Gold

Buyers didn't exactly obliterate the 1944.20 midpoint resistance on their first attempt to get past it last week, but the futures subsequently appeared to pick up strength when they failed to pull back to the green line (x=1911.40) to gift us with a 'mechanical' long. The implication is that the futures are bound for D=2009.75 and all but certain to achieve it.  A pullback to p=1944.20 first would trigger a 'mechanical' buy with a stop-loss at 1922.30. We can cut the risk down to size in real time, so be sure to tune to the chat room for further guidance when the futures get close to the target. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 9:54 a.m. EST): Gold has topped overnight (when else?) a tenth of a percent from the $2009.75 target flagged above. Using the visual technique I detailed in the chat room last week, this was close enough to have set up a low-risk, reverse-pattern short or a precise exit from a long. Anyone do the trade? In any event, here's the chart.  The so-far low of the reversal is 1964.20, a $43 drop from the high. _____ UPDATE (Mar 8, 8:52 a.m.): Ya gotta love the way gold thumbed its nose at the very-round-number resistance, $2000! The next Hidden Pivot resistance lies at 2034.80 within a pattern on the daily chart that dates back to A= 1821.10 (2/11). It will max out at 2066.60 (A=1788.50 on 2/3). _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 10:42 p.m.): How nice to see gold acting like a FAANG stock!  I've used the highly unconventional pattern shown in this chart to project minimum upside over the near term to 2099.70.  _______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 7:23 a.m.): I've 'discovered' a new pattern that should have been more obvious to me initially and which somewhat changes my outlook for the near

Bears performed so poorly over the last two days that I should have flipped our trading pattern to its bullish doppelgänger yesterday to provide you with a more usable road map. Be that as it may, the April contract looks all but certain to achieve the 1964.00 target shown in the new chart. The pattern has already yielded up one textbook 'mechanical' buy at the green line that would have produced an $8,000 profit, but there will be no more such signals unless the futures surprise by diving to the green line again. For now, let's focus on how buyers interact with D=1964.00 on first contact, since an easy and decisive move through it would imply that the good guys, for a change, are likely to remain in charge for a while.

Bulls might be wondering what they did to deserve such brutal punishment. Why can't gold, which is in a bull market, rise relentlessly like the FAANG stocks have been doing for years? The answer is that gold's bull market is in its adolescence rather than in a hyper-extended blow-off. If it's any consolation, the two day plunge that ended the week failed to wipe out even half of February's strong gains.  The correction probably has at least another day or two to run, but I'd suggest using the pattern shown to get a handle on it as the new week begins. You should have noticed that the futures stopped a split-hair shy of a key resistance I'd flagged at 1977.10, demonstrating yet again their propensity to turn at price points so stupidly obvious that experienced traders are scared out of believing they will work. The best way for us to leverage this kind of group-think is to focus on 'counterintuitive' set-ups in particular, since they harness our own fears to make hay with contrarian ideas. _______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 9:08 a.m.): Here's the same pattern, but with 'C' adjusted higher.  Unless the new 'C' at 1935.20 is exceeded, the pattern should still work well for trading and analytical purposes.

The April contract is closing on a 1916.40 rally target that has been coming since August, albeit not without far more sturm und drang  than gold bugs might have preferred. This is a bull market patiently waiting for a change in the very big picture to make its move. Although the nature of the change is impossible to predict, we can surmise that it will be concurrent with a fraught morning on which portfolio managers awaken with the kind of dread they haven't felt since 2008. In the meantime, we'll closely monitor price action when 'D' is hit, since an easy move past it would imply that bullion may at long last  be heating up. ______ UPDATE (Feb 23, 5:30 p.m.); The so-far shallow correction after the futures kissed the 1916.40 target earlier this week suggests they're fixing to go higher.  If so, look for the move to be effortless until around 1950, where 'discomfort zone' jeopardy will be at maximum force. It's a scalp-short for those who know how, but that wouldn't diminish the likelihood of a subsequent run-up to 1977.60, where the April contract made an important peak early this year. Here's a fresh chart.  _______UPDATE (Feb 24, 9:52 a.m.): Oh my, such a shocking surprise!  April Gold ran up to within a split hair of the 1977.60 resistance noted above, then sold off by a whopping $40.  We will be in wait-and-see mode for a while, with high-confidence trade set-ups possible only on the lesser charts. 

