Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Optimist, or Doorknob?

– Posted in: Current Touts

Yesterday's sharp plunge looked like a prelude to�well, nothing, actually.  You don't have to be a chartist to see that the entire 184 points of Tuesday's decline failed by a country mile to take out last week's lows in the Dow. For that reason, it barely qualified as a bearish impulse leg on the 15-minute chart, much less the 'daily.' That's what gratuitous volatility is all about: Swings get larger and larger, until even a 300-point day in the Dow can be said to have occurred within a range that is technically meaningless.   (Click on chart to enlarge)   Of course, that will never discourage the punditry from trying to imbue with meaning seismic jitters such as we witnessed yesterday. They chalked up the decline to a downtick in consumer confidence, and to less-than-robust May sales for Wal-Mart. Oh, and did I mention that that on-again, off-again red herring, the 'fear' of inflation, was said to be a factor as well? Just try to sell the inflation argument to the real estate speculator in Tampa who's having trouble flipping a condo for less than he paid for it.   Amateur Scavengers   Speaking of real estate, I received a flurry of letters from a lurker, Frank P., who seems determined to convince me that all things connected with the economy and the housing market are simply hunk-dory. Coincidentally, a front page story in the Wall Street Journal yesterday described how amateurs are starting to move in on bankrupt homeowners, scavenging for bargains just as they've been inspired to do by those get-rich-quick infomercials that run every night, all night long, on the telly. How comforting it is to think that these enterprising bottom-fishers, many of whom could not have qualified for a CETA job, are cushioning the U.S. economy