Wednesday, October 4, 2006

Error in Newmont Costs Us Little

– Posted in: Current Touts

Skepticism continues to be our most potent defense these days against losing our shirts in the precious metals sector. That, and more than the usual amount of caution, since Gold's worst correction in many a year shows no sign of ending. How else to trade an asset class that in mere weeks could be down a further 15 percent -- or up 25 percent, for that matter? (Click on chart to enlarge) Using the December Comex contract, we earlier identified downside risk over the near-term to as low as $513, an important Hidden Pivot support. But suppose we are flat-out wrong and bullion is about to complete a double-bottom launching pad near $546, equal to an important low recorded last June, or perhaps even more imminently near another support at $576? Is it possible to be prepared for either scenario ' fly or die ' and to profit no matter which pans out? The answer is a qualified yes, but only if we go about it with as much discipline and caution as we can bring to the game. Bottom-less Yesterday, for instance, some chat-room denizens went bottom-fishing in Newmont Mining, using a worst-case downside target of 41.17 that had been highlighted in the Current Touts section of Rick's Picks. The stock would have needed to fall by at least $2.02 yesterday to bring NEM down to our level. As it happened, Newmont plummeted from the opening bell, eventually falling almost precisely to the pivot. There, the stock noodled around for a while -- about half an hour -- before the floor gave way, sending it still lower, to an intraday bottom at 40.86. Judging from the play-by-play discussion in the chat room that accompanied Newmont's dive, traders who used the 41.17 pivot as a place to nibble didn't stick