Gold

The small poke through our longstanding Hidden Pivot target at 3040.90 implies prices will continue higher, notwithstanding occasional shakedowns by the sleazeball who control bullion markets.  Although I recently billboarded an ambitious target at 3533 to lift your imagination, a more immediate prospect is 3198.70, the 'D' target of a smaller pattern. A pullback to 2932.80 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy signal, but the 2844.00 stop-loss is unacceptably large.  Use a 'camouflage' trigger for this one, meaning an entry set-up crafted from 15-minute charts or lower once 2932.80 has been touched.

Once again, we return to a familiar target at 3040.90 that has kept us on the right side of the trend since late 2024, when there were nagging doubts.  I could have done with a little more consolidation before the April contract broke out of a fraught range last week, but I don't have much control over such things; I only try to see them coming. The daily chart suggests possible success bottom-fishing a moderate pullback to 2958.30 as the week begins.  I put out a target last week at 3230 that came from a 'blended' monthly chart, but let's upgrade that to the 3533.90 target shown. A stall precisely at p=3037.70 would help validate the pattern. It would also set up a promising 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x=2789.60 once the futures have reached the sweet spot between p and p2.

I don't usually discard the old tout when I update during the week, but this time I'll make an exception for the sake of clarity. The original tout was wishy-washy bullish, but the new one keys off a chart with no wiggle room.  The April contract appears certain to fall to the 2876.40 midpoint Hidden Pivot support.  That will be an opportune spot to try bottom-fishing with the tightest stop-loss you can construct. (It should be no wider than 2872.40 in any case.) However, if it doesn't hold, and especially if the futures close for two consecutive days below it or trade lower than 2862, expect more slippage to D=2811.40.  The obviousness of the pattern will work against its providing perfectly precise reversal points, but they should be good enough for government work because the pattern, with a very kosher A-B impulse leg, is so compelling. ______ UPDATE (Mar 12, 4:42 p.m.): April Gold has rallied robustly over the last two days, but I doubt that it is about to take out the old high at 2974.00 straightaway. A 'voodoo' resistance at 2961.50 could test this theory, but if the futures relapse instead, look for the selling to hit 2884.00, at least. That is the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a conventional pattern drawn from the top, with a D target at 2819.00.

Gold's last bounce originated in a healthy spot, the 2844 midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the corrective pattern shown. A decisive plunge through that level would imply more slippage to as low as d=2714.7, but there is nothing in the price action of the last two weeks to suggest that is likely. The April contract may need to consolidate some more before it can attempt a push to new record highs above 2974.00, but even a mellow dip beneath 2844 would not spoil the bullish picture. If the futures were to fall to 2714 nonetheless, that would be an opportune spot to load up the truck.

Gold had a brush with serious injury on Friday when it touched a 2844.10 midpoint Hidden Pivot support associated with a worst-case 'd' target at 2714.10.  The April contract took a robust bounce to end the week, but a retest of the support is likely. It would require two consecutive weekly closes below p=2844.10, however, to imply that more downside to D awaits. Regardless, the futures were a good bet for bottom-fishing near Friday's lows. Immediate potential was to 2876.60 (30m, a= 2903.30 on 2/26), or 2889.10 if any higher. If an upthrust decisively penetrates that last Hidden Pivot resistance, it would imply that bulls have regained control of gold. Alternatively, a crushing fall through 2844.10 would portend more slippage to at least 2779.10.

We've used 3040.90 as a minimum upside target for the bull cycle that began last summer, but let's be prepared for a possible top somewhat below it, at 2992.50. This Hidden Pivot resistance is derived from a pattern with a somewhat higher point of origin. Conjecture favors reaching the higher target, since the so-far 12-day consolidation off the recent high would seem sufficient to push the futures more than the 20 additional points needed to reach 2992.50. We needn't play defense, however, since it will be possible to attempt shorting there without risking more than relative pocket change. ______ UPDATE (Feb 25, 7:54): As noted above, there are outstanding rally targets for Comex April Gold at, respectively, 2992.50 and 3040.90 (an oldie). Despite gold’s stall, they remain viable, but I'll use February 12's 2886.50 low as a fail-safe point. Any slippage beneath this number would be warning that bullion prices are about to come down with the broad averages. _______ UPDATE (Feb 27, 12:58 p.m.): This morning’s breach of my ‘fail-safe’ number in gold (see my last update) portends more slippage in the April contract, currently quoted at 2894.25, to at least 2853.50. If that Hidden Pivot support fails, bet on 2813.50 as a worst-case target for the near term (i.e., 2-5 days). You can buy there aggressively with a tight stop-loss, but there are no guarantees the bounce will get legs.

April Gold stalled last week en route to an important rally target at 3040.90 that will remain viable if the futures don't slip beneath 2586. You should be prepared to bid or bottom-fish aggressively at the midpoint Hidden Pivot, 2838,60, with a tight stop-loss or a small reverse-pattern trigger. If the expected pullback crushes the support, that would open a path down to as low as d=2708.60, equivalent to a correction of 8.7%. The futures would still have a chance to turn around at 2773.60, the pattern's 'secondary Hidden Pivot support'.

A 3040.90 rally target proffered here earlier remains viable, although we should be prepared for a possible stall at 2927.40, a 'secondary' Hidden Pivot. If buyers fist-pump their way through it, that would firm the case for a follow-through to at least 3040.90. The target might not work precisely because of the pattern's murky origins in a clutter of possible starting points. It is good enough for government work, however, and has kept us on the right side of the trend even when bullion was getting slammed by the white-shoe hoodlums who run the show. The ascent to 3040.90 could be relatively steep, since the breakout two weeks ago blew the cover of central banks and others who had been quietly accumulating gold after it stalled in November and traded in a range for several months.

Last week's decisive breakout above the 2791.90 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart all but clinches a follow-through to at least p2=2905.30, and thence to an almost as likely D target at 3018.70.  (The April equivalents are, respectively, 2927.40 and 3040.90.) A pullback in the meantime to the green line (x=2678, or 2700.30, basis April), however unlikely, would offer the juiciest 'mechanical' buying opportunity we've seen in a long while. More immediately, you should expect a potentially tradable stall at 2854.80 (2883, basis April), my minimum upside target for the near term. The usual imbeciles are attributing the breakout to Trump's tariff plans, whatever they might be, but also to a run on London bullion inventories by presumptive buyers in China and India, and to many other sovereign entities that evidently want to be prepared if this already-too-interesting world should turn still more interesting. There is as yet little evidence that the spike in demand for gold has fed into Bitcoin. True disbelievers in the latter's value and potential should consider betting the spread will widen, but don't expect Michael Saylor and his ilk to fade you till their heads cave in.