Silver

The futures tripped a promising 'mechanical' short on June 15 at 21.83, but we are just spectators, since no subscribers expressed an interest in the trade, let alone reported taking a position. The 19.64 target is valid and remains the worst-case scenario for the coming week, but it is no more likely to be reached than a comparable one in gold at 1756.90. You can try bottom-fishing at p2=20.37, which sits 5 points beneath May 13's important low. That would make it a 'discomfort zone' trade, and it can be snagged using a 'mechanical' setup on a lesser chart. ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 9:38 p.m.): Shifting to the September contract, this morning's breach of an important hidden support implies more downside to at least D=18.96 (daily, A= 26.65 on 4/18; B=22.21 on 5/2). If that Hidden Pivot, too, is splattered, we would need to move A-B down to the next to produced a new target at 18.06, a p2 'secondary pivot'.

Oil got pummeled as the week ended, but it is too early to tell whether the move will prove impulsive or merely corrective. Regardless, if the futures were to fall to the green line, that would trigger a 'mechanical' buy I would rate a fetching '7.7'. That implies the July contract would rebound to at least to p=114.33 before falling beneath C=88.53. The  longstanding target at 140.12 will remain viable until such time as C is breached. My hunch is that a reverse-pattern bid with the 'c' anchored near 107.00 would work if you are trying to bottom-fish a short-term low. ______ UPDATE (June 21, 9:42 a.m. EDT): Here's a chart for the August contract, with the green line relocated to 98.84.

July Silver futures tripped a 'mechanical' short last week similar to one in gold that went profitable the next day. The trade is predicated on a further fall to 19.64, but in theory taking a partial profit would be warranted at p=21.10. The initial move down to p breached this Hidden Pivot support but not by much, implying that the C-D follow-through leg currently in progress is less than certain to achieve the 19.64 target. We'll be better able to judge the odds of this once we've seen the downtrend interact for a second time with the pivot. For now, though, you can use p2=20.37 as a minimum downside objective.

July Silver tripped a promising short at the green line on May 27 that is showing s small profit.  Friday's swoon did not quite reach the red line (p=21.12) where half the position might have been covered 'by-the-book', but the trade still looks likely to work.  We'll be better able to judge how likely a further fall to D=18.90 is over the next few weeks, but the A-B impulse leg is steep enough to imply the target will be achieved. _____ UPDATE (Jun 16, 10:36): The short could have been covered for a $6600 profit at p=21.37, but if you still hold a partial position, exit now.

I'm using a more conservative pattern than in gold to project higher prices, since the May bottom at 20.42 was even more dispiriting than the corresponding one in AU.  So far, the most bullish thing you could say about the rally is that it did not give us an opportunity last week to bottom-fish 'mechanically' at the green line. On the other hand, penetration of p=22.17 to the upside has been tentative and labored so far, implying that even the relatively modest 'D' target at 29.93 is not a done deal. I will provide trading suggestions if there appears to be interest in bullion in the chat room, but I am available to vet your ideas in any case.

Like gold, silver did not reach a Hidden Pivot target on the last selloff, and so I've chosen to display a mildly bullish 'reverse' pattern to determine where the futures are likely to head next. Use the 22.71 target as a minimum upside projection for the near term. If it is easily exceeded, we can shift our sights up to the 23.94 'D' target of a larger reverse pattern. It can be located by placing the 'a' coordinate on the 23.93 low recorded on February 24.  That number looks likely to stymie bulls, but a decisive move through it would be the most positive sign we've seen in silver since February.

A pattern identical to gold's projects a rally to as high as 22.88 over the near term, although the latter has performed more bullishly recently. There have been no 'mechanical' buying opportunities since the futures bottomed ten days ago, but one would be signaled on a pullback on Monday to x=21.03. Bulls should be careful near 'D', since the target is sufficiently compelling to suggest a short-able pullback will occur there.

Silver's interminable dirge might not reverse until it falls to 19.20, the 'D' target of the pattern shown. Although it's possible the turn could come from as high as p2=20.23, that seems unlikely because of the relentless downward ratcheting that has characterized this mini-bear move. Initial price action at p=21.27 suggests that if and when the July contract comes down to 19.20, it will be possible to bottom-fish there with a very tight stop-loss. 'Mechanical' shorting opportunities may materialize in the meantime, but so far none of the rallies has been strong enough to set up the trade.

I've left Silver on the list this week only as a placeholder, since its chart says absolutely nothing to me. The corresponding chart in gold is somewhat more bullish, and I've said so.  However, it is not so bullish as to suggest it will pull silver higher any time soon. The July contract would need to push past the 'external' peak at 23.65 made on April 29 to get our attention, but until such time as that happens, expect meaningless feints in both directions as bulls and bears duke it out for control of...not much. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 10;05 p.m.); There's a bottom somewhere, although bulls could be pardoned for thinking this time may be the exception. Here's a chart that shows two possibilities, respectively, at 20.27, or 19.24 if any lower.