Gold

Sellers savaged the 3313.20 midpoint support with such ease last week that the futures are likely to continue down to at least p2=3231.60. And if they fail to get a strong bounce from that Hidden Pivot, expect the correction to hit D=3150.00. An additional possibility is that the turn will come from near the middle of the gap between p and p2, or between p2 and D. Unfortunately, the only way one can trade that scenario with risk tightly controlled is to watch for the turn on a chart of every small (i.e., one- or two-minute) bar chart. And here's one more possible bottom-fishing opportunity for Pivoteers who know how to craft a low-risk trigger: 3253.30, a voodoo number. ________ UPDATE (Jul 2, 1:19 a.m.) The futures opened on a gap down to 3250.50 on Sunday afternoon, triggering a long entry at 3257.60. (The 'reverse' used to fashion the trigger can be found on the 30-min chart, where a=3266.50 on 6/27 at 9:00 a.m.) The pattern, the only one available, could not have produced a losing trade, but it triggered at a time of day when relatively few would have been watching. I have not established a tracking position because no one reported getting long.

I've masked the proprietary origins of the 3326.40 target shown, but suffice it to say it is the 'd' Hidden Pivot target of a big 'reverse' pattern. However you slice it, it looks like a promising spot to try bottom-fishing with a stop-loss as tight as 1.50-2.00 points. It can also be used as a minimum downside objective, since the 'd' target of a smaller reverse pattern was exceeded on Friday. The overshoot was just a point or two, but that is enough for us to infer that more weakness is coming.  We used a similarly derived target last week to get aboard a $33 upthrust within $2 of the low.  Gold has been equally nasty toward bulls and bears alike over the last two weeks, but if it breaks the 3326.40 support easily, it is bulls who are likely to get flayed -- all the way down to as low as 3251.40, or even 3176.40. I'm not saying much about the bullish case because gold has been such a little sonofabitch lately, but if it surprises by heading higher Sunday evening, look for a run-up to at least 3437.80, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of a conventional pattern on the hourly chart (A= 3313.10 on 6/8). A close above that number would indicate still more upside to at least 3519.40. My longer-term projection is quite bullish and calls for a rally to 3695.30. _______ UPDATE Jun 24, 10:12 a.m. EDT): The futures have breached a would-be concrete midpoint support at 3326.40, and that means they are likely to fall to at least 3251.40; or, if that Hidden Pivot support fails, to a worst-case 3176.40. Either number can be bottom-fished aggressively, provided you have the chops to limit entry risk to no more than $250 per contract.  Here's the chart.

Bulls finally broke through a crucial midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 3423.20 after weeks of pumping and priming, clearing the way for more upside to at least p2=3559.20, the pattern's secondary pivot. As always, its decisive breach would portend a likely finishing stroke to D=3695.30. We are unlikely to see a swoon back to the green line (x=3281.10), but if this should occur, plan on bottom-fishing there 'mechanically' with a 3151.00 stop-loss. More immediately, if the future haven't exceeded 3467.00, you can try bottom-fishing around 3356.80. That number could be expected to work exactly but for the fact that it coincides with a previous low at 3358.50 recorded on June 12 that is going to attract too many eyeballs. _______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 2:59 p.m. EDT): With Wall Street celebrating “risk-off” like there will be a million bright tomorrows, bullion is getting hit especially hard. Just remember, the selling is being orchestrated by agents who are eager to buy the stuff. I expect the fake carnage to continue down to 3361.70 [modified] before the futures turn around. August Gold is currently trading around 3407.90. _______ UPDATE (Jun 19, 9:12 a.m. EDT):  My revised correction target for August Gold (see above) came within $2.10 of nailing the v-shaped low of a so-far $33 rally. It's too early to tell whether this will mark an important bottom, but if you got aboard near the low, you should be out of a third to half of the position with a partial profit of as much as $3,000 per contract. Assuming the bounce continues, the closest target is 3419.00. Here's a graph that shows it all. _______ UPDATE (Jun 20, 1:22 a.m. EDT):  The futures have relapsed after rallying sharply from within an inch of my 3361.70 correction target (see above). I recommend playing for

The strong rally materialized on schedule, then stalled almost precisely at the 3423.20 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance that I'd flagged. Bulls will need to exceed this impediment decisively to clear a path for more upside to the 3559.20 'secondary' pivot, and thence D=3695.30. I'd said that last target would take 5-7 weeks to reach, but there can be no guarantees it will be reached at all until such time as p=3423.20 is left choking on prop wash. More immediately, plan on bottom-fishing if the futures pull back to x=3287.10. A 3150.00 stop-loss would be appropriate, but you'll need to employ your own risk-reduction strategy to pare the theoretical entry risk of $13,700 per contract down to something closer to $300.  I do this by using a much smaller 'trigger' pattern to get me aboard, a somewhat labor-intensive tactic called 'camouflage'

