If you followed the simple instruction I put out Thursday night, which flouted a ballistic rally, you got short using a 94.50-point trigger interval when the futures fell to x=4297.60. Thereafter, you would have covered half the position at 4203.10 on the subsequent decline to just beneath that Hidden Pivot midpoint support. The theoretical gain would have been $9450, enough to provide a substantial cushion to help you manage the remaining risk. The fully-corrected target is D=4014.30, which, if achieved, would yield an additional profit of $18,890, for a total gain of $28,340. However, if the bull market in gold is still intact, the futures should bounce to new highs from p=4203.10 rather than continue lower. Alternatively, they could fall to p2=4108.70 before reversing, so you should be alert to this possibility if you are still short. Most immediately, I'll suggest an 'impulsive' stop-loss at 4332.30, just above a minor peak created Friday on the way down. _______ UPDATE (Oct 21, 10:07 p.m.): Gold was overdue for a brutal correction, so no one should have been surprised by this one. My hunch is that it is already over. I posted a 4020.20 retracement target in the chat room this morning when the futures were up around 4200.00. They subsequently dove to a 4021.20 bottom that came within $1.00 (!) of my target. Anyone who used my Hidden Pivot support to get long could have racked up a same-day profit of as much as $11,300 per contract, since the bounce has reached 4133.80 so far. Gold is currently trading for 4130.80, having given up little of the rebound. Let's see if it has bottomed.
After a cage fight with a 'hidden' resistance I'd flagged at 4178.00, the futures appear to be back on track for a rendezvous with 4128.10, an important target that has kept us confidently bullish for the last 300 hundred points of the rally. The 5020.20 target of an even larger pattern will be in play if 4178.10 is decisively exceeded, especially on first contact. The chart shows a minor 'reverse' pattern with an outstanding target at 4076.50. Although this falls somewhat shy of 4128.00, it shows that buyers are on a smooth glide path that featured a stress-free 'mechanical' buy on Friday at the green line (x=3987.30. If you've wondered how to get aboard with gold taking only quick, shallow breathers, this chart shows the way. _______ UPDATE (Oct 13, 10:38 p.m.): Bulls vaporized a 4128.00 target that had looked rock-solid last week, and now they appear to have a lock on a minimum 4196.10. Expect the target to be reached over the next 1-3 days. Beware of resistance at exactly 4168.20, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of A=3663.70, but once the December contract is above it, you can raise your expectations to at least 4273.30, or to 4378.40 if any higher. You can also use a pullback to 4063.00 to get long 'mechanically', stop 3957.00. The bullish pattern from which these numbers were derived starts with A=3660.50 on the daily chart on 9/18. _______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 1:19 a.m. EDT): The current upthrust overshot the 4378.40 target flagged above by just 0.3%, so it's hardly crazy to infer that a top of at least middling importance might be in or very close. You can use a 94.50 trigger interval to get short to test this theory on paper, but trade it only if you were long for at least a $10,000-per-contract
Bulls didn't exactly impale the 3668.10 midpoint pivot, but they have surpassed it with such graceful ease that there should be little doubt that the 4128.10 target shown in the chart will be achieved. A punitive pullback to the green line (x=3428.00), however unlikely, would enable a superb bottom-fishing opportunity. Still another may develop at the red line after the futures have touched the secondary Hidden Pivot at 3898.10. Above 4128 sits just one more target that can be extrapolated from the long-term chart: 5020.20. The significance of this number will grow if we see a stall at 4071.80, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance to which it is related. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3): December Gold ascended to within less than $1 of the 3898.10 target flagged above as the week began, but the correction to 3820 was over quickly and reversed with a probing rally that has yet to top 3923. None of this has changed the very bullish outlook detailed above. Most immediately, expect a stab to 3967.90, a minor Hidden Pivot resistance that can be used as a minimum upside projection as the new week begins. We'll also want to pay particular attention if and when 4071.80 is reached, for reasons noted above.
The riff-raff were out in force last week, frontrunning the 3751.30 target of the too-obvious pattern shown in the chart. Coy as ever, the futures turned lower from a peak that fell 7 points shy of the target, a well-defined Hidden Pivot. Looking ahead, there are three possibilities to consider: 1) the gallimaufry gets sucked in by a marginal feint above the high; 2) the futures surpass the peak and keep on going; or 3) a significant correction paves the way for a new burst of exuberance. I rate #3 the most likely, although that wouldn't preclude a head-fake first to a marginal new high. The healthiest and most bullish scenario I could imagine would begin with a pullback to 3520.70, a midpoint Hidden Pivot that could be bottom-fished aggressively with a tight stop. That number is based on the record 3714.00 high remaining intact. However, it would need to be adjusted by the incremental amount of any new top that occurs in the week(s) ahead. If a correction is starting that trounces the 3520.70 support, expect it to continue down to at least 3424.10, or to 3327.40 if any lower. These numbers would also be subject to a 1:1 revision if the futures take out last week's high. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 3:15 p.m. EDT): It didn’t take long for gold bulls to show their hand. Today’s hyperdrive rally has set the December Comex contract on a path to at least 4128.10, a Hidden Pivot that lies 345 points, or 9%, above current levels. There is no room for debate or doubt, as far as I’m concerned. The move must be traded with small-pattern ‘triggers’ to limit risk, since powerful trends attract crowds that cannot but beat their own brains in and cause the rally to become diabolically evasive
Switching from the November contract to the December yields a somewhat higher target at 3751.20. Like the earlier target at 3719.70, this one looks likely to be reached. However, the odds of an overshoot have improved by a tad. That's because the futures spent a whole week consolidating just beneath the 'D' target, which would be a lot of work just to produce a marginal pop to a new high a mere $36 above the previous one. Regardless, we'll be ready to get short there cautiously, since the pattern is compelling, even if too obvious to predict a top precisely. UPDATE (Sep 18, 12:08 a.m. EDT): Fed “news” caused the futures to head-fake to 3744.00, slightly above yesterday’s all-time high. Having frightened themselves with this breakout, traders then retreated $64 to leave our short offer unfilled. The target remains valid, although it is no longer a good bet for us.
