Silver

Although Silver looks likely to achieve the 32.380 Hidden Pivot rally target shown in the chart (and in last week's as well), it is not quite a done deal. Nevertheless, a pullback to the red line (p=30.763) could be bought 'mechanically' with a 30.244 stop-loss. It is unusual for me to suggest this trade, since we usually wait for a pullback to the green line. But there was such control and confidence in last week's ratcheting rally that we ought not to look for the exceptional opportunity that a retracement to the green line would provide.

We should give silver's tortuous bottoming action the benefit of the doubt, since gold looks bullish at the moment. The March contract reaffirmed a theoretical 'buy' signal on Friday with a pop through the green line (x=29.954), but it will need to fist-pump its way past the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 30.763 to demonstrate the rally's staying power. Because the reverse-pattern's point 'a' low is a 'locked' coordinate with no alternatives, the levels should work well for shorting or for bottom-fishing 'mechanically. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 8:35 p.m.): Buyers pierced the 30.763 midpoint resistance, but not decisively enough to clinch safe passage to d=32.380.  However, a return to the green line (x=29.954) no sooner than next week could be bought 'mechanically' with a 29.140 stop-loss. A 'camouflage' trigger is suggested to cut the $16,000 entry risk. 

The pattern shown has enough quirks that it should work precisely for bottom-fishing at D=28.185. That Hidden Pivot also makes a logical minimum downside target because of the downtrend's decisive penetration of p=30.728 on the way down. That is why the chart is somewhat more bearish than the one I have presented in gold with a 2500.00 target.  As exhilarating and encouraging as a silver rally to x=31.999 might seem at this time, it would actually trigger a 'mechanical' short with potential for tight risk management and good odds for success.

The March contract looked bound for at least p=30.763 when the music stopped on Friday. The pattern is sufficiently clear to keep us confidently on the right side of the trend and allow us to exploit it profitably with relatively little risk. Most immediately, that would imply getting short at p. The trade should be attempted only if you are comfortable using reverse-pattern triggers of small degree (aka 'camouflage').  If the rally hits our sweet spot between p and p2 straightaway and then pulls back to the green line, that would offer a back-up-the-truck opportunity to bottom-fish 'mechanically'.

The futures bottomed Friday at a key support, the 30.728 midpoint Hidden Pivot of a pattern that projects to as low as D=28.18. The pattern is gnarly enough to offer some potential trading opportunities, including bottom-fishing at p,  p= p2=29.456 or even D. Also, a rally from the sweet spot between p and p2 would set up an enticing 'mechanical' short from x=31.999, stop 33.275.  As always, a decisive penetration of the midpoint support (p=30.728) would portend more slippage to at least p2, or possibly D.

Last week's slight penetration of Nov 19's external high at 32.03 was bullish, although not very. It generated a weak impulse leg on the daily chart that implies any retracement this week that holds above 30.095 would be corrective and therefore a 'buy'.  A further push up to p=32.483 would certainly call for a tightly tightly tightly tightly stopped short, presumably with a 'camo' trigger fashioned from the 5- or 15-minute chart. My worst-case target is 29.160, a back-up-the-truck number for those of you who have been waiting since early November for a better buying opportunity (daily chart, a= 33.76 on 5-29-24).

A bearish target at 28.445 target that has been forever in coming now looks highly likely to be reached. The reverse pattern with which it associated is sufficiently gnarly that you can bottom-fish there with a very tight stop-loss, preferably crafted with a 'camouflage' (i.e., small-pattern) trigger.  Alternatively, the futures would signal an opportune 'mechanical' short on a rally to 31.880. That is a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance associated with a=30.440 (10-8, 180-minute) _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 4:09 p.m.): March Silver has tripped a theoretical buy signal with the potential to reach 34.870. The link is to a reverse pattern that I expect to work well for all purposes: buying, shorting, forecasting, determining trend strength. It is bullish that Silver has gotten traction, sort of, without having come down to the 28.455 target we were using to clock the correction. But the retest of the November 14 low should not have been necessary to jump-start Silver, and that will remain a concern until such time as the futures impale p=32.483, a key number for the near term.

The weekly chart makes a compelling case for more slippage to the 28.455 target we've been using as a minimum downside projection. The initial penetration of p=31.763 was decisive, and the subsequent selloff exceeded p2=30.109. This implies that we should short x=33.416 'mechanically' if a rally reaches it. There would be $5 potential in any subsequent drop, one of the juiciest trades we've seen in a long while. Profit aside, my point is that even a strong rally right now should be viewed with caution, if not outright skepticism. If you want to get long in the meantime, I'd suggest using the d target of a reverse pattern on the 60-minute chart or less.

The 28.455 target of the reverse pattern shown started out as my worst-case correction target, but now it is probably the best we can hope for. The initial downside penetration of p=31.763 was decisive but not sufficient to make the d target a lock-up.  It still isn't, but there's at least a 75% chance the futures will get there. The good news is that bottom-fishing at 28.455 is likely to produce a profit, even if the pattern is too obvious to engender a bounce precisely from that number, a Hidden Pivot support. If you're keen on getting short for the remainder of the ride, I suggest using rABC patterns on the hourly chart to set up 'mechanical' entry triggers. If you're curious about how this is done, stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time.