Gold's bull market remains solidly intact, but it is in no hurry at the moment to push up to the $5000 level as its handlers presumably intend. In the meantime, expect the futures to mark time with a drift down into the $3000-$3100 range, where they could cruise effortlessly for months until it's time to stretch the bullish imagination yet again. Alternatively, a decisive push above $3400 would imply that the sovereign entities that have been doing most of the buying sense a further escalation of geopolitical trouble on the horizon. The 'D' rally target associated with a 3393.10 midpoint resistance lies at 3662.80, the highest target I could foresee over the next 5-7 weeks. (Please note that 3423.20 is the equivalent midpoint resistance for the August Comex contract. It is tied to a 'D' target at 3695.30.) ______ UPDATE (June 3, 12:12 a.m.): An explosive overnight rally has pushed the August contract to a so-far high at 3417.80 that lies just an inch from the 3423.20 midpoint resistance I'd said was key. A decisive move past it will clinch more upside to at least p2=3559.20, and thence to the 3695.30 'D' target given above as my maximum upside objective for the next 5-7 weeks.

A 3360.50 rally target kept us confidently on board last week, even though DaBoyz tried their hardest to shake bulls loose on Thursday. Notice that the futures slightly exceeded the target by $6.  The 0.17% overshoot may not seem significant, but it has bullish implications in this case because the target, a Hidden Pivot resistance, should have worked precisely.  The next rally target lies at 3393.10, the midpoint resistance of a bigger, conventional pattern going back to April 7's 2970.40 low. It is tied to a 'D' target at 3662.80 that lies $153 above the previous record.

Gold's bounce from a deep hole last Thursday did not quite live up to our expectations, so the outlook is bearish for the near term. More oomph would have pushed the June futures above an external peak at 3270.40 recorded on May 13, but the buying sputtered out well below, at 3208.70. The implication is that if the bounce from Friday's low hits the green line (x=3219.20) it would trigger a 'mechanical' short, stop 2355.90. The trade would be predicated on a target at 3109.40, a good place to bottom-fish aggressively if the opportunity should arise. _______ UPDATE (May 20, 9:20): When a picture-perfect trading opportunity like the short trade recommended above doesn't produce an easy profit, it's safe to conclude that the trend you've bet on is about to reverse. This one did, although not quite with a vengeance, only a sissy punch below the belt. The rally is bound for a minimum 3360.50, a Hidden Pivot that should show potentially tradable stopping power. If bulls can punch through it, expect a test of the 3448.20 high recorded on May 6.

June Gold looks headed to at least 3730.00, but that's provided it can get past the 3533.90 Hidden Pivot I ballyhooed here for a while. (The target worked well, to put it mildly, getting within 0.6% of the actual so-far top at 3510.) If June Gold were to drop by $200 now, it would not necessarily be reason for concern; for in fact, 3135.90 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 2938.00. These numbers come from the monthly composite chart (see thumbnail inset), where A=1618 in November 2022.  Best bet for tightly stopped bottom-fishing: 3261.50, the 'd' target of a pattern discernible on the hourly chart.  _______ UPDATE (May 12, 3:08 p.m. EDT): The savage drubbing gold has received today reversed from such an obvious place that a relapse seems likely. The low for June Gold occurred at 3211.20, a hair above an important low recorded on May 1. Look for the selling to continue to at least 3147.70 before the futures find a decent foothold. (Note: The pattern on which this target is based is poorly formed, so I would not advise trying to bottom-fish there with the usual tight stop-loss.) Alternatively, a pop above 3352.70, however unlikely at the moment, would put bulls solidly back in charge. The selling feels more engineered than organic, and I doubt it threatens the long-term bull market. However, we’ll let the charts decide, since the downtrend would likely have farther to go if bearish ABCD patterns of varying time frames start to exceed their ‘D’ targets routinely

I used a tiny one-off high to draw the pattern shown, but three confirmations at p suggest it will produce only winning outcomes for us. That would imply that a drop to D=3174.50 should be bought aggressively, albeit with the obligatory micro-stop possible using a 'camo' trigger. One thing the chart does NOT say is that June Gold will necessarily reach the target, since the initial penetration of the midpoint Hidden Pivot was anything but decisive. Notice, however, that it delivered a profitable 'mechanical' short - three of them, actually - and that's usually a tip-off that D/d will be reached. We don't much trade 'conventional' patterns any longer, but this one, with its crazy point 'a' and asymmetry, seemed ripe for exploitation. _______ UPDATE Apr 6, 5:52 p.m.): As the chart makes crystal-clear, June Gold is headed most immediately to 3472.7, the ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ of the pattern shown. It can be shorted there, but only with a delicate stop-loss, since the futures will be on their way to 3736.00 in a trice if they blow past the midpoint resistance without hesitation. You could always try shorting up there, but wouldn’t it be far better to shove your accursed doubts aside for once and catch an almost certain 300-point rally?