Monday, June 6, 2005

Need Reasons To Be Bullish?

– Posted in: Current Touts

It's no secret: I'd rather be known as a child molester than keep company with CNBC's bull-pen regulars. Let me tick off some of the reasons why we should shun the mindless optimism that these days passes for hard analysis on the Street: 1) the economy is being propped up by record borrowing; 2) a monstrous housing bubble could pop at any time; 3) two of the country's largest manufacturers, GM and Ford, are seriously on the ropes; 4) the Fed has already tightened eight times; 5) Europe is increasingly becoming a drag on global GDP; 6) Japan is slipping yet again into deflationary coma; 7) energy quotes are once more on the rise, threatening to establish a floor at $50 a barrel; 7) the yield curve is flattening; 8) etcetera, etcetera. So why am I bullish at the moment? Because most of my stock charts are pointing higher, is why. Take the one of the Dow Industrials below, which updates a picture that appeared here on May 24 alongside a forecast for a tediously buoyant summer. The chart shows that higher price peaks have been matched by correspondingly higher stochastic peaks over the last several months. In technical parlance, this is a 'non-divergence,' and it suggests to me that the current, bullish trend is likely to continue, at least for a while. It also argues against the likelihood of an out-of-nowhere collapse in share prices, a possibility that has been bandied about by several quite respectable market technicians whose work has been brought to my attention recently by some of my own evidently anxious subscribers. Do I care what the other gurus are thinking? Not at all. In fact, I'm convinced that resolutely tuning out all such noise has boosted the accuracy and consistency of my forecasts greatly in