Silver

Covering the remaining distance to the 37.305 target looks like it'll be a piece of cake. The pattern has yet to give a false signal, and any trade attempted with  x, p or p2  as a reference point would have been profitable. The last juicy buying opportunity occurred on the pullback to the green line (x=31.380), about as 'textbook as mechanical trades get. Your trading bias should be bullish until 37.305 is hit, but be prepared for a stall there and a pullback, probably tradable.

Comex Silver hasn't exactly shredded the midpoint resistance of the long-term pattern shown in the monthly composite chart. However, it has frolicked and danced there, suggesting that although bulls are in no great hurry to take the futures to as high as $53, they are determined to get there eventually. The target may not seem spectacular, and there are undoubtedly silver bulls hoping for a doubling of 2011's $50 top. That could still happen, but probably not before a lengthy and deep pullback from 53.06. First, let's allow bulls to turn the midpoint resistance into support with a patient consolidation above it.  Use 36.605, or 37.305 if any higher, as short-term rally targets. Both should evince a tradable pullback.

Silver and gold have not quite gone their separate ways, but the latter's chart looks much more bullish. May Silver came close to triggering a 'mechanical' short last week when it rallied to just shy of the green line (x=33.534; the stop-loss would be at 34.57). Regardless of whether it gets there, the burden of proof will be on bulls to sustain altitude. Returning to the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2=32.481) would almost surely grease the skids down to d=30.455. _____ UPDATE (Mar 12, 4:53 p.m.): Silver has taken a big leap this week, but let's hold the bubbly until such time as it pushes above 34.085. That's equal to an external peak recorded on Feb 20 whose breach would generate a fresh impulse leg of daily-chart degree.  In the meantime, assuming today's 33.815 high is not exceeded first, you could buy a pullback to 33.230 with stop-loss as tight as six cents.  _______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 7:49 a.m. EDT): A Hidden Pivot at 35.565 is the next logical rally target in my sequence, although a bigger picture yields 36.605 as a possibility. If I stretch all the way back to the 2008 low, I could see 42.705, or even 53.06. But no higher. These numbers will not be accurate to the penny because my coordinates come from 'blended' composite charts.

May Silver's cinder-block fall through p = 32.508, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart, leaves no doubt that further slippage to at least d = 30.455 awaits. Expect a tradable bounce from that number or very close to it, but don't bet the farm that the rally will achieve new highs above mid-February's 34.560 peak, let alone above October's at 35.800.  I've published a corresponding target for April Gold, so we're likely to have a verdict soon on whether the long-term bull market in bullion has stalled, or died.  I doubt the latter will occur, but we should be prepared, nonetheless, for a potentially painful correction into the high 20s.

We'll stay on high alert as March Silver ascends into thin air. Like gold's chart, the overall impression this one creates is of heavy distribution since last spring. A telling feature is the failure of the rally in early February to exceed mid-December's 'external' peak. That would have created a robust impulse leg, but it ultimately took another pullback and a running start to get it done. The short-term picture turned somewhat bearish with Friday's close beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 32.895 that had previously contained the downtrend from the Feb 14 high. Accordingly, you should look for more slippage to at least 32.450, or to 32.005 if any lower.

Silver quotes came down hard after an exhilarating run-up last week, trapping bulls and bears alike. I expect the selloff to hit 32.148 at least, but if that Hidden Pivot midpoint support is penetrated decisively on first contact, it would imply more slippage to 31.101, or possibly as low as 30.055.  The chart shown displays an in-your-face head-and-shoulders pattern, a bearish formation that is too ubiquitous and popular to be considered reliable. However, it does describe a distribution that has been occurring since June that will have created significant supply between here and new highs above October's 35.530 peak.

The March contract is poised for a breakout above an 'external peak at 33.330 recorded in mid-December. This would be quite bullish since it would activate a larger pattern that projects as high as 36.240. My minimum upside projection would be 34.46, the large pattern's secondary Hidden Pivot. The breakout was telegraphed a month ago when March Silver struggled to reach a 28.245 correction target. The futures went no lower than 29.145, implying that sellers were too depleted to finish the job. The more or less inevitable rally that followed was extremely choppy, suggesting there were plenty of skeptics and also daunting supply. Once above 33.33, however, bulls will have a clear path to highs above 35 unseen since 2012.

Silver's ascent last week was not as impressive as gold's, creating a minor divergence that seems likely to continue, at least for a short while.  However, the March contract would trigger a mechanical buy if it falls to p=31.945 when trading resumes Sunday afternoon. Using a reverse-pattern trigger, risk no more than 1,50 cents on the entry, but be prepared for more slippage to d=30.970 if the trade fails. If this pullback exceeds 'd', it would imply silver will pull gold down rather than the other way around.

The March contract first signaled a move to d=32.38 more than a month ago, on December 20. It has been a brutal slog since, lacking the brio we've seen lately in gold. Even so, it's difficult to imagine the futures not getting there, probably early in the week. A decisive pop through the Hidden Pivot would mitigate the sluggish feel of the chart, setting silver up for a less labored push toward December 12's 33.33 peak, and thence to the towering external peak at 35.53 recorded on October 22.