Silver

The chart replicates the bullish pattern shown this week for gold (see above), although silver has yet to deliver any winning trades. Near-misses were another story, however, since the pattern would have yielded a theoretical $12,540 gain on a single contract if Thursday's 49.225 high had been just a slightly higher 49.328. The second of the two trades that would have resulted would have been a 'long' at the green line (x-48.074) that would have shown a small profit at the bell on Friday. (For details, check out my 21:21 post in the chat room Thursday night.)  Looking just ahead, I expect gold to pull silver higher when the week begins. That implies a push past p=49.328, followed by a run-up to at least p2=50.581, or to d=51.835 if any higher._______ UPDATE (Oct 27, 1:24 p.m.): This morning's plunge through the red line (p=46.650) means the downtrend is likely to continue to at least D=44.145.  This is even though the pattern is a conventional one that every trader on Earth is aware of. A bounce up to the green line (x=47.903)  should be shorted 'mechanically' with a small-pattern 'camo' trigger.

Silver signaled a potentially significant reversal Thursday night at the same time as gold, although I did not put out an additional trade recommendation in the wee hours as I did with Gold futures and GDXJ.  Both overshot Hidden Pivot correction targets on Friday, Silver by enough to make it a short-term prospect for shorting.  Do so gingerly, using the 50.945 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of the pattern shown.  You can pare the theoretical entry risk by at least 90% by using a reverse-trigger pattern fashioned from a chart of minute degree. I have explained this tactic many times, but if you are unfamiliar with my instructions, don't do the trade. You could attempt the short at d=52.230 as well. Whatever happens, buyers' progress through the Hidden Pivot levels shown on the chart can tell us much about whether the short-to-intermediate trend may have shifted to bearish. Please note that the Big Picture remains insanely bullish, and I mean that literally, since London deliveries reportedly are caught in a potentially fatal squeeze. A chronic shortage of 'physical' has persisted for years, and I am not sure why it took so long to blow up in the greedy faces of the white-collar carnies who run the game. Until now, it has been easy for them to borrow bullion for next to nothing, and to substitute 'paper' silver (and gold) whenever it suits them. Now they are on the ropes, realizing that Trump's free-market team is not about to rescue them. Perhaps their lucrative scheme is about to be undone by a bull market, much as a bear market undid Bernie Madoff's fraud. ______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 12:50 a.m.): The futures have bounced tentatively after plummeting 13% to support on the right side of a garden-variety head-and-shoulders pattern begun in early October.

A short squeeze on Silver in the London market has pushed quotes easily past a Hidden Pivot target at 50.955 that had seemed ambitious less than a week ago. This has put the December contract on course for additional gains up to D=55.185 over the near term.  Judging from the way buyers fist-pumped through the midpoint 'hidden' resistance at 50.943, they are no worse than an 80% shot to achieve D sometime soon. In the somewhat unlikely event of a felicitous swoon over the next 3-5 days, belated buyers should position themselves with a 'mechanical' bid at x=48.820, stop 46.695. ______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 10:35 a.m.): The fresh tout I put out last night at 10:20 p.m. (see above), nailed a quick, easy profit of $10,600 per contract. This graph shows how December Silver swooned overnight to a low at 48.75 that lay within 0.14% of the 'mechanical' bid I'd suggested. This means you would have endured no more than $350 of adversity to capture a gain of $10,600 (or an additional $3,300, for a total of $14,200, if you held out for the actual, overnight high at 51.160 that occurred somewhat above the red line). The 55.185 rally target remains valid as a minimum upside objective for the next two weeks.

The 49.835 target I'd billboarded here caught a nasty top within millimeters, allowing subscribers to get defensive just ahead of a $3.26 downdraft. Now, use the pattern shown to keep in step. It signaled no fewer than three trades on Friday: short at the green line; long on the reversal from the red line (p=46.988), and 'mechanically' short again at x=47.804. That last trade has yet to touch 46.966, where half the short could be covered, and there is no assurance the position will be a winner. Indeed, if bulls seize the advantage as the week begins, they will likely negate the pattern with a very bullish push above C=48.620.  Thereafter, use this pattern, with midpoint resistance at 48.828 and a 'D' target at 50.955.  Don't pass up an opportunity to buy 'mechanically' if the futures pull back to x after a run-up to our sweet spot.

