Gold

There's a Hidden Pivot support at 1757.40 to break gold's steepening fall, but then what?  A tradeable low seems very likely to occur there, or somewhat lower near one of several 'external' lows that stairstep down to 1704.30. The downtrend could even end with Friday's 1797.20 low, the pattern's 'secondary' pivot, but I wouldn't count on it. The futures are certain to be volatile and therefore tradeable while they carve out a bottom, but opportunities will necessarily be labor-intensive and short-lived.

My apologies for putting out a gold tout Sunday night so confusing that it confused even me. It were as though aliens had beamed signals into my head when I composed and published it. The 1825,8 target we've been using all along is still a 'definite', and it would be a load-up-the-truck-price were it not for the fact that I have been drum-rolling this number for the last several weeks. We can still make use of it when the time comes, so tune to the trading room when the futures get within $7-$10 of it. ______ UPDATE (May 11, 10:33 p.m. EDT): Today's nitwit-powered conniptions push the June contract moderately higher but failed to surpass any 'external peaks even on the hourly chart. This is disappointing, considering the rally came off a longstanding, very important Hidden Pivot target at 1825.80.  Perhaps it was too well advertised and must suffer a relapse before gold can bottom?  Regardless, an important low appears all but certain to occur somewhere very near here because the target is so clear and compelling. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 9:55 p.m.): The futures crashed the 1825.80 'hidden' support, so I've shifted to the 'marquee' point A high, which allows for a bottom at 1814.20. That 'D' target has been exceeded, but only by $5. The jury is still out, but it'll take a print at 1864.80 to get out of immediate jeopardy.

The week ended with a feebly impulsive rally, so we shouldn't get our hopes too high that the June contract will somehow avoid a predicted fall to at least the 1825.80 target of the pattern shown. It ha s been working fairly well for trading purposes although, strictly speaking, the rally to the red line on Friday did not trigger a valid 'mechanical' short because it came from a low that missed touching p2 by a hair's breadth. ______ UPDATE (May 2, 6:47 p.m.): Mechanical trades rated higher the '7' are rare, but here's one that triggered today -- on the monthly chart, no less! With more than $60,000 of initial risk on four contracts, however, this is one you should either paper trade or execute using 'camouflage' in the full-size  contract or the mini.  My target for the corrective move, basis the June contract, suggests the futures will go lower, to at least 1825.80, before they can turn around.  The 2329.10 rally target is hardly a done deal, but it is not looking too shabby for the long term, given the way buyers impaled p=2011 in March. _______ UPDATE (May 4, 10:45 p.m.): So far, so good!  The corrective rally implied in my last update has traveled $50 since bottoming. This occurred a millimeter from an 1852.30 low I'd rated 8.1 for 'mechanical' longs. Anyone aboard?  _______ UPDATE (May 5, 9:31 p.m.): Yet another promising rally turned to dross when the futures reversed near the opening and gave up nearly all of the previous day's gains. I'll have little more to say ahead of the weekend.

Subscribers should have exited a profitable long trade using a 1942.30 stop-loss before the futures turned limp on Friday. The fact that a moderately appealing 'mechanical' play didn't work better suggests weakness will be the coming week's theme. But probably not too much of it, since sellers have not shown much gumption either. My gut feeling is that DaBoyz will stop out C=1893.20 before they gratuitously reverse until hopes are high enough to dash yet again.  Set your snooze alarm for 2018.40, a tick above an 'external' peak recorded on March whose breach would signal a bullish resurgence. _____ UPDATE (Apr 25, 5:04 p.m.): After plunging sharply overnight, the reversal came exactly as anticipated, from a hair below C=1893.20. One subscriber reported making hay with the $13 rally that ensued. The futures spent the rest of the day playing footsies with 'C', leaving me with little more to say at the moment. _______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 11:55 p.m.): Although June Gold has bounced from precisely where we'd anticipated, the countertrend has been weak. This has activated the bearish pattern shown in this chart, with a D target at 1825.80. It is an odds-on bet to be reached because of the easy with which the downtrend penetrated p=1914.40, then made it resistance. _______ UPDATE (Apr 28, 10:16 p.m.): The futures bounced sharply off p2=1870.10 of the bearish pattern that projects to 1825.80, delaying a still-likely fall to that number. This has activated Matt's Curse in a bullish way, although I'd need to see the rally surpass 1922.80 before I change my tune.

