Tuesday, May 9, 2006

Real Estate Fear Goes Mainstream

– Posted in: Current Touts

The article below, from Fortune, is important because it shows that at least one big-circulation, mainstream business magazine is capable of speaking bluntly about the coming real estate crash. Granted, it includes a disclaimer of sorts in the sixth paragraph ' the obligatory warning to 'take-a-deep-breath' if everything you've read up to that point sounds a little too scary. And it presents a very alarming statistic without becoming duly alarmed ' namely, that the two-dozen U.S. cities that constitute the 'bubble zone' account for fully 60 percent of the nation's residential real estate value. But Fortune's head, at least, is in the right place, even as many other news sources, including The Wall Street Journal, continue to quote respectfully the dwindling bunch of shameless bozos who insist that there is no real estate bubble. Rick's Picks readers should be familiar by now with my deflationist arguments to the contrary, but I've reiterated several of them that are especially relevant at the end of the piece. Here, first, is the article, with a New York dateline and Shawn Tully's byline: Sellers Drop Prices The stories keep piling up. In many once-sizzling markets around the country, accounts of dropping list prices have replaced tales of waiting lists for unbuilt condos and bidding wars over humdrum three-bedroom colonials. The message is clear. Five years of superheated price gains rescued America from stock market collapse, put billions in consumers' pockets, and ignited a building boom that bolstered the nation's economy. But it's over. The great housing bubble has finally started to deflate. You won't find that news in broad national statistics or the upbeat comments from the real estate industry. The latest official figures, for example, show both new and existing home sales rising in March, a mixed bag on prices - and a