Monday, October 2, 2006

Managing Risk In Gold Futures

– Posted in: Current Touts

The chat room at Rick's Picks continues to be a great place to hang out for anyone wanting to keep close tabs on bullion and precious-metal shares intraday, or to manage the risk in either. Consider the following snippet, reproduced almost exactly as it appeared on the Web site. (Note: All names have been changed for reasons of privacy.) The dialogue was posted to the chat room shortly after 11 a.m. Eastern. Gold was trading slightly north of $601, having fallen sharply from an opening that ranged as high as $607.50: (Click on either image to enlarge) Now check out the chart: An Australian in the room, trading at the bedtime end of his day, announced that he was filled at 599.60, using a stop-loss at 599.10 (!) -- so tight that an outside observer might have chastised him for breaking a conventional rule: 'Give yourself some room!' But in this case, the microscopic, 50-cent stop-loss proved to be more than enough, since the actual low was just 10 cents (one tick) below where the Oz trader said he'd gotten in. He announced that he was raising his stop-loss to break-even when Gold started to move higher, and then he and another trader posted that they had exited intraday, presumably with a profit. A third trader said he had been short the December Gold futures but covered and went long three contracts at the very bottom. 'I will tell everyone I know who trades,' he promised. Some Caveats Of course, these apparent successes offer no guarantee that things will go anywhere near as well for Rick's Picks chat-room traders in the future. And no matter how accurate the forecasts, there will always be substantial risk connected with trading futures contracts and other vehicles under discussion, including stocks, options and indexes. To be