To alleviate the brutal tedium of gold's dance just beneath my old target, I've created a new, slightly lower target at 1986.40 that has already been achieved. This will not affect the pattern's promise to reward 'mechanical' buyers with relatively low-risk profits, since the tradeable implications of its powerful impulse leg cannot be easily subverted. It will also give us a good chance to catch a potentially tradeable top at D=2079.50 with a high degree of precision. This may take great patience, but the wait will be made more bearable by the knowledge that a nasty swoon would likely spell opportunity. _______ UPDATE (Apr 18, 9:24 a.m.): With just a day's rest, buyers have blown through p=1986.40, all but guaranteeing more upside over the near term to at least p2=2032.90.  _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 12:56 p.m.): Yes, the pullback to x=1939.80 makes for an appealing 'mechanical' buy'. However, the implied risk of $18,000 risk on four contracts with a stop-loss at 1893.10 warrants doing the trade only if you are familiar with 'camouflage' triggers that could pare the theoretical risk down to around $1600. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 11:48 p.m.): The futures have rallied $20 off a 1941.00 low that missed the green line by a front-run 1.20. If you did the trade, take 25% off at a current 1953.30 and set a 1942.30 stop-loss for what remains. Our price objective for two of the three contracts still held is p=1986.40.

The bull trend begun in February has gone comatose along with the stock market. The timing of the breakout is unpredictable, but look for the futures to ascend quickly to p=1993.20 when it happens. The futures could continue to swing gratuitously $40 either way in the meantime, but any trading opportunities thereof would need to come from the lesser intraday charts.

Gold has sold off hard after peaking three weeks ago at $2082, about 1.8% beneath the all-time high at $2122 recorded in August 2020. Because the pullback has come from the pattern's sweet spot above p=2022, we should be prepared to buy the June futures 'mechanically' if they pull back to the green line.  There's nearly $16,000 per contract of theoretical entry risk, so we will naturally be looking to 'camo' our way aboard in order to cut that down to more like $600-$800. Stay tuned to the chat room and keep your account 'Notifications' switched on if you're keen to play.

Gold has rewarded patient bulls with an occasional kick in the teeth and an uptrend that can suddenly  turn into a Bataan march for months on end. The good news is that it has done even worse by bears, demonstrating repeatedly that, try as they may, they cannot suppress strong, persistent demand from all corners of the world in these all-too-interesting times. At present, the April contract is making its way toward a  seemingly inevitable rendezvous with the 1988.50 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart. We'll know whether buyers are capable of hitting D=2081.80 once we've seen how they fare on first contact with the midpoint resistance.  Trade with a bullish bias for now, but only with risk tightly controlled using entry set-ups on the lesser charts (a.k.a. 'camouflage'). ______ UPDATE (Mar 28, 5:22 p.m.): The rally turned to crud well shy of 1988.50 (see above), so the yellow flag is out. My hunch is that the usual scumwads from the bullion banking world  will stop out C=1895.20 before they cease their gratuitous pounding of gold. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 11:30 p.m.): Although the rally came from a 'too-obvious' place, it evidently caught enough traders by surprise to keep on going. This pattern, which produced a 'mechanical' winner on the pullback to the green line, can tell us if the uptrend will continue if D=1927.70 is decisively breached. It will also work for for an rABC short, using an extremely tight a-b segment. _______ UPDATE (Mar 30, 10:09); Yo-te-ho! The futures rallied overnight, topping at exactly 1927.80 (2:25 a.m.), a single tick above the Hidden Pivot target I'd furnished for your trading guidance; then they relapsed to 1916.30 over the next three hours. A short with as tight a stop-loss as two ticks would have survived, and the trade could have

The punitive selloff from the $2078 all-time high recorded on March 8 has generated sufficient downforce to imply that a snap-back rally is unlikely. To be sure, however, let's focus minutely on the lesser charts. The one shown has a corrective target at 1915.10 that was narrowly missed at Friday's low. The target remains viable, but if the so-far-tentative bounce continues, each new peak it surpasses would have increasingly bullish implications.  A key number is 1945.60, the midpoint pivot of a big, bullish pattern projecting to as high as 1973.80. _______ UPDATE (Mar 24, 10:50 p.m.): Two days of robust buying has shifted the focus to the bullish pattern shown in this chart. Expect minimum upside to p=1988.50, but if buyers bore through it effortlessly, a possible new all-time high at 2081.50 would come into view.