I could just about puke every time I get a promotional teaser in the mail from some guru bragging about his last Big Score. The put-and-call svengalis are the worst of the bunch -- and I would know, having traded options myself for more than 30 years, twelve of them on the floor of the Pacific Exchange. I always double-check the hype, and here is what I have determined: There is not a single option guru in America ' at least none of the dozens of whom I am aware -- who even comes close to living up to his promotional claims. You snake-oil peddlers know who you are ' and by all means, please do correct me if I've got it wrong. That's why I don't make any claims for myself ' no P&L figures, now drawdown stats, no Sharpe ratios. Once you get started, it's like entering politics: You turn into a lying bastard the day you're elected. And besides, what does a guru's theoretical success have to do with the performance of his subscribers? Not much, usually. Take it from Jesse Livermore: 'No sir, nobody can make big money on what someone else tells him to do. I know from experience that nobody can give me a tip or a series of tips that will make more money for me than my own judgment.' My Deep Dark Secret My deep dark secret is that I am a lousy trader, so obsessed with avoiding risk that I will bail out of a trade, or not initiate one, if it exceeds my rule-based limits by mere pennies. But my forecasts are something else, for sure ' as accurate, I will warrant, as any you can find ' and that is why I often joke in Rick's Picks that while
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