Gold

The 4001.70 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown perfectly caught the recent low, but if it gets decisively breached, that would open a path down to p2=3877.50, or even to D=3753.3. My bias is mildly bearish for the near term because the downtrend has been in force since before Halloween. Below 4001.70, the best chance bulls would have to turn things around would be at 3976.30, the d target of a smaller reverse pattern (or d=4011.30, basis February). Chances for an upturn there are good enough that I'll recommend bottom-fishing to subscribers who know how to craft a 'camouflage' trigger, a simple trick that I detailed in the chat room not long ago. (It also went out via email to everyone whose 'E-Mail Notifications' feature is checked in the account dashboard.) _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 12:35 p.m.): Assuming Feb Gold catches up to Jan Silver, the weekly chart (A=3234.00 on 5/16/25) implies more upside over the near term to at least 4529.70. A stall there would validate a pattern that projects to as high as 5126.10. 

Friday's carnage left the futures on track for a likely relapse to the 3976.20 target shown in the chart.  A bullish alternative would start with a rally exceeding Friday's intraday high at 4215.10. New record highs would become an odds-on bet at that height. Because the reverse pattern yielding the 3976.20 target, a Hidden Pivot support, is not obvious, bottom-fishing there is recommended. I'd suggest using a 'camo' trigger from a lesser intraday chart to do this, however, since there are several prior lows to the left that are likely to attract competition from overly eager buyers, some of whom are as clever as we are. ________ UPDATE (Nov 18, 10:29 p.m.): Buyers came back to life, giving the futures a possible reprieve. The uptrend projects to 4144.60, and a pullback to 4034.20 can be bought with a 3997.00 stop-loss. The rally will still need to exceed 4215.10 to tell us that bulls are ready for a charge to new record highs. _______ UPDATE (Nov 20, 9:03 a.m.): The futures have rallied as high as 4096 after lightly kissing the bid I'd suggested above at 4034.20 with a 4034.00 low. The subsequent rally could have produced a profit of more than $6000 per contract, but I have not established a tracking position because no one mentioned it in the chat room. The 4144.60 target has yet to be achieved, and the effort is not pretty to watch, but it remains valid nonetheless as a minimum objective.

I don't usually post charts that display more than a single ABCD pattern, but the one shown gives a clear picture of how very unclear gold traders and investors are at the moment. Neither the large bearish pattern nor the small bullish one produced a decisive move through p, muddying the question of whether the next significant move will be up or down. Bears have a slight edge, I'd say, but it's based on technical trivia that's not worth explaining. For now, the worst-case target if the futures break down is still 3802.60, representing a 5% drop on top of the 8.5% loss since October 20, when Gold recorded an all-time high at 4398. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 12:47 p.m. EST):  The futures have broken out above late October's peaks. Trust this rally when it pushes above more important peaks ranging up to 4175.00 recorded between Oct 22-26.

Bulls won last week's teeter-totter competition, but not by much. They held the line against sellers on Friday with a rally into the close that averted a fall to the red line (p=3932.60) after a theoretical sell signal was triggered. Now they will need to negate the bearish pattern by rallying above C=4059.90. If the effort fails, however, p would still be an enticing place to attempt bottom fishing with a tightly crafted 'camo' trigger.  Price action there will also give us a reliable means of assessing trend strength, since a decisive breach of the 'hidden support' would imply that further slippage is likely. ________ UPDATE (Nov 6, 7:50 a.m. EST): Gold has been spasming tediously sideways for eight days, but it looks ready to push above the 4059.90 top of the range to a 4068.00 Hidden Pivot target (30m, A=3934.20 on 10/29).  It will need to decisively exceed that resistance, however, to signal the possible resumption of the long-term bull market. A more critical, conventional resistance lies at 4175.00 in the form of a daunting series of peaks, the highest of which is 4175.00.  Bottom line: bulls have plenty of work to do to get back on track. If they fail, my worst-case correction target would be 3802.60.

The 'reverse' pattern shown has worked perfectly so far, triggering no fewer than three consecutive trades that produced a profit. The first was a conventional long at the green line, followed by a short at the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 4172.70.  The last, an easy winner initiated as a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=4071,70), remained 'live' as the week ended. This series of winners strongly implies that December Gold will achieve the 4223.20 target shown. The futures would become a compelling short at that price, assuming you've made some money on the way up and that you know how to limit entry risk to small change. I have one outstanding target at 5020 that was identified here earlier. Its provenance is not nearly as clear as the targets we've been using, however, and that's why I am going to stick with the lesser charts for the foreseeable future. If the current move should impale d=4223.20, that would open up a clear path to at least 4351.30, a tad beneath the old high at 4398; or to 4461.30 if any higher.  (For a detailed discussion of a somewhat bigger picture, see my 13:51 post in the chat room on Saturday.) _____  UPDATE (Oct 29, 11:28 a.m. EDT): While we were waiting, a $10,000 trade dropped neatly into our lap. See the chat room thread from yesterday and this morning for precise details.  _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 6:50 p.m.): I used a big-picture chart in the chat room last Saturday to lend perspective to a discussion about gold's so-far mild correction. EWT forecasters appear to disagree about where and when the retracement will end. Since then, a lesser chart using Hidden Pivot levels has evolved to suggest the correction could already be over. This interpretation would be strengthened by a pop