The 1875.10 rally target of a 'reverse' pattern tracing back to November remains my minimum upside projection for the near term. The pattern has produced stellar 'mechanical' gains for subscribers who used it to get long on the dip to the green line back in October. Looking ahead optimistically, I'll suggest using the new, larger 'reverse' pattern shown to stay with the trend no matter how erratic it becomes. The pattern paradoxically yields a more modest target at 1916.40 than some smaller ones I could have used. However, because this is gold, which so often disappoints, I am being cautious. As always, a decisive move through this Hidden Pivot resistance on first contact would be a welcome sign that the rally has farther to go -- perhaps much farther. We shall see. _______ UPDATE (Feb 15, 11:23 p.m.):  The rally's failure by $1 to surpass key peak at 1882.50 recorded in November warrants a cautious outlook. Even if the peak eventually is exceeded, the likelihood of significant upside from there has already decreased. _____ UPDATE (Feb 17, 6:15 p.m.): The futures appear all but  certain to achieve the 1916.40 target, which served to keep us confidently on the right side of a balky trend. Let's see how bulls handle this 'hidden' resistance, since an easy move past it would portend a continuation of the uptrend. You can short there with 'camouflage' if you've made some bucks on the way up.

The marginally bearish pattern shown here last week obscured a marginally bullish one that put April Gold on a 'mechanical' buy signal. It was triggered a week ago when the futures came down to the green line (x=1785.90). The position would have produced a theoretical profit on four contracts of $12,000 on Friday, when a weak rally touched the red line where partial profit-taking would have been in order. All of this has little to tell us about gold's next move, but we shouldn't expect too much, given the tedium of the last ten months. _______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 8:31 p.m. EST): We can continue to use this pattern to get a precise handle on gold, since the 'mechanical' buy signal it generated two weeks ago is still live and very profitable, at least in theory. The story will become more interesting if bulls blow past D=1875.10, but I wouldn't count too heavily on it. In the meantime, a pullback from p2 to p once the higher pivot is touched could be 'mechanically' tradeable.

The tortuous pattern shown should be serviceable for now, although we have come to expect gold's nasty, gratuitous dives to fall short of their 'D' targets -- in this case 1740.00.  The p2 secondary pivot (p2) at 1769.20 is another matter, however, and it should be used to attempt bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss. Specifically, I'll suggest managing the trade with a reverse pattern where a=1836.80 on 1/25 at 6:00 a.m. EST.  Theoretical entry risk will be around $500 per contract, so this one is not recommended for novices. _______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 8:22 a.m.): Gold's moves in either direction are 100% gratuitous but tradeable nonetheless. Although the April contract failed to dip to the secondary pivot where we'd planned to do some bottom-fishing, the current rally will become 'mechanically' shortable if and when it touches x=1826.60. With about $12,000 of theoretical entry risk on four contracts, this gambit calls for a deft 'camouflage' touch. Here's the chart.

The rally has been unimpressive, but it is inarguably getting the job done. We've been using the pattern shown, with an 1873.90 target,  to stay on the right side of a challenging trend. It has helped us to avoid disappointment whenever gold dives from somewhere shy of a minor target, but also to spot money-making opportunities on the way up, including a recent $8000 winner that had been explicitly detailed here.  A similar opportunity would be signaled via a 'mechanical' buy if the futures were to fall to p=1813.50 (the red line in the chart). The appropriate stop-loss would be at 1793.30, implying $8,000 of entry risk on four contracts, but we'll find a less stressful way to get aboard if and when the opportunity comes.  ______ UPDATE (Jan 26, 9:16 p.m.): If today's gratuitous, stage-managed plunge continues, it will trip a 'mechanical' buy at x=1783.20, stop 1752.00. Don't bother with this one unless you are proficient enough with rABC 'camo' setups to cut the implied $12,000 entry risk on four contracts to no more than a tenth of that.

The week ended with a very real profit of as much as $8,000 for anyone who followed my explicit instructions. Can we do it again, you ask? Probably, although trading this particular vehicle successfully will always be akin to extracting opportunity from a hacking cough. Our winners are  necessarily leveraged at the tops of disappointing rallies and at the bottoms of gratuitously scary dives. That, after all, is what gold does -- has been doing for years. Between these extremities lies the aforementioned  hacking cough, and although its volatility should make for bountiful trading in theory, it is too much work to concern ourselves with here. The pattern shown has rewarded 'mechanical' buyers twice, but I doubt a third winner will be so easy. Even so, you can use the 'reverse' pattern shown, with an 1873.90 rally target, to plot your strategy or merely assess the strength of the uptrend, such as it is. The bad guys seemingly lack the guts to push the futures below C=1753.00, but I hesitate to use this observation to greenlight any old 'mechanical' buy set-up that comes along. ______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 10:40 p.m. EST): This evening's vertical spike has stalled very precisely at p2=1843.70 of the bullish pattern that has guided us for the last month. A decisive push through it would clinch more upside to the 1873.90 target, but it will be more interesting if this Hidden Pivot gives way easily. That would set up a test of the key 'external' peak at 1922.80 recorded on June 1.