Gold

The December contract has been a good bet to reach the 2803.40 target since September 12, when it blew past p=2576.75, retested it a week later, then never looked back. However, the pattern is sufficiently clear and compelling to temper our enthusiasm when the target is reached.  Recall that we have always felt great, looking for more, just as gold was topping. A tradeable high looks likely at 2803 even if it proves not to mark an important top.  We should treat it as such unless buyers impale it on first contact. Alternatively, if the December contract closes for two consecutive days above 2803, you can assume it is bound for at least 2940 (A=1933 on 10/6/23).

A 2803.40 rally target we've used for months should be achieved on or before the November election. The cycle that launched December Gold on its way to this Hidden Pivot resistance began last February from 2070.60. The smooth flow of the weekly chart belies the psychological difficulty of staying on board, since Mr Slammy did his best to scare investors away with nasty swoons along the way. This made them skittish about buying into strength, which lightened the rallies of would-be sellers. Looking just ahead, a pullback to the red line (p=2576.70), however unlikely, would trigger a 'mechanical buy, stop 2501.10.

Although it seems like gold is getting whacked by the bad guys every time we turn around, no pullback since June, when the futures embarked on the C-D leg of the pattern shown, has given us the one-level pullback we might have used to get long 'mechanically'.  It is a powerful rally, to be sure, and there's still another 150 points of likely upside before the futures hit anything solid. The 2803.20 Hidden Pivot target has served us well, keeping us on the right side of the trend no matter what doubters were saying. If you're keen on augmenting a long position, stay close to the chat room and let your timely needs be known. FYI, Friday's high stalled just shy of an external peak at 2679.20 (60m, 10-7), so the yellow flag will be out when trading resumes late Sunday afternoon.

December Gold remains nicely on track for a move to at least 2803.40, the 'D' Hidden Pivot resistance shown in the chart. As noted earlier, the futures should be presumed headed to 2940.10 if they push past the lower resistance easily. I doubt this will happen, however, given the month-long stall at p=2576.70. I also doubt that buyers are ready to embark on a move capable of replicating the steepness of the A-B leg, and we may see a dip beneath Sep 30's 2646.20 low to give the next rally more running room. In any case, trading can be done using reverse patterns on the lesser charts that go back as little as 4-6 days.

Gold's ballistic ascent over the last three weeks has left doubters choking on dust. It has also practically clinched a further run-up to our longstanding target at 2803.40, a Hidden Pivot equivalent to one at 2771 that we used for the October contract.  Although it's useful to have a 'guarantee' that a rally target will be reached, a drawback is that the uptrend has been too strong to give us the one-level pullback we require to craft low-risk 'mechanical' entries. They are possible nonetheless on charts of lesser degree, but the opportunities tend to arise during the day or before dawn in NYC. For that reason, you should stay close to the chat room if you trade this vehicle or want to augment a long-term position. If you're wondering how sliding 'A' down to October 6's 1933.00 low would change the outlook, here's a Hidden Pivot rally target to hitch your wagon to: 2940.10.

The 2771.0 rally target we've been using for the October contract works out to be 2803.40 for the December. Price action at the 2576 midpoint resistance (p) has been sufficiently encouraging that upside to at least D looks like an 80% bet.  Since the initial upside penetration of this Hidden Pivot, the futures have remained above it, so far with little evident strain. It looks, feels and smells like a consolidation, and so our trading bias should remain aggressively bullish in the days and weeks ahead, particularly if Mr Slammy (i.e., the crooks, pederasts and devil-worshipers who manipulate the gold price) should attempt to frighten bulls with a gratuitous takedown.

If anyone doubted gold is headed to the 2771.00 target touted here earlier, their skepticism should have been dispelled by Friday's close at the intraday high, well above the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 2549.30. The previous day's close was above it as well, further shortening the odds that the target will be achieved, and possibly exceeded. Price action has been squirrelly enough with so many skeptics sitting on the sidelines, but we might expect the trend to turn even more evasive now that 'everyone' wants to be on the same side of the trade. Trends that are easy to exploit don't exist, so don't be surprised at whatever gold does to fool the majority. If I were Mr. Market, I would screw laggards and doubters by accelerating the upthrust, giving them yet another reason to remain on the sidelines as they wait for better prices.  Bargains have come all too frequently since April, often in our faces, but you can bet that has changed.

We've been using an ambitious rally target at 2771.70 (newly corrected) for months, but the wait has begun to impact the odds it will be reached any time soon.  The midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2549.30 has become a barrier to October Gold's upward progress, and there can be no guarantees the target will be achieved until such time as buyers push decisively past that number. So far, they have failed to breach it, having spent the last month screwing the pooch just below it.  A pullback to the green line (x=2438) may be needed to give the futures a rest and a running start. That would generate a 'mechanical' buy signal in theory, although it would not be strong because the pattern's C-D leg has dragged on for long enough to squander the bullish energy created by the A-B impulse leg. For now, though, the longer the futures hover just beneath p, the greater the chance they will relapse 50-100 points to regroup for another try. ______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 11:30 a.m.): No pullback or running start was necessary, since the futures have turned the 2549 midpoint Hidden Pivot into chop suey this morning. The move looks sufficiently powerful to all but guarantee a run-up to at least p2=2680.50 over the near term, and thence to the 2771.70 target flagged above.

Gold's ascent toward the 2760.70 target shown has paused in a logical place, at the p=2543.90 Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern. Although the strong push the futures got last February when they left the launching pad is reason to expect the target to be reached, we'll be better able to assess the odds once we've seen how buyers handle resistance at p. A stab through it would all but guarantee more upside to at least p2=2652.3, the secondary pivot. In the meantime, we should alert to the possibility of a correction to the green line, x=2435.40, since that would create an excellent 'mechanical' buying opportunity.