Monday, May 1, 2006

Gold Taunts Meek Buyers

– Posted in: Current Touts

While I've expressed mild skepticism in the past that an ounce of gold will eventually change hands for $10,000, there is no longer much room to doubt that the old high at $850 is destined to fall. How long it will take for prices to blow past that peak and hit $1,000? Count me among the lunatics on this question, since I think it's going to happen well before the end of the year and perhaps even before autumn. How can I be so sure? Simply because of the way gold's fleeting lows continue to elude hesitant buyers. Clearly, many would-be investors are holding back in hopes of significantly lower prices. This is simply human nature. After all, if they couldn't bring themselves to buy the stuff at $400, or at $500, how can they possibly justify paying $656 for it today? So, these johnny-come-latelies continue to wait for a BIG correction. Not just a $40 selloff like the one we saw a week or so ago, but a full-blown avalanche that presumably would bring gold down to 'affordable' levels in just a few short weeks. A word of advice: Don't hold your breath. Gold might sell off hard for a few days, or maybe even chop lower for a week or two, but that will be about as good as it gets for bargain hunters. And here's some more bad news for procrastinators: Even when bullion does get slammed, it will never come down to whatever levels you thought would constitute a 'bargain'. (Click on chart to enlarge) It's a seller's market now and you had better get used to that fact, since it's going to be that way for a while to come. Take a look at the chart above, which shows how the bull market unfolded in JDS Uniphase, a tech-bubble favorite.