Gold futures have taken a nasty hit since topping on October 30 within 1.60 of a well-advertised Hidden Pivot target of mine at 2803.40. Even so, the downdraft has yet to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart by exceeding two prior lows. That would occur with a print at 2618.70, but even then, its putative power could be diminished if the bounce from Thursday's low gets a little more loft. We'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt as the new week begins by assuming a 'mechanical' buy at the red line produces a big winner. The target would be 2940.10 (see inset), and the initial stop-loss would be at 2546.70. Please note that the trade has yet to trigger, since the selloff has gone no lower than 2650.30. Paper-trade this one only if your Hidden Pivot chops are up to snuff. _______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 12:08 p.m.): This morning's avalanche brought the futures down to the red line, so I'll suggest using a $17 trigger interval to get long. This is bigger than I would prefer, but it will diminish the chance of a false signal. With a so-far low of 2619.20, the 'buy' signal would occur on a 2636.20 print. Your first profit-taking objective would be at p=2653.20, where d=2687.20 (60-min, a=2650.30 on 11/6). This is a paper trade for all but the most intrepid Pivoteers. I am mainly interested in determining whether bullion has topped for the long term. The trade set-up I am suggesting is a good way to answer that question, and a rally that exceeds 'd' would imply the answer is 'no'. Alternatively, if the rally dies at 'p', that would be a very discouraging sign.
Comex Gold hasn't fully corrected to a D/d target in nearly two years, so we'll be watching closely to see whether it does so this time. That would require more downside to d=2525.80 of the rABC pattern shown, equating to a 10% correction off the recent top. (It was precisely foreseen here back in September with the futures trading $300 lower). A 10% retracement would not be unusual for the steep, prolonged run-up bullion has enjoyed since September 2023. And here's some potentially good news: there is a small (i.e., 25%) chance today's low at 2660.70 will be as bad as it gets, since that's a hair from a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 2663.80 shown in the chart. I doubt bulls will get off that easy, however, and expect the selloff to continue down to at least the secondary pivot (p2) at 2594.80. As always, a decisive penetration of a Hidden Pivot on first contact would imply more slippage to the next, in this case to d=2525.80. An easy penetration of that target would be unwelcome news, since it could spell the end of the bull market begun in 1999 from around $240.
The futures have sold off $60 so far after coming within a hair of a 2803.40 target I'd been drum-rolling since September. The yellow flag is out, but there is still a higher target outstanding at 2940.10 that should be held in mind, even if the correction continues for another $250. However unlikely, that would bring the December contract down to the green line, triggering a 'mechanical' buy that would provide juicy odds for bottom-fishing. More immediately, the first chance this vehicle will have to regain traction is at 2711.30, my minimum downside objective for the near term (daily chart, a= 2708.70 on 9-26). If that Hidden Pivot support fails, look for the retracement to come into the thicket of October's consolidation zone, between 2640 and 2690. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 7:15 p.m. ET): Comex Gold hasn't fully corrected to a D (conventional) or d (reverse-pattern) target in nearly two years, so we'll be watching closely to see whether it does so this time. That would require more downside to d=2525,80 of the rABC pattern shown, equating to a 10% correction off the recent top. (It was precisely predicted here back in September with the futures trading $300 lower). A 10% retracement would not be unusual to correct the steep, prolonged run-up bullion has enjoyed since September 2023. There is also a small possibility that today's low at 2759.50 will be as bad as it gets, since that is just slightly below the 2663.80 Hidden Pivot midpoint support shown in the chart. I doubt bulls will get off that easy, however, and expect the selloff to continue down to at least the secondary pivot (p2=2594.80). As always, a decisive penetration of that Hidden Pivot on first contact would imply more slippage to the next, in this case d=2525.80. An easy
The December contract has been a good bet to reach the 2803.40 target since September 12, when it blew past p=2576.75, retested it a week later, then never looked back. However, the pattern is sufficiently clear and compelling to temper our enthusiasm when the target is reached. Recall that we have always felt great, looking for more, just as gold was topping. A tradeable high looks likely at 2803 even if it proves not to mark an important top. We should treat it as such unless buyers impale it on first contact. Alternatively, if the December contract closes for two consecutive days above 2803, you can assume it is bound for at least 2940 (A=1933 on 10/6/23).
