 1757.90 'external' peak from September that is undeniably daunting. And for two, the corrective abcd from last week's 1754.00 high made it all the way to its 'd' target rather than reversing from the 'p' midpoint of the pattern.  These small signs of weakness would be negated by a pop exceeding 1757.90, but until that happens, the burden of proof will remain with the bulls.

See-saw action created a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart with downside potential to as low as 1680.90 over the next day or two. The midpoint Hidden Pivot support lies at 1705.10, a few tick beneath yesterday's low, and if it's breached on a closing basis or by more than 1.50 points intraday, that would shorten the odds of a further fall to 1680.90. Alternatively, bulls would need to hit 1731.10 today to get out of immediate jeopardy. The lowermost number can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as six ticks, but a 'camo' entry would be better. ________ UPDATE (10:10 a.m. EDT):  The 1680.90 target caught the low of a $44 plunge within 30 cents. The subsequent $32 bounce was a doozey, allowing one to trade today's price action quite profitably if one trusted the Hidden Pivots posted above.