If you followed the simple instruction I put out Thursday night, which flouted a ballistic rally, you got short using a 94.50-point trigger interval when the futures fell to x=4297.60. Thereafter, you would have covered half the position at 4203.10 on the subsequent decline to just beneath that Hidden Pivot midpoint support. The theoretical gain would have been $9450, enough to provide a substantial cushion to help you manage the remaining risk.  The fully-corrected target is D=4014.30, which, if achieved, would yield an additional profit of $18,890, for a total gain of  $28,340. However, if the bull market in gold is still intact, the futures should bounce to new highs from p=4203.10 rather than continue lower. Alternatively, they could fall to p2=4108.70 before reversing, so you should be alert to this possibility if you are still short.  Most immediately, I'll suggest an 'impulsive' stop-loss at 4332.30, just above a minor peak created Friday on the way down. _______ UPDATE (Oct 21, 10:07 p.m.): Gold was overdue for a brutal correction, so no one should have been surprised by this one.  My hunch is that it is already over.  I posted a 4020.20 retracement target in the chat room this morning when the futures were up around 4200.00. They subsequently dove to a 4021.20 bottom that came within $1.00 (!) of my target. Anyone who used my Hidden Pivot support to get long could have racked up a same-day profit of as much as $11,300 per contract, since the bounce has reached 4133.80 so far. Gold is currently trading for 4130.80, having given up little of the rebound. Let's see if it has bottomed.

After a cage fight with a 'hidden' resistance I'd flagged at 4178.00, the futures appear to be back on track for a rendezvous with 4128.10, an important target that has kept us confidently bullish for the last 300 hundred points of the rally. The 5020.20 target of an even larger pattern will be in play if 4178.10 is decisively exceeded, especially on first contact.  The chart shows a minor 'reverse' pattern with an outstanding target at 4076.50. Although this falls somewhat shy of 4128.00, it shows that buyers are on a smooth glide path that featured a stress-free 'mechanical' buy on Friday at the green line (x=3987.30. If you've wondered how to get aboard with gold taking only quick, shallow breathers, this chart shows the way. _______ UPDATE (Oct 13, 10:38 p.m.):  Bulls vaporized a 4128.00 target that had looked rock-solid last week, and now they appear to have a lock on a minimum 4196.10. Expect the target to be reached over the next 1-3 days. Beware of resistance at exactly 4168.20, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of A=3663.70, but once the December contract is above it, you can raise your expectations to at least 4273.30, or to 4378.40 if any higher. You can also use a pullback to 4063.00 to get long 'mechanically', stop 3957.00.  The bullish pattern from which these numbers were derived starts with A=3660.50 on the daily chart on 9/18. _______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 1:19 a.m. EDT):  The current upthrust overshot the 4378.40 target flagged above by just 0.3%, so it's hardly crazy to infer that a top of at least middling importance might be in or very close. You can use a 94.50 trigger interval to get short to test this theory on paper, but trade it only if you were long for at least a $10,000-per-contract

Bulls didn't exactly impale the 3668.10 midpoint pivot, but they have surpassed it with such graceful ease that there should be little doubt that the 4128.10 target shown in the chart will be achieved. A punitive pullback to the green line (x=3428.00), however unlikely, would enable a superb bottom-fishing opportunity. Still another may develop at the red line after the futures have touched the secondary Hidden Pivot at 3898.10.  Above 4128 sits just one more target that can be extrapolated from the long-term chart:  5020.20.  The significance of this number will grow if we see a stall at 4071.80, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance to which it is related. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3):  December Gold ascended to within less than $1 of the 3898.10 target flagged above as the week began, but the correction to 3820 was over quickly and reversed with a probing rally that has yet to top 3923.  None of this has changed the very bullish outlook detailed above. Most immediately, expect a stab to 3967.90, a minor Hidden Pivot resistance that can be used as a minimum upside projection as the new week begins.  We'll also want to pay particular attention if and when 4071.80 is reached, for reasons noted above.

The riff-raff were out in force last week, frontrunning the 3751.30 target of the too-obvious pattern shown in the chart. Coy as ever, the futures turned lower from a peak that fell 7 points shy of the target, a well-defined Hidden Pivot.  Looking ahead, there are three possibilities to consider: 1) the gallimaufry gets sucked in by a marginal feint above the high; 2) the futures surpass the peak and keep on going; or 3) a significant correction paves the way for a new burst of exuberance. I rate #3 the most likely, although that wouldn't preclude a head-fake first to a marginal new high.  The healthiest and most bullish scenario I could imagine would begin with a pullback to 3520.70, a midpoint Hidden Pivot that could be bottom-fished aggressively with a tight stop. That number is based on the record 3714.00 high remaining intact. However, it would need to be adjusted by the incremental amount of any new top that occurs in the week(s) ahead. If a correction is starting that trounces the 3520.70 support, expect it to continue down to at least 3424.10, or to 3327.40 if any lower. These numbers would also be subject to a 1:1 revision if the futures take out last week's high. _______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 3:15 p.m. EDT):  It didn’t take long for gold bulls to show their hand. Today’s hyperdrive rally has set the December Comex contract on a path to at least 4128.10, a Hidden Pivot that lies 345 points, or 9%, above current levels. There is no room for debate or doubt, as far as I’m concerned. The move must be traded with small-pattern ‘triggers’ to limit risk, since powerful trends attract crowds that cannot but beat their own brains in and cause the rally to become diabolically evasive