Silver

Earlier, I used a continuous chart to project a potentially important top at 53.06. But because silver is flirting with possibly rally-stopping resistance $10 below that, I've used the December contract to produce a more precise target. It shows the futures to have slightly exceeded a target tied to a point 'A' low recorded in October 2023. However, there is a still higher target, unachieved, at 43.282 that comes from a lower 'A' at 21.992 notched seven months earlier. This is shown in the chart. I have used it to produce a bull market target at 43.282 that maxes out possibilities on the daily chart, although not the monthly. That is why we should pay close attention when the December contract hits 43.282, which it will. I expect a tradable stall there, although probably not a fatal one, because there will still be an outstanding target at 53.06.

The pattern shown is gnarly enough to give us high-confidence trades every step of the way. It has yielded two profitable trades so far: a conventional short from x=36.233, and a so-far moderately profitable long from p=35.695.  If sellers smash through p, you can use a reverse-pattern trigger to play a likely continuation down to at least p2=35.158. You can bottom-fish there if reversing a profitable short position; then place a tightly stopped bid down at D=36.620 for an eventual relapse. That would be the most appealing trade of the three proffered herein.

July Silver aborted a textbook 'mechanical' buy at 36.349 last week, a sign that there is something wrong below the surface despite the 12% rally in June from 33 to 37. Perhaps bulls just need a breather? SI is notorious for reversing after stopping out previous highs and lows. This is what it did on Friday, bouncing 50 cents after dipping a couple of ticks beneath the 35.580 low recorded on June 12. However, I doubt the reversal will get legs, since the move following the breach of a too-obvious support. We'll give it the benefit of the doubt nonetheless while stipulating that the uptrend must surpass three small peaks, the highest of them at 37.045, to regain our respect.

We can breathe easier when July Silver touches the pink line (p2=37.291) since that would make any one-level pullback a correction that we could buy 'mechanically'. It would also shorten the odds of further progress toward a 40.439 target that I've assured you will be achieved. In the meantime, the futures are in limbo, looking for a favorable gust to help things along. If July Gold achieves a comparable target at 3695 at the same time, the gold:silver ratio would stand at around 91, down significantly from recent highs above 100.

I almost never use conventional ABCD patterns any longer, but it's the only choice we have at the moment.  Fortunately, even lousy patterns that every pinhead and algo on earth see still work with respect to the predictive value of price action at p, the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p).  In this case, the decisive move through p=34.142 all but guarantees the rally will reach a minimum D=40.439. It seems odd that the freakish skew of the gold:silver ratio is about to end with so little fanfare, but in this case, all it will have taken to start bringing the two back into line is just a couple of extra-strong rallies in silver that went unmatched by gold.

Silver's long-term chart has been promising a run-up to at least 39.272 for years, but don't hold your breath. It's been stuck in an $8 range for more than a year, but bulls show little inclination to leave the comfort zone any time soon.  Moreover, you can see that even a $7 drop to the pattern's green line wouldn't have much impact on the big picture, even if investors would likely be feeling pretty disappointed by then. The most promising opportunity I can discern for bottom-fishing or augmenting a long-term position would come on a pullback to 30.033, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a corrective pattern projecting to as low as 26.058. The trade would be invalidated, however, by an upthrust exceeding 34.008. _______  UPDATE (Jun 3, 1:04 a.m. EDT): I'm just a tad skeptical about today's big rally, which fell six cents shy of the 34.995  'd' target of the super-gnarly reverse pattern shown. Let's stipulate that the futures close for two consecutive days above it, or trade above 35.800 intraday, before we assume they're headed significantly higher. 

Reaching d=35.982 shouldn't pose a problem, although we may be able to squeeze off a short from there, since it coincides with a voodoo resistance number. A two-day close above it would activate the 39.272 target of a larger pattern  (continuous weekly, A= 16.314 on 3/20/20). That chart has produced just one 'mechanical' buy signal, a profitable one from p=30.93, but a second dip to that price would be an appealing place to try again, stop 27.170. _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 12:50 a.m. EDT): Silver’s big move today nearly maxed out the gnarly reverse pattern shown with a blast to 34.935 that came within six cents of d=34.995. Yes, I am just skeptical enough that we'll keep the burden of proof on bulls for now, meaning they've got to close this brick above 34.995 for two consecutive days, or trade above 35.800 intraday, to earn our confidence. 

Silver has been engulfed by tedium, almost too painful to watch. A breakdown below the sawtooth action of the last several weeks should be presumed headed to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 30.200. A tightly stopped buy there would be warranted if you feel like bottom-fishing, but it could take a while before the futures signal the trade. Neither bulls nor bears could be very happy at the moment, which is usually Mr Market's cue to deliver more of the same.

The midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 32.493 has repelled three bear assaults, hinting that the futures want to go higher.  Notice that the first time the futures came down to the red line, setting up a 'mechanical' short at the green line (x=32.986), the trade produced a quick $2400 profit when it plummeted once again to the red line. But this appears to have spent sellers, and that's why the chart is bullish, at least for the near term. Since I've provided a 'best bet' for a tightly stopped bid in June Gold (see tout above), let me do the same for July Silver:  32.480, exactly 40 cents below where it was trading when the clock ran out on Friday's impacted action. ______ UPDATE (May 12, 5:05 p.m.) The nice thing about no one giving a rat's ass about Silver is that when Gold gets crushed as it did today, Silver does necessarily fall in sympathy.  It just might, however, so be prepared for a drop to 31.505 (60-min, A= 33.835 on 4/29). You can try bottom-fishing there with a very tight stop-loss if you know what you're doing.