The 53.05 target shown is the highest that can be projected for Silver on a long-term chart. It is unlikely to work precisely, since the chart is a blend of different contract months, and because the pattern itself will be too obvious to too many. Even so, the target is sufficiently compelling to suggest the Comex price will either top somewhere near there, or stall on the way to still greater heights. We can use 53.05 as a minimum objective in any event, since that stab through p2, the secondary pivot, left little doubt about the feistiness of silver bulls. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3): Assuming today's top at 48.325 endures for a day or two, try bottom-fishing with a tightly stopped bid at 47.175, a minor midpoint Hidden Pivot support.  An easy breach would portend more slippage to as low as 46.025. ________ UPDATE (Oct 6, 12:08 p.m. EDT): The pullback got no lower than 47.685 before silver took off again. The closest Hidden Pivot 'D target you can use for a minimum objective for the next couple of days is 49.835.

I am unfurling the yellow flag in Silver, since the December contract nearly maxed out bullish targets on the monthly with last week's rally to 43.435. That slightly exceeded a major Hidden Pivot target at 43.282 that I've since adjusted upward by a penny.  Notice that there is still an unused 'A' low at 19.340 from September 2022 that would yield a somewhat higher target at 45.944. Although it could eventually come into play, I doubt this would happen before the futures have corrected off the 43.292 target associated with the higher, one-off 'A' I've used. Don't go all-in if buyers start the week with a pop above last week's high. That's because there is a minor target at 43.585, or perhaps 43.770, that could repel the bullish herd. Either of these 'conventional' Hidden Pivots is shortable, provided you know how to set up a camouflage trigger that would limit entry risk to literal pocket change. ______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 4:14 p.m. EDT):  The futures have blown past every minor Hidden Pivot resistance on the intraday charts today, implying they are bound for a minimum 45.944, the target flagged above. _______ UPDATE (Sep 26, 11:42 a.m. EDT): Use the 48.635 target shown here as a minimum upside objective. December Silver has exceeded all major targets, so we are extending its immediate upside potential with the Hidden Pivot target of a smaller pattern, the only one we've got to work with at the moment. 

Earlier, I used a continuous chart to project a potentially important top at 53.06. But because silver is flirting with possibly rally-stopping resistance $10 below that, I've used the December contract to produce a more precise target. It shows the futures to have slightly exceeded a target tied to a point 'A' low recorded in October 2023. However, there is a still higher target, unachieved, at 43.282 that comes from a lower 'A' at 21.992 notched seven months earlier. This is shown in the chart. I have used it to produce a bull market target at 43.282 that maxes out possibilities on the daily chart, although not the monthly. That is why we should pay close attention when the December contract hits 43.282, which it will. I expect a tradable stall there, although probably not a fatal one, because there will still be an outstanding target at 53.06.

The pattern shown is gnarly enough to give us high-confidence trades every step of the way. It has yielded two profitable trades so far: a conventional short from x=36.233, and a so-far moderately profitable long from p=35.695.  If sellers smash through p, you can use a reverse-pattern trigger to play a likely continuation down to at least p2=35.158. You can bottom-fish there if reversing a profitable short position; then place a tightly stopped bid down at D=36.620 for an eventual relapse. That would be the most appealing trade of the three proffered herein.

July Silver aborted a textbook 'mechanical' buy at 36.349 last week, a sign that there is something wrong below the surface despite the 12% rally in June from 33 to 37. Perhaps bulls just need a breather? SI is notorious for reversing after stopping out previous highs and lows. This is what it did on Friday, bouncing 50 cents after dipping a couple of ticks beneath the 35.580 low recorded on June 12. However, I doubt the reversal will get legs, since the move following the breach of a too-obvious support. We'll give it the benefit of the doubt nonetheless while stipulating that the uptrend must surpass three small peaks, the highest of them at 37.045, to regain our respect.