The sketchy impulse leg shown in the chart yields a picture whose discouragements are congruent with June Gold's. It is bullish overall, but the slight failure of the follow-through leg to reach the p midpoint resistance at 27.61 is telling. Strictly speaking, the futures did not trigger a 'mechanical' buy when they fell thereafter to the green line (x=24.58); nor did I suggest buying there. The question now is whether sellers will stop out the pattern's 'C' low at 21.56, gratuitously or otherwise. My hunch is they won't, but neither do I expect a robust recovery to p, let alone a move through it. We should keep an open mind nonetheless, since bullion has a nasty habit of looking like hell...until it doesn't.
Silver's rally fizzled, as so many of them do, stranding a 'mechanically' acquired long in limbo just above a 24.04 stop-loss. The sting would have caused little pain, however, since subscribers were advised to set up a 'camouflage' trigger when the futures first came down to the green line. I am anticipating a gratuitous dip below C=24.04 before bulls could attempt yet another charge for better or worse. The chart is such a mucking fess that I can offer no compelling downside targets. This suggests that the next upturn will come firm a 'discomfort' zone lying in the grey void between two prior lows.
May Silver's chart is somewhat more bullish than gold's because the C-D leg of the pattern shown has decisively penetrated the 25.83 midpoint resistance. That's notwithstanding the fact that the rally failed to surpass the important 'external' peak at 26.16 recorded two months ago. The p midpoint is the more challenging of the two obstacles, and its breach strongly implies buyers will handle the peak easily when the time comes. If that's what happens, look for the futures to continue their ascent to at least p2=26,73, or even to D=27.62. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 1:04 a.m.): A fall to x=24.93 would trip a 'mechanical' buy, stop 24.04. That implies entry risk of nearly $4500 per contract, meaning you'll need to execute the trade camo-style on a chart of 15-minute degree or less to get aboard without betting the ranch. _____ UPDATE (Apr 21, 11:27): The 'mechanical' buy suggested above was deeply underwater Thursday night. Several subscribers reported getting aboard, but none mentioned how, so I cannot offer much help with risk control. The trade has a 50% chance of working at this point, but even if it does, it's not going to be pretty.
The chart shown in the inset employs the same coordinates I've used in June Gold to produce a picture not quite as bullish but still promising. Gold has already poked above its red-line 'midpoint' Hidden Pivot, but silver has merely exceeded the green line (x) to signal a rally to at least p=30.76 theoretically. The thing to realize. however, is that the stab higher three weeks ago surpassed an 'external' peak, generating an impulse leg of weekly-chart degree that will not be easily reversed. That would require a drop below C=21.41 of the pattern -- possible but seemingly unlikely at this point. _______ UPDATE (Apr 11, 8:30 a.m. EDT): May Silver has finally launched toward the 25.83 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown here. It will serve as a minimum upside projection for the next day or two. As always, an easy move through this 'hidden' resistance would portend more upside to the next Hidden Pivot level, in this case the 'secondary' pivot at 26.73. ______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 4:52 p.m.): The rally topped out a penny above the 25.83 Hidden Pivot we were using as a minimum upside projection. No one mentioned this in the chat room, of course, but I lack the energy to admonish or cheerlead. Score it as yet one more tree that fell silently in the forest.
May Silver continues to plod higher, bound for the 28.12 target shown. We take nothing for granted in this vehicle, however, and so the futures will need to blow past p=26.34 with brio before we can confidently infer that more upside to 'D' is a done deal. We will also need to be conservative when boarding at the lows of the inevitable swoons, using 'camouflage' set-ups that meet all of our requirements. Last week we would have been done out of such an opportunity when the futures fell on Friday to the green line without having touched p=26.33. We'll wait for better set-ups or do nothing at all. ______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 11:38 p.m.): Today's wicked whipsaw generated a new point 'C' low to shape the pattern shown here. It'll work for trading and forecasting, but 'mechanical' entries with huge entry risk will require some small-pattern tricks to get aboard. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care.
Silver bulls shouldn't give the seemingly nasty selloff of the last two weeks a second thought, since it is correcting an impulse leg that surpassed no fewer than three significant peaks on the weekly chart, including a bad-ass 'external' at 26.87 recorded last July. In fact, even a selloff into the low $20s would not much change the bullish look of the long-term chart. It allows for a minimum projection of 34.74 and a maximum 40.12 (A=11.64 on 3/20.20). That last target has been validated theoretical with the print through x=26.08 two weeks ago. Here's a bullish pattern to guide you this week with Monday's action included. _______ UPDATE (Mar 24, 1:10 a.m.): Here's another bullish pattern, since Monday's low wrecked the previous one. It is not very impressive. _____ UPDATE (Mar 24, 11:01 p.m.): Buyers turned on the turboboost, all but clinching more upside to p=26.34, shown here. An easy push past it would shift our gaze up to D=28.13.
