Silver

The reverse pattern shown is sufficiently authoritative to imply that July Silver is unlikely to dip significantly below the 28.815 Hidden Pivot target, at least not over the near-term. It took a brutal gang-bang by sellers to bring the futures down to the pattern's point 'C' low at 28.815, but the sleazeballs who manipulate silver's price were probably piqued by the increasingly shrill noise from bulls who felt that the metal's handlers were losing control.  Bottom-fishing will enjoy favorable odds this week, so stay tuned to the chat room and turn on your email notifications if you want to stay apprised.

Silver's continuous weekly chart is more encouraging as to whether an ambitious longtime rally target will be reached. The target, a Hidden Pivot, is 36.03, about 18% above, and the strong move in April past p=26.67 on first contact attests to the strong likelihood that more upside to D is coming.  The ascent looks too steep, however, to continue without a punitive correction. Regardless of whether the expected pullback comes down to 'mechanical' buying territory near p=26.67, we'll stay focused on the lesser charts to be ready for the turn.

Silver's chart offers more clarity and precise predictability than gold's. It could not be clearer that the July contract will fall to at least d=28.815 before it finds traction. That Hidden Pivot can be bottom-fished aggressively when it is reached, but the futures should be traded with a bearish bias in the meantime. That implies that a rally to the green line (x=31.76) should be treated as a great opportunity to get short, but also that a drop to p2=29.799 be bottom-fished as avidly as d. ______ UPDATE (May 28, 2:26 p.m. EDT): So much for clarity!  If anything is clear, it is that Silver's moon shot today is so powerful that it could only be a rebuke to the scumbags who have suppressed its price for so long. They have papered the market to avoid having to supply quantities of physical that are even remotely commensurate with demand. It is a small market relative to gold -- about one-tenth the latter's size -- but days like today cannot but fill gold bugs' heads with visions of a runway bull market. The conspiracy against gold's rise is a more powerful alliance, but their task will have grown more difficult if silver has broken from its moorings. For what it's worth, July Silver triggered a 'mechanical 'short at x=31.76. But I am NOT recommending the trade for reasons that this update should have made clear.  The signal looks quite promising, and so I'll be interested myself to see whether the rally subsides somewhat shy of stopping out the bearish reverse-pattern's 'c' high at 32.75. 

Silver's breakout last week above the watershed high at 30.94 recorded in August 2020 is the subject of my latest commentary. The move has opened a path to the pattern's 'D' target at 36.96, a Hidden Pivot resistance that looks capable of stopping the bull in its tracks, albeit not necessarily for good. For now, though, we should treat the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 32.42 with the same deference we give midpoint resistances (p) and supports. It can serve as a minimum objective for the moment, but also as a place to hedge or adjust long positions, or even to get short for a while. If buyers impale p2 on first contact, that would likely clinch a move to 36.96.

Silver stalled Friday precisely at the 29.00 midpoint of the bullish pattern shown. My gut feeling is that it will finish the week above this Hidden Pivot resistance, presumably bound for at least p2=30.37, and thence D=31.75.  These are relatively modest targets in comparison to longer-term charts that show upside potential to 36.03 and higher, but we'll take them one at a time, the better to keep risk under tight control as we augment and hedge positions on the way up.  If you're keen on trading this vehicle, please be vocal about it in the chat room.

Last week's tedium left July Silver with somewhat further to fall before sellers are likely to exhaust themselves. Specifically, the futures will need to come down to at least 25.90 for that to happen.  This appears likely due to the way the downtrend crushed the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 28.045 the first time sellers encountered it following mid-April's 30.19 peak.  There are no easy hooks for determining a trigger interval to bottom-fish, so we may have to calculate it in real time if and when the target is hit. Stay tuned to the chat room and your email Notifications if you care..

July Silver's weekly chart allows room for a 34% rally to 36.96.  In order to extrapolate a comparable move in gold, we need the help of an extremely gnarly pattern on the continuous monthly chart that projects a 28% rally to 2995.00 (A= 681.00 on 10/31/08, B=2063 on 8/31/20). More immediately, July Silver's correction from the 30.19 high recorded on April 12 appears bound for a minimum 25.90. (This would imply that gold's correction has further to go.) The provenance of this target is shown in the thumbnail chart. The decisive downside breach of the rABC pattern's midpoint pivot (28.04) implies not only that D=25.90 will be reached, but that an intervening rally to x=29.12 would offer a tempting opportunity to get short 'mechanically'.

The sharp bounce from p=27.71 puts a similar reversal in June Gold in a more bullish light. The latter has bounced without having touched the midpoint Hidden Pivot support, suggesting that sellers may have unfinished business. However, Silver reached its p support almost exactly, suggesting it has fully corrected the powerful uptrend begun from 22.19 in mid-February. On balance, I favor the more bullish interpretation, which suggests both vehicles are likely to take out their respective recent highs without first exceeding last week's lows.  My rally target remains 30.08, a Hidden Pivot that's equivalent to a 2514.60 target in June Gold.

Precious metals got bludgeoned on Friday after a strong rally spiked this vehicle to 29.90 around 11:15. The downdraft should not have caught any of you by surprise, since we were already using a 1.09 trigger interval (TI) to warn if intraday weakness looked likely to snowball. It did, but some subscribers might have used the alert not merely to exit or reduce long positions, but to go short. This would have occurred at 28.81, with half of the position still to be covered a 27.72, about 23 cents off the closing low. That is also my minimum downside projection at the moment, the p midpoint support of the corrective pattern shown. As always, an easy move through this Hidden Pivot it would portend more slippage to p2=26.61, the secondary Hidden Pivot. ______ UPDATE (Apr 15, 3:50 p.m.): The futures are perfectly synched with the forecast, having come down to 27.67 this morning before trampolining to a recovery high of 28.98 so far. If they take out C=29.90 without having corrected any lower than 27.67, that would imply this bull run is bound for the next important Hidden Pivot resistance. It lies at 30.08, only slightly above the recent high at 29.90, so the utmost caution is advised when it gets there.  The target is drawn from the weekly chart, where A=18.71 on 9-30-22.