Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Gold Shakeout: Quick & Nasty?

– Posted in: Current Touts

Via the bulletin launcher, I disseminated a precise correction target yesterday for June Gold as well as a recommendation to buy bullion futures (or the equivalent thereof) aggressively if and when the target is reached. If the hidden-pivot support works as anticipated and the futures trampoline from it, the correction will have amounted to nine percent from recent highs. That's a pretty steep move, occurring as it will have over the course of just a couple of days, but it would hardly be extraordinary. Naturally, there is a possibility the June contract will reach the target and continue falling. But that would have little financial consequence for us, since our 'buy' order will be linked to a very tight stop-loss. Besides, any such breach of the support would yield additional and possibly actionable information concerning the strength and likely duration of the pullback. Usually, we infer that if a pivot is exceeded even slightly, the trend will continue at least to the next. Keep in mind as well that a pullback to as low as $613, a roughly 16 percent drop if measured from the recent high, would not even dent the bullish case from a technical standpoint, since it would merely mark a 0.618 correction of the rally from mid-March's lows near $540. Selloff No Surprise Fortunately, as nasty as this shakeout has been, it should not have caught any readers by surprise, since it is closely in line our warning less than a week ago under the headline 'Yellow Flag Out for Gold Bulls'. For the record, a perhaps even more urgent warning was disseminated in yesterday's Touts concerning the stock market. Specifically, we zeroed in on a visually obscure but nonetheless crucial support for the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQQ), inferring that its breach, even if slight, would hold dire implications