Gold

Mr. Slammy made his appearance late in the day after leaving the futures somewhat shy of the 2514.60 target that we used last week as a bull market lodestar. It will be achieved, rest assured, but not necessarily on our schedule. Friday afternoon's $100 slapdown from the top of a strong rally was so swift and punitive that one might think the solons who regulate the futures markets pass out awards for the most brazen heists by the criminals who control the markets. Their tracks have nonetheless provided a clear technical picture to guide our efforts in trading and positioning bullion. Expect the correction to come down to at least 2309.00, a Hidden Pivot midpoint support. We'll want to bottom-fish there, whether to augment positions or open new ones, so stay tuned to the chat room and/or your email notifications to keep apprised.

Although prayer can't hurt, I doubt that it can push June Gold past the 2356.90 target shown any time soon. With the futures peaking just $7 from this daunting Hidden Pivot on Friday, a correction is due soon. We should be prepared for a nasty one, too, since it has taken the June contract more than four years to get there. Even so, we should open our minds to the satisfying possibility that buyers will blow past D with ease. If that happens, accompanied by voracious, insatiable buying, our focus could shift hopefully toward $3000, gold bugs' next dream number. In the meantime, we can use this reverse pattern, with a tentative, worst-case pullback target at 1991.10, to exploit the trend confidently. We'll adjust everything upward if a new high occurs. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 12:54 a.m. EDT): Although the June futures have receded from this morning's 2372.50 peak, the $18 overshoot of so clear a target is significant and at least mildly bullish. When a big-pattern target has been exceeded, we usually look at the target of a smaller 'extension' pattern as an alternative. In this case, the lesser pattern's D target at 2367.50 has also been hit -- and somewhat exceeded -- implying gold should correct for perhaps 2-3 days. Here's the chart.  And if it doesn't?  Ordinarily, I would say June Gold's overshoot of $2372 is quite bullish. But I am all-too-conscious of the fact that subscribers are counting on me to avoid getting crushed if and when the pond scum that Spartacus refers to as 'Mr Slammy' makes his all-but-inevitable appearance. Greatly complicating things is Mr Market's propensity to fuck as many of us as possible, as often as He can. That could mean He continues to push the precious metals complex higher without rest, so that

The 2306.40 rally target we've been using for nearly a month looks like a lock-up at this point. April Gold's ascent has been so urgent that there was only one 'mechanical' opportunity to buy a pullback on the daily chart. That occurred with a dip that barely brushed the red line, never mind fell to the green one. Friday's stab above p2=2228.30 was further evidence that a run-up to D has become all but unavoidable. Even so, we should pay close attention to price action near 2290.80, the target of a much larger pattern on the weekly chart. Although I expect the futures to get past it, the closely coincident location of the two targets implies that an important top could form at the 2300 level. Note: The equivalent D target for August is 2344.60, _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 11:28 a.m.): The June contract is closing on a potentially VERY important target at 2356.90! Here's the chart.

The bullish pattern shown is somewhat gnarly, but there's nothing fancy about it, and there is no reason to think the 2306.20 target, which first appeared here a while ago, will not be reached. It should be held in mind as a minimum upside projection for the near term. A mechanical buy now at the red line is problematical, however, since the uptrend failed to touch p2 before it pulled back to the line. I doubt the correction will continue all the way down to the green line (x=2073.90), but that would  certainly present an appealing 'mechanical' buying opportunity.

I've made a finicky adjustment to the point A low that yields a slightly lower rally target at 2269.10. Months of tedium at p do not allow certitude about whether D will be reached, nor does the stall precisely at p2=2167; however, my gut feeling is that 2269.10 will work as a minimum upside target. If April Gold gets no lift from last week's soporific string of lows near 2159.40, the next place you could step in to buy with a tight stop-loss would be at 2116.00. That's the 'd' target of a small reverse pattern on the daily chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 21, 9:26 a.m.): The futures should be presumed bound for the 2306.20 target shown in this chart once they push decisively past the 2269.10 Hidden Pivot resistance noted above. 

Although I promoted a 2307 target here last week, I'm going to dial it back a little with the 2276.60 target of a larger pattern. For reasons of clarity alone, it should take precedence over the higher number, and therefore be viewed as a potential rally-stopper. In any case, resistances at both p and p2 were violated so brutally that there should be little doubt about using 2276.60 as a minimum upside projection. The rally was too steep even when it began early last week to catch an easy ride. The same conditions will likely obtain this week, so any attempt to get aboard would need to come from an intraday set-up on the lesser charts.

Friday's surge will face a test of resistance at 2106.80, the 'd' target of the reverse pattern shown. If the futures go just a little higher, exceeding the 'external' peak at 2118.00 recorded on December 28, that would generate a strong impulse leg and open up a path to as high as 2204.00.  The 'p' resistance associated with that target lies at 2105.80, meaning there are multiple 'hidden' impediments nearby that are going to put bulls' mettle to the test. A clean blast through all of these HPs will signal the tone change we've awaited since December. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 10:32 a.m.): As implied above, yesterday's blast through a tight cluster of 'hidden' resistances has put the futures on course for a run-up to at least 2204.00.  Here's another target, never broached here before: 2307.00.  It is derived from A=1861.70 on 10/6, and tied to p=2151.70, where a stall could occur. ______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 6:20 p.m.): The steep rally begun last Friday did in fact stall almost precisely at the 2150.70 Hidden Pivot identified in my last update. The pullback has been shallow so far, with no impact on the likelihood of D being reached.  ______ UPDATE (Mar 6, 5:20 p.m.): The little poke through p=2151.70 may not look like much, but it is quite bullish for two reasons: 1) at that price, there is double resistance from two p midpoints of different degree; and, 2) the futures have closed above the resistance on the first bar in which they encountered the resistance. If the futures close above 2151.70 for a second consecutive day, that would shorten the odds of a further run-up to 2307.00 to no worse than an even bet. 

The pattern shown, with a 2056.30 rally target, is not particularly bullish, but it looks serviceable for trading. A presumably corrective rally stalled Friday at 2026.40, the midpoint resistance, but any headway above it when the new week begins would imply the target is likely to be reached.  A 'mechanical' buy at the green line looks promising, but I'd suggest that you act only if the pullback has come from above p=2026.40, especially if it is exceeded decisively. _______ UPDATE (Feb 23): Last week's modest rally fell a few dollars shy of the 2056.30 target flagged above, but you can expect it to be reached within the next couple of days. It is shortable via a tight 'reverse pattern' for subscribers who are familiar with this tactic. The pattern can also be used for 'mechanical' buying at either p or x if the futures favor us with a swoon,

Ten mincing steps higher, one or two devastating steps back. That's the way gold rolls. It is such as nasty little sonofabitch that we can only infer Mr Market is intent on terminally discouraging every last bull before he lets it fly. The chart shown is short-term bearish, although not horrifically so. It suggests the futures are on their way down to at least 2017.50 most immediately. There's a chance it could catch a bounce at p2=2028.50, in which case you'll want to use a tight trigger interval of perhaps 2 points for bottom-fishing. Make sure it's tied visually to a clear 'a-b' leg on the 30-minute chart or less. There is also voodoo number just above p2 that I will leave to be discovered and used by hawk-eyed Pivoteers.