Use the arrestingly bullish pattern shown with high confidence in the weeks ahead, since it will allow you to do whatever you please with Silver, whether trading it or smugly anticipating its next move. It cannot miss because 1) it is so beautiful, featuring a spectacularly precise pullback from p=25.58, and 2) we are the only traders in the galaxy who know how to leverage it. The next possible 'buy' worth looking at would be a 'mechanical' at p=25.58, stop 24.19. Tune to the chat room, as always, for risk-mitigating details in real time. ______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 10:12 p.m.): The big picture pattern (inset), with vast spaces between levels, is intended only for subscribers familiar with Hidden Pivot tactics for greatly reducing risk. In this case, it amounts to about $28,000 on four contracts. A smaller, downtrending pattern, where a=27.39 on 3/9, suggest the low of this selloff will occur at or near 24.63. _______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 11:35 a.m.) As expected, the futures have taken a tradeable bounce from the 24.63 correction target drum-rolled above. The reversal occurred from within three cents of the Hidden Pivot, enabling at least one chat-room regular to report a profit on a partial exit. Whether the support will hold cannot be predicted at present, but if it gives way easily, that would be bearish, considering its compelling clarity. Here's a chart that shows the bounce so far.
Silver spent a couple of days last week building a base for an easy move to the 26.46 target shown. It has kept us confidently on the right side of the trend, even if the pattern from which it was derived yielded no opportune 'mechanical' buying opportunities on the hourly chart. The target can be shorted if you've made some bucks on the way up, but we should be more interested in how bulls handle the implied 'hidden' supply there. As always, a decisive move past 'D', particularly on first contact, would imply the trend is likely to continue. In the meantime, a pullback to the red line would trip an appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 24.74. We'll deal with risk-cutting if and when the requisite pullback occurs. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 10:01 a.m. EST): The futures topped overnight (suh-prize, suh-prize!) three tenths of a percent from the target flagged above, exhausting tradeable opportunities for the moment. Let's see how long it takes for bulls to reverse the correction and shred past the inconveniently timed high. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 8:54 p.m.): Not long at all, as it happens. You can use 27.54 as a minimum upside projection now, calculated by sliding 'A' down to Feb 3's 22.05 low. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 10:52 p.m.): The 'reverse' pattern shown in this chart gives silver an easy path to at least 29.75, but there are bigger conventional patterns that project even higher. A pullback to the green line (x=23.49), however unlikely, would trigger a juicy 'mechanical' buy. _______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 9:48 p.m.): Note to a chat-room denizen posted this evening: "Artie, are you or anyone else following Silver? The May futures fell nearly $2 after coming within a nickel of the 27.54 target flagged above, but no one seems to have noticed. I'd like
The corrective pattern shown may look too obvious to work well for trading purposes, but it nonetheless has technical perfection going for it: a perky little one-off 'A' high, three single-bar coordinates, and Hidden Pivot levels located smack dab in the Nowheresville of other traders' charts. That implies it will likely work for 'mechanical' shorts, timely trend-strength assessments and precisely located bids against the trend. Most immediately, we will be looking for more slippage to p=23.73, at least. Our trek through the woods over the next week promises to be easy and rewarding, so stay tuned to the chat room if silver is your bag. _______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 9:02 a.m.): Here's the new pattern generated by this morning's bull-trap stab higher. It too should work nicely for all purposes. _______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 11:59 p.m.): The decisive move through p on first contact implies the odds of a continuation to at least 26.46 are very good. A pullback to x=25.52 would trigger an appealing 'mechanical' buy, but I'd suggest doing so with a 'camo' set-up, since the implied entry risk on four contracts would be around $33,000. Nudge me in the chat room at the appropriate time and I'll be happy to provide more-detailed guidance. [Here's the chart, which I prepared last night but somehow neglected to include.]
Silver lags gold within the bullish framework of price action since mid-December. The 26.13 target of the pattern shown remains viable nonetheless and is no less likely to be achieved than it was last December, when the bull trade was first signaled. The pattern has produced one excellent 'mechanical' buy at 22.59 that would have yielded a profit of as much as $22,000 on four contracts, and it would likely produce another of the March contract were to revisit x=21.59. alternatively, if the futures continue higher, a pullback from p2 to p could be bought 'mechanically' with a textbook stop at 22.98. That implies about $16,000 of risk, so this gambit is for 'camouflageurs' only. _______ UPDATE (Feb 23, 11:36 p.m.): The very steep dive from a peak 50 cents below D=26.12 did not negate the target. If you are trading this vehicle 'mechanically,' I'd suggest waiting for a play at the green line instead of at the always-riskier red line. Here's the chart.
