The outlook for Gold is a pressing concern in the Rick's Picks chat room on most days. Indeed, if bullion prices move merely a few dollars either way, I'm likely to be asked whether my outlook has changed significantly. Take yesterday, for instance. The December Comex contract was in the throes of a $10 rally, seemingly bucking my prediction in the day's commentary that gold would continue to move more or less in tandem with oil. But with oil down and gold up around mid-morning, did this mean the two had un-coupled? In a word, no. I still think that lower crude oil price over the near term are going to pull the POG down, notwithstanding occasional periods when these two commodities will appear to be going their separate ways. (In fact, gold got back in step with oil by day's end, giving up most of the gains from earlier in the session.) Readers will already know that I have flagged a Hidden Pivot target at $513 as my minimum downside objective for the December contract. That's a little more than 10 percent below current levels, and I estimate that the target has about a 75 percent chance of being achieved. Could I be wrong? Of course I could. But even if so, we would not necessarily miss much of the next big rally, provided I am able to see it coming. (Click on chart to enlarge) The 'Bull-o-Meter' The chart above shows exactly how subtle a turn it would take to register on my 'bull-o-meter'. Read the comments below before you peruse the chart. For me, at least, the coldly objective criteria I use to determine which way the wind is blowing provides a worry-free outlook not just on gold, but on the entire precious metals complex, as well
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