Following a sharp run-up to new record highs earlier in the week, October Gold has begun a retracement that looks likely to continue down to at least 3522.40 [corrected], the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown; or to as low as 3433.90 if any lower. The pivot is a logical spot to attempt bottom-fishing with a tight stop loss. Specifically, you should use a reverse-pattern trigger interval (TI) of 3.0 points or less on the 15-minute chart if the futures fall into the range 3521.20=3522.50. If you are unfamiliar with this tactic, you should use your own method of risk management to limit entry exposure to no more than $150 per contract. _______ UPDATE (Sep 5, 4:04 p.m. EDT): The futures dipped no lower than 3544 before taking off again like a bat out of hell. This left our niggardly bid choking on dust, but not without heightening our awareness that getting aboard to augment long positions will require more aggressive bidding. In the meantime, you should use 3719.70 as a minimum upside projection for the near term. A pullback to 3448.90, however unlikely, can be bought 'mechanically' with a stop-loss at 3358.60.
Gold futures are ascending for the umpteenth time into a zone of multiple peaks that resemble the Denver airport. Are they finally breaking out? It would seem that way, but we should be cautious nonetheless, since every rally since last May has ended in disappointment. Gold hasn’t exactly fallen apart on the pullbacks, which added to our confidence in bullion’s long-term prospects. However, if this is a breakout we’ve been waiting for, we should be careful what we wish for, since it very likely means the 16-year-old bull market in stocks is over and that the Trumpster is in for some rough sledding. Looking just ahead, the futures should be presumed bound for at least p2=3584.30 if they poke decisively above the 3503.70 top recorded on August 8. _______ UPDATE (Aug 31, 1:40 p.m.): No change in my outlook, although it is interesting that gold is threatening to break out just as the stock market turned unusually sickly last week. My hunch is that the global economic crisis that has been brewing for decades will give bullion's bull market dramatic force. The first evidence of this we would see on the chart is a breakout above 3503.70, as noted above. If decisive, that would put the October contract on a path to 3719.70 We should know by the end of the week whether gold is just screwing with our heads yet again.
October Gold took off last week from a low that missed our stingy bid by $9, or 0.2%. Friday's rally in bullion was of a piece with lunatic buying in stocks triggered by blather from Powell. However, I don't see gold as being on the verge of a melt-up like the one I'm predicting for stocks. I've highlighted Friday's rally to show how insignificant it was amidst four months of meaningless dithering. Yes, the move could conceivably turn into something worth watching. But there is little point in getting all het-up about it now. When that finally happens, the futures should be presumed on their way to 3710.70.
October Gold's latest relapse has brought it down to within easy distance of the 3317.70 Hidden Pivot support I'd said would provide a risk-averse buying opportunity. At the least, the target will have spared you the pain of trying to bottom-fish this brick as it began to fall from 150 points higher. The pattern I used to project a tradable low is sufficiently gnarly that a turn from very near the target is likely. Typically, I use 'reverse pattern' triggers to reduce entry risk to relative pocket change on trades that go against the trend. Since this tactic could require course corrections in real time, however, I can only suggest that you bottom-fish using your own risk-management methods. If the Hidden Pivot works, the futures should reverse from within no more than 4 to 5 points of 3317.70. If one assumes the turn will come from within a point or less of the target, it's possible to fashion a trigger on the one- or three-minute chart that limits entry risk to less than $100 per contract.
Gold went all nitwitty at week's end on tariff news that threatened to disrupt the placid and predictable ho-hummery of the last four months. On the daily chart, the move looks like just another peak to add to a series of three highs that have contained rallies since May. However, a closer inspection reveals that the new peak slightly exceeded the others. This means that gold has broken out, and although we shouldn't be surprised if it slips back into its accustomed wallow, we should treat a pullback as a corrective set-up for another leg up. Let's be ready to bottom-fish at 3410.70 just in case, since that is a midpoint Hidden Pivot support (a=3478.50 on 7/23) where a turn-up would be most likely to occur. A reverse-pattern trigger is preferable for entry, but you shouldn't need a stop-loss wider than 1.50 points. ________ UPDATE (11:13 p.m. EDT): A 1.50-point stop-loss would have gotten tagged shortly after sellers hit the red line, but a reverse-pattern trigger generated an entry signal at 3407.40 and a profitable exit on half at 3412.20 (60m, a=3418.00 on 8/8/). You're on your own if you're still in the trade, but don't be greedy, since the decisive breach of p was bearish. ______ UPDATE (Aug 12, 10:26 a.m.): Gold is being made to look like garbage by sovereign buyers and bullion bankers who want it most. Most immediately, expect this manufactured plunge to hit 3317.70, a well-masked Hidden Pivot that can be bottom-fished with a tight reverse trigger.