A 2803.40 rally target we've used for months should be achieved on or before the November election. The cycle that launched December Gold on its way to this Hidden Pivot resistance began last February from 2070.60. The smooth flow of the weekly chart belies the psychological difficulty of staying on board, since Mr Slammy did his best to scare investors away with nasty swoons along the way. This made them skittish about buying into strength, which lightened the rallies of would-be sellers. Looking just ahead, a pullback to the red line (p=2576.70), however unlikely, would trigger a 'mechanical buy, stop 2501.10.
Although it seems like gold is getting whacked by the bad guys every time we turn around, no pullback since June, when the futures embarked on the C-D leg of the pattern shown, has given us the one-level pullback we might have used to get long 'mechanically'. It is a powerful rally, to be sure, and there's still another 150 points of likely upside before the futures hit anything solid. The 2803.20 Hidden Pivot target has served us well, keeping us on the right side of the trend no matter what doubters were saying. If you're keen on augmenting a long position, stay close to the chat room and let your timely needs be known. FYI, Friday's high stalled just shy of an external peak at 2679.20 (60m, 10-7), so the yellow flag will be out when trading resumes late Sunday afternoon.
December Gold remains nicely on track for a move to at least 2803.40, the 'D' Hidden Pivot resistance shown in the chart. As noted earlier, the futures should be presumed headed to 2940.10 if they push past the lower resistance easily. I doubt this will happen, however, given the month-long stall at p=2576.70. I also doubt that buyers are ready to embark on a move capable of replicating the steepness of the A-B leg, and we may see a dip beneath Sep 30's 2646.20 low to give the next rally more running room. In any case, trading can be done using reverse patterns on the lesser charts that go back as little as 4-6 days.
Gold's ballistic ascent over the last three weeks has left doubters choking on dust. It has also practically clinched a further run-up to our longstanding target at 2803.40, a Hidden Pivot equivalent to one at 2771 that we used for the October contract. Although it's useful to have a 'guarantee' that a rally target will be reached, a drawback is that the uptrend has been too strong to give us the one-level pullback we require to craft low-risk 'mechanical' entries. They are possible nonetheless on charts of lesser degree, but the opportunities tend to arise during the day or before dawn in NYC. For that reason, you should stay close to the chat room if you trade this vehicle or want to augment a long-term position. If you're wondering how sliding 'A' down to October 6's 1933.00 low would change the outlook, here's a Hidden Pivot rally target to hitch your wagon to: 2940.10.
The 2771.0 rally target we've been using for the October contract works out to be 2803.40 for the December. Price action at the 2576 midpoint resistance (p) has been sufficiently encouraging that upside to at least D looks like an 80% bet. Since the initial upside penetration of this Hidden Pivot, the futures have remained above it, so far with little evident strain. It looks, feels and smells like a consolidation, and so our trading bias should remain aggressively bullish in the days and weeks ahead, particularly if Mr Slammy (i.e., the crooks, pederasts and devil-worshipers who manipulate the gold price) should attempt to frighten bulls with a gratuitous takedown.
If anyone doubted gold is headed to the 2771.00 target touted here earlier, their skepticism should have been dispelled by Friday's close at the intraday high, well above the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 2549.30. The previous day's close was above it as well, further shortening the odds that the target will be achieved, and possibly exceeded. Price action has been squirrelly enough with so many skeptics sitting on the sidelines, but we might expect the trend to turn even more evasive now that 'everyone' wants to be on the same side of the trade. Trends that are easy to exploit don't exist, so don't be surprised at whatever gold does to fool the majority. If I were Mr. Market, I would screw laggards and doubters by accelerating the upthrust, giving them yet another reason to remain on the sidelines as they wait for better prices. Bargains have come all too frequently since April, often in our faces, but you can bet